Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is another EUR100bn package announced in France. This is the same pattern we are seeing in most places, with governments and central banks increasing support, not limiting support. Where the main three banks in France took sizable credit costs during 1H20, with this new package there is greater likelihood of easing credit costs. We wonder if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/societe-generale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21478:1" rel="noopener">Societe Generale Sa (GLE FP)</a> has the most to gain, considering that it lost the most during 1H20?

There is another EUR100bn package announced in France. This is the same pattern we are seeing in most places, with governments and central banks increasing support, not limiting support. Where the main three banks in France took sizable credit costs during 1H20, with this new package there is greater likelihood of easing credit costs. We wonder if Societe Generale Sa (GLE FP) has the most to gain, considering that it lost the most during 1H20?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We believe the S&amp;P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels -- levels we believe will hold. Tech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau... see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.

We believe the S&amp;P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels -- levels we believe will hold. Tech remains our favorite Sector globally. Additional attractive cyclical areas in which to add exposure at current levels include Financials in Europe, autos and auto parts stocks, and casinos and gaming in Macau... see report for a technical appraisal of all major markets and a collection of actionable stocks.

Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names.

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names. 

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have selected the 6 largest banks by total assets, as defined by the S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Report, 2018.We find that overall, holdings in these banks are on the decline, and in some cases, investor flight has been acute.  Only 2 of the 18 banks are held overweight by global investors, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:279:1">Citigroup Inc (C US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/525" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:525:1">Bnp Paribas (BNP FP)</a> seeing the biggest exodus through 2018.

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have selected the 6 largest banks by total assets, as defined by the S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence Report, 2018.We find that overall, holdings in these banks are on the decline, and in some cases, investor flight has been acute.  Only 2 of the 18 banks are held overweight by global investors, with Citigroup Inc (C US) and Bnp Paribas (BNP FP) seeing the biggest exodus through 2018.

Big Banks - A Crisis of Investor Confidence

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: <ul><li>Overweight Japan. </li><li>Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. </li><li>Actionable Sector/Group themes:<ol><li>Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. </li><li>Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. </li><li>Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.</li></ol></li></ul>

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync.  We see the bullish advance in equities continuing well into 2018, a continuation of a long-term trend. However, the Sectors that propel this trend may be different.In our December International Strategy, we explore these and the following themes in further detail: Overweight Japan. Cyclicals continue to lead, defensive continues to lag. Actionable Sector/Group themes:Global banks are breaking out/bullishly inflecting. Energy is bottoming – still a non-consensus view. Pullback opportunity in metals &amp; mining.

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

France

Credit Agricole S.A. is the lead bank of the Credit Agricole Group.  The Company acts as the central bank of the Group, coordinates its sales and marketing strategy and ensures the liquidity & solvency of each of the Caisses Regionales. Credit Agricole S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs and manages specialized financial products that are distributed primarily by the Caisses Regionales.

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Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)

France Banks – Reboot Package

There is another EUR100bn package announced in France. This is the same pattern we are seeing in most places, with governments and central banks...

Daniel Tabbush

Global Equity Strategy: Major Indexes at Logical Support

We believe the S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, MSCI ACWI ex-U.S., EAFE, and MSCI China are pulling back to support at their prior breakout levels --...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward. ...

Vermilion Research

Big Banks - A Crisis of Investor Confidence

We analyse the holdings of the world's largest banks by the 255 global equity funds in our analysis. For each region (America/EMEA/Asia), we have...

Steven Holden

International Equity Strategy: Bullish Big Picture

Economic data finally confirms what the charts have been saying all year: global growth in the major regions is now in sync. We see the bullish...

Vermilion Research

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