European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CPI controls now 82.67% of the voting rights, with an additional acceptance period running until 18 November, at €22.85 adjusted offer price. CPI does not intend to seek a squeeze out/delisting.</li>
<li>I believe that ultimately CPI, Immofinanz and S IMMO will merge, potentially making CPI one of the largest players in Europe in a transformative deal.</li>
<li>A conservative valuation, economic profit-based, would be €24.7/share, 15% discount to EPRA NTA. It may be worth buying below the offer price and holding onto the shares. Gross spread: 0.22%.</li>
</ul>


CPI controls now 82.67% of the voting rights, with an additional acceptance period running until 18 November, at €22.85 adjusted offer price. CPI does not intend to seek a squeeze out/delisting.
I believe that ultimately CPI, Immofinanz and S IMMO will merge, potentially making CPI one of the largest players in Europe in a transformative deal.
A conservative valuation, economic profit-based, would be €24.7/share, 15% discount to EPRA NTA. It may be worth buying below the offer price and holding onto the shares. Gross spread: 0.22%.


<ul>
<li>CPI, directly and indirectly, owns 42.6% in S Immo and seeks to launch a €23.5 mandatory offer if a 15% voting cap in S IMMO's by-laws is removed.</li>
<li>CPI has Board support. AGM will take place on 1 June. Although S IMMO trades at a large discount to NAV, interloper risk is low.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.3%. Assuming clearances are obtained, and offer settled by 1 August, estimated annual return would be 5.5%. Long SPI AV.</li>
</ul>


CPI, directly and indirectly, owns 42.6% in S Immo and seeks to launch a €23.5 mandatory offer if a 15% voting cap in S IMMO's by-laws is removed.
CPI has Board support. AGM will take place on 1 June. Although S IMMO trades at a large discount to NAV, interloper risk is low.
Gross spread is 1.3%. Assuming clearances are obtained, and offer settled by 1 August, estimated annual return would be 5.5%. Long SPI AV.


CPI/S IMMO: Agreement Regarding EGM and Offer

<ul>
<li>CPI has revealed a 55.07% stake in Immofinanz. The additional acceptance period will end on 28 May. CPI will likely continue purchasing shares in the market.</li>
<li>CPI now also controls 42.55% of S Immo. A combined CPI/Immofinanz/S Immo would have €24bn assets. Scale and sound capital management may bring handsome profits in the longer term.</li>
<li>Immofinanz's shares offer 5.1% 23e FFO yield. Gross spread to offer price is 0.6%. The convertible spread is c.2%. My TP is €25.86/share, 12.2% discount to EPRA NTA. Long IIA VA. </li>
</ul>


CPI has revealed a 55.07% stake in Immofinanz. The additional acceptance period will end on 28 May. CPI will likely continue purchasing shares in the market.
CPI now also controls 42.55% of S Immo. A combined CPI/Immofinanz/S Immo would have €24bn assets. Scale and sound capital management may bring handsome profits in the longer term.
Immofinanz's shares offer 5.1% 23e FFO yield. Gross spread to offer price is 0.6%. The convertible spread is c.2%. My TP is €25.86/share, 12.2% discount to EPRA NTA. Long IIA VA. 


CPI/Immofinanz: Additional Acceptance Period, S Immo

<ul>
<li>CPI advances in its takeover and already owns 19.25% of the share capital of Immofinanz, with 28.92% conditionally contracted (at €23/share), thus a combined stake of 48.18% of Immofinanz. </li>
<li>The raised offer price also represents 19.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, 18.4x Fwd P/E, 22.9x deal value/Est. FFO and 76.7% deal value/consensus NAV (source Capital IQ), still not recommended by Immofinanz's Board.</li>
<li>Immofinanz trades at at 4.3% 22e FFO yield and 3.4% 22e dividend yield. My TP, economic profit based is €25.86/share, 12.2% discount to EPRA NTA. Recommendation is long IIA AV.</li>
</ul>


CPI advances in its takeover and already owns 19.25% of the share capital of Immofinanz, with 28.92% conditionally contracted (at €23/share), thus a combined stake of 48.18% of Immofinanz. 
The raised offer price also represents 19.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, 18.4x Fwd P/E, 22.9x deal value/Est. FFO and 76.7% deal value/consensus NAV (source Capital IQ), still not recommended by Immofinanz's Board.
Immofinanz trades at at 4.3% 22e FFO yield and 3.4% 22e dividend yield. My TP, economic profit based is €25.86/share, 12.2% discount to EPRA NTA. Recommendation is long IIA AV.


CPI/Immofinanz: CPI Matches S Immo's Offer and Secures Another Stake

<ul>
<li>Immofinanz recommends shareholders neither accept S Immo's €23/share partial offer, nor CPI's €22.7/share for the whole share capital (both cum dividend). CPI controls (pending approvals) 35.5% of Immofinanz.</li>
<li>Crossed shareholdings and poor use of capital among Austrian real estate players put a lid on their stock market performance, nevertheless Immofinanz's discount to NAV is steadily approaching pre-Covid levels.</li>
<li>The shares of Immofinanz look good value in my view, at 4.3% 22e FFO yield, 21% discount to EPRA NTA, with the potential upside from an improved CPI's offer.</li>
</ul>


Immofinanz recommends shareholders neither accept S Immo's €23/share partial offer, nor CPI's €22.7/share for the whole share capital (both cum dividend). CPI controls (pending approvals) 35.5% of Immofinanz.
Crossed shareholdings and poor use of capital among Austrian real estate players put a lid on their stock market performance, nevertheless Immofinanz's discount to NAV is steadily approaching pre-Covid levels.
The shares of Immofinanz look good value in my view, at 4.3% 22e FFO yield, 21% discount to EPRA NTA, with the potential upside from an improved CPI's offer.


Luxembourg

CPI Property Group SA is a real estate group. The Company focuses on investment properties, realizes development potentials and offers full-service asset management for third parties.

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Cpi Property Group Sa (O5G GR)

CPI/S Immo: Additional Acceptance Period

CPI (R. Vitek) is succeeding where others have failed and controls S Immo (82.67% voting rights) and Immofinanz (76.86% voting rights). The...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CPI/S IMMO: Agreement Regarding EGM and Offer

The ned of the Austrian real estate takeover saga seems closer to an end. CPI may succeed where others have failed and may be able to merge CPI...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CPI/Immofinanz: Additional Acceptance Period, S Immo

CPI now holds 55.1% of Immofinanz. The three month additional acceptance period runs until 28 May and will provide support for the shares. Gross...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CPI/Immofinanz: CPI Matches S Immo's Offer and Secures Another Stake

CPI is determined to win where other have lost and now controls (conditional on merger clearance) 48.18% of Immofinanz share capital.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CPI/Immofinanz: Raised Offer

The saga continues. Immofinanz recommends shareholders neither accept S Immo's partial €23 offer, nor CPI's €22.7 for the whole share capital (both...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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