Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Recent signs of economic weakness in the US is a believable narrative for the current weakness</li>
<li>OPEC +  announcement on increasing production adds to the noise</li>
<li>Weakness spreads from the energy sector to other commodity sectors</li>
</ul>


Recent signs of economic weakness in the US is a believable narrative for the current weakness
OPEC +  announcement on increasing production adds to the noise
Weakness spreads from the energy sector to other commodity sectors


Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Commodities

<ul><li>Brent crude has weakened by $10 since early April, with the prompt time spread indicating plentiful supply relative to consumption</li><li>Demand for crude oil for combustive fuels like gasoline and diesel is expected to peak towards the end of the decade, while demand for natural gas liquids used in petrochemical production is set to rise</li><li>Preliminary demand data for April showed signs of improvement, with observable oil inventories increasing, particularly in China, due to lower oil prices prompting stockpiling</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Brent crude has weakened by $10 since early April, with the prompt time spread indicating plentiful supply relative to consumptionDemand for crude oil for combustive fuels like gasoline and diesel is expected to peak towards the end of the decade, while demand for natural gas liquids used in petrochemical production is set to risePreliminary demand data for April showed signs of improvement, with observable oil inventories increasing, particularly in China, due to lower oil prices prompting stockpilingThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.</li><li>The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.</li><li>Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead.The cocktail of better economic activity and geopolitical tensions provided tailwinds for our long crude bet, which reached its take profit level Tuesday, and hence we are out of our oil position with a significant profit.Most notably, and reflecting our still cyclically tilted portfolio allocations, we see growth trending higher in the cyclical parts of the economy through April on our models and nowcasts.

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Even though the Santa rally in US STIRS has largely been reversed, markets are still pricing in 2.5 full cuts by the end of this year or so with the first to come around summer time.</li><li>Currently, one of the most unappreciated risks by markets would be the Fed actually hiking rates in 2024 and thus we thought we would present 6 compelling and thought provoking arguments for why the Fed hiking in 2024 might not be impossible after all (our base case is a hold).</li><li>The first argument has to do with year-on-year inflation seemingly having reached its equilibrium at 3%, a range in which it has found itself for the last year or so.</li></ul>

Even though the Santa rally in US STIRS has largely been reversed, markets are still pricing in 2.5 full cuts by the end of this year or so with the first to come around summer time.Currently, one of the most unappreciated risks by markets would be the Fed actually hiking rates in 2024 and thus we thought we would present 6 compelling and thought provoking arguments for why the Fed hiking in 2024 might not be impossible after all (our base case is a hold).The first argument has to do with year-on-year inflation seemingly having reached its equilibrium at 3%, a range in which it has found itself for the last year or so.

Out of the Box: 6 Reasons the Fed Will Be Hiking Rates in 2024

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Negative roll yield killing BCOM returns, even as spot has performed OK</li><li>We need to see some serious stimulus out of China for broad commodities to rally</li><li>Macro data turning bullish in shipping and the Container output from Shanghai is showing signs of a STRONG rebound</li></ul>

Negative roll yield killing BCOM returns, even as spot has performed OKWe need to see some serious stimulus out of China for broad commodities to rallyMacro data turning bullish in shipping and the Container output from Shanghai is showing signs of a STRONG rebound

Commodity & Shipping Watch: Time to get back into the shipping bets?

United States

Commodity Research Bureau BLS Spot Indices. CRB BLS Spot Indices base: (1967=100)

CRB Commodity Index (CRB CMDT INDEX)

Is that It? Commodity Bull Market Over?

Recent US economic data points to potential weakness impacting energy and other commodity sectors, while OPEC+ actions muddies the waters.

Rikki Malik

Global Commodities: Demand for Oil Is Good, Just Not for Crude

The decline in Brent crude prices due to weakening spreads and a shift in demand towards petrochemicals and natural gas, accompanied by signs of...

At Any Rate

Portfolio Watch: The Real World Is Reflating Again

Welcome to this week’s rundown of our portfolio, its performance, and our most clear-cut conviction for the period ahead. The cocktail of better...

Steno Research

Out of the Box: 6 Reasons the Fed Will Be Hiking Rates in 2024

Even though the Santa rally in US STIRS has largely been reversed, markets are still pricing in 2.5 full cuts by the end of this year or so with...

Steno Research

Commodity & Shipping Watch: Time to get back into the shipping bets?

Negative roll yield killing BCOM returns, even as spot has performed OKWe need to see some serious stimulus out of China for broad...

Steno Research