Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>KTX switches to a Buy rating (vs. Outperform previously), with a 12M FV of Bt62.17, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 4.6%, reflecting the PER target of 22x.</li><li>This FV implies upside of around 10%.  The valuation metrics suggest a more positive view on the fundamentals, and the tactical downside risk is limited.</li><li>Meanwhile, the long-term growth prospects are strong, with the three-year earnings expected to achieve a 22% CAGR.</li></ul>

KTX switches to a Buy rating (vs. Outperform previously), with a 12M FV of Bt62.17, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 4.6%, reflecting the PER target of 22x.This FV implies upside of around 10%.  The valuation metrics suggest a more positive view on the fundamentals, and the tactical downside risk is limited.Meanwhile, the long-term growth prospects are strong, with the three-year earnings expected to achieve a 22% CAGR.

Cp All - 2Q24E Core Profit to Grow 30% YoY but Fall 3% QoQ

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Recent meetings of major global central banks have revealed differing policy directions.</li><li>While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained its strict tightening monetary policy to keep inflation within the target range.</li><li>These divergent policies have triggered short-term fund inflows toward the US. We recommend a trading buy on the SET and suggest CK, BEM and CPALL, which are benefitting from economic stimulus measures, including the acceleration of budget disbursement and the Digital Wallet project. </li></ul>

Recent meetings of major global central banks have revealed differing policy directions.While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained its strict tightening monetary policy to keep inflation within the target range.These divergent policies have triggered short-term fund inflows toward the US. We recommend a trading buy on the SET and suggest CK, BEM and CPALL, which are benefitting from economic stimulus measures, including the acceleration of budget disbursement and the Digital Wallet project. 

Economic Update: Central Banks >>> FED & ECB

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-axtra-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on inflation in Thailand and the Philippines, a sector view on EVs in ASEAN and the 14 top picks in ASEAN from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-andrew-stotz-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756" rel="noopener">Dr. Andrew Stotz.</a>
</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights in Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ), CP Axtra (CPAXT TB), and Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP).
There were also macro insights on inflation in Thailand and the Philippines, a sector view on EVs in ASEAN and the 14 top picks in ASEAN from Dr. Andrew Stotz.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Alfamart Uncut, CP Axtra Revealed, and Jardine Matheson

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-axtra-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)</a> is a merger upon a merger combining the Makro wholesale business and the Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses, along with a hybrid mall operation. </li>
<li>The combined entity continues to realise operational synergies in sourcing and logistics, with a strong B2B element. Omnichannel makes up more than 16% of sales and is growing rapidly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-axtra-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5577:1" rel="noopener">CP Axtra (CPAXT TB)</a> provides an alternative retail exposure to its parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> with ongoing restructuring benefits still to be realised. Valuations look attractive relative to growth.  </li>
</ul>



CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) is a merger upon a merger combining the Makro wholesale business and the Lotus hypermarket and supermarket businesses, along with a hybrid mall operation. 
The combined entity continues to realise operational synergies in sourcing and logistics, with a strong B2B element. Omnichannel makes up more than 16% of sales and is growing rapidly.

CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) provides an alternative retail exposure to its parent CP ALL (CPALL TB) with ongoing restructuring benefits still to be realised. Valuations look attractive relative to growth.  


<ul><li>We initiate our coverage on CPALL with an Outperform rating (FV: Bt60.94) based on a required rate of return of 4.23%, reflecting a PER target of 23.7x.</li><li>KTX’s valuation metrics suggest that the share price is below the fair value, while the long-term outlook is strong, with an expected 22% CAGR in the next three years.</li><li>The tactical view is neutral.</li></ul>

We initiate our coverage on CPALL with an Outperform rating (FV: Bt60.94) based on a required rate of return of 4.23%, reflecting a PER target of 23.7x.KTX’s valuation metrics suggest that the share price is below the fair value, while the long-term outlook is strong, with an expected 22% CAGR in the next three years.The tactical view is neutral.

Cpall - Quality Earnings; Strong Financial Position; Attractive Valuation

Thailand

CP ALL PCL operates convenience store chains in Thailand and China.  The Company also owns and operates the a department store chain located primarily in Shanghai city and Chonqing city of China.

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CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)

Cp All - 2Q24E Core Profit to Grow 30% YoY but Fall 3% QoQ

KTX switches to a Buy rating (vs. Outperform previously), with a 12M FV of Bt62.17, based on the earnings yield and a required return of 4.6%,...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: Central Banks >>> FED & ECB

While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained...

Krungthai XSpring

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Alfamart Uncut, CP Axtra Revealed, and Jardine Matheson

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) - Symbiotic Alliance

CP Axtra (CPAXT TB) provides an alternative retail exposure to its parent CP ALL (CPALL TB) with ongoing restructuring benefits still to be...

Angus Mackintosh

Cpall - Quality Earnings; Strong Financial Position; Attractive Valuation

We initiate our coverage on CPALL with an Outperform rating (FV: Bt60.94) based on a required rate of return of 4.23%, reflecting a PER target of...

Krungthai XSpring

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