Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-agricole-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21373:1" rel="noopener">Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)</a> -  CASA – has made a cash offer of €10.50 per share for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credito-valtellinese-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21175:1" rel="noopener">Credito Valtellinese Sc (CVAL IM)</a> which values it at €736m, equivalent to 0.4x PBV</li>
<li>The successful acquisition will consolidate Credit Agricole Italia as the seventh largest bank by total assets in the country, with a 5% bank branch market share</li>
<li>The cash acquisition is expected to impact CredAg’s CET1 ratio – which was 12.6% at 3Q20 – by less than 20bps</li>
<li>CredAg Italia’s NPL ratio was 6.6% at 3Q20, with CreVal’s favourably comparable NPL ratio of 6.4%; CredAg Italia does, nonetheless, have better NPL coverage than CreVal</li>
<li>CredAg was rumoured to be a potential bidder for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bpm-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28121:1" rel="noopener">Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM)</a>, but management has opted for the smaller and more digestible CreVal as its Italian acquisition, with limited impact on CASA’S and CredAg Italia’s capital adequacy and credit quality</li>
<li>Banco BPM, with its market capitalisation of €2.8bn, its NPL ratio of 8.6% and NPL coverage of 48% at 3Q20 is a riskier proposition</li>
<li>Shares in Banco BPM were down 3.7% on the 23rd November, with CASA’s shares rising 4%, no doubt on shareholder relief that it did not acquire Banco BPM</li>
<li>We see further near term downside for Banco BPM shares, in view of the CreVal news; yet we are positive on BPM’s medium term fundamentals as management continues to successful de-risk the credit portfolio going forward and build core capital</li>
<li>BPM management should be thinking more in terms of domestic consolidation candidates</li>
<li>Risks to our near term negative view on Banco BPM include the emergence of a bidder or merger partner in the near term</li>
</ul>



Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP) -  CASA – has made a cash offer of €10.50 per share for Credito Valtellinese Sc (CVAL IM) which values it at €736m, equivalent to 0.4x PBV
The successful acquisition will consolidate Credit Agricole Italia as the seventh largest bank by total assets in the country, with a 5% bank branch market share
The cash acquisition is expected to impact CredAg’s CET1 ratio – which was 12.6% at 3Q20 – by less than 20bps
CredAg Italia’s NPL ratio was 6.6% at 3Q20, with CreVal’s favourably comparable NPL ratio of 6.4%; CredAg Italia does, nonetheless, have better NPL coverage than CreVal
CredAg was rumoured to be a potential bidder for Banco BPM SpA (BAMI IM), but management has opted for the smaller and more digestible CreVal as its Italian acquisition, with limited impact on CASA’S and CredAg Italia’s capital adequacy and credit quality
Banco BPM, with its market capitalisation of €2.8bn, its NPL ratio of 8.6% and NPL coverage of 48% at 3Q20 is a riskier proposition
Shares in Banco BPM were down 3.7% on the 23rd November, with CASA’s shares rising 4%, no doubt on shareholder relief that it did not acquire Banco BPM
We see further near term downside for Banco BPM shares, in view of the CreVal news; yet we are positive on BPM’s medium term fundamentals as management continues to successful de-risk the credit portfolio going forward and build core capital
BPM management should be thinking more in terms of domestic consolidation candidates
Risks to our near term negative view on Banco BPM include the emergence of a bidder or merger partner in the near term


Credit Agricole SA Opts for CreVal M&A, Banco BPM (BAMI IM) Side-Lined

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There is another EUR100bn package announced in France. This is the same pattern we are seeing in most places, with governments and central banks increasing support, not limiting support. Where the main three banks in France took sizable credit costs during 1H20, with this new package there is greater likelihood of easing credit costs. We wonder if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/societe-generale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21478:1" rel="noopener">Societe Generale Sa (GLE FP)</a> has the most to gain, considering that it lost the most during 1H20?

There is another EUR100bn package announced in France. This is the same pattern we are seeing in most places, with governments and central banks increasing support, not limiting support. Where the main three banks in France took sizable credit costs during 1H20, with this new package there is greater likelihood of easing credit costs. We wonder if Societe Generale Sa (GLE FP) has the most to gain, considering that it lost the most during 1H20?

Equity Bottom-Up

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Bottom-Up

The theme of lowering credit costs is only just beginning. We see this in spades for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aust-and-nz-banking-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia And New Zealand Banking Group ("ANZ") (ANZ AU)</a>. ANZ’s newly released figures for its June quarter. Strong macro data continues in many countries, with new US private sector output showing a particularly sharp rise for August. Even with ANZ’s mammoth decline in credit costs during the June quarter, its provision expenses in the first nine months of the fiscal year are around three times for all of last year, and also the year before.  Charges can still remain low during fiscal 4Q20, while being well-cushioned compared with the past.

The theme of lowering credit costs is only just beginning. We see this in spades for Australia And New Zealand Banking Group ("ANZ") (ANZ AU). ANZ’s newly released figures for its June quarter. Strong macro data continues in many countries, with new US private sector output showing a particularly sharp rise for August. Even with ANZ’s mammoth decline in credit costs during the June quarter, its provision expenses in the first nine months of the fiscal year are around three times for all of last year, and also the year before.  Charges can still remain low during fiscal 4Q20, while being well-cushioned compared with the past. 

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Insolvency Filing: Wirecard’s (WDR.GY) ongoing last minute negotiations with lenders (including the purported debt for equity swap and asset sales) fell apart, as the management board filed a surprise application for the opening of insolvency proceedings with the district court of Munich;*Risk Exposures Identified: The financial media has widely reported that the EUR 1.75 bn revolver has been almost fully drawn upon at approximately EUR 1.6 bn; and  *Sad Chapter Draws To A Close: Another sad chapter in European banking has now come to an abrupt close. Regulatory reform remains a political hot potato but there is zero evidence of resolve given the conflicted rating agencies, auditing business models, feckless regulators et al.

*Insolvency Filing: Wirecard’s (WDR.GY) ongoing last minute negotiations with lenders (including the purported debt for equity swap and asset sales) fell apart, as the management board filed a surprise application for the opening of insolvency proceedings with the district court of Munich;*Risk Exposures Identified: The financial media has widely reported that the EUR 1.75 bn revolver has been almost fully drawn upon at approximately EUR 1.6 bn; and  *Sad Chapter Draws To A Close: Another sad chapter in European banking has now come to an abrupt close. Regulatory reform remains a political hot potato but there is zero evidence of resolve given the conflicted rating agencies, auditing business models, feckless regulators et al.  

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst &amp; Young were unable to confirm the existence of EUR 1.9 bn (USD 2.1 bn) in cash (representing about 25% of consolidated cash held on balance  sheet) held in trust accounts purportedly held in two Asian banks since 2019. There have also been media reports which suggested that Wirecard's available cash is only EUR 220 mn;* Starting To Come Clean:Wirecard indicated that:There is evidence of "spurious balance confirmations" to "deceive the auditor"; up to EUR 2 bn in drawn lending lines which could be terminated if Wirecard’s audited results (already delayed 4 times) aren’t published by June 19th; and outgoing COO Marsalek has been suspended while incoming CEO Freis will start immediately; and* Risk Is Seemingly Outstanding to Everyone: The alleged Wirecard fraud has a negative readacross to the following: Softbank (9984.JP); Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX); Commerzbank (CBK.GY); Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY); ABN Amro (ABN.NA); ING Groep (INGA.NA); LBBW (private); Barclays (BARC.LN); Credit Agricole (ACA.FP); DZ Bank (private); Lloyds (LLOY.LN); Bank of China (3988.HK); Citibank (C.US); MUFG (8306.JP); Raiffeisen (RBI.AV); Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK); BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) and the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PM).

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst &amp; Young were unable to confirm the existence of EUR 1.9 bn (USD 2.1 bn) in cash (representing about 25% of consolidated cash held on balance  sheet) held in trust accounts purportedly held in two Asian banks since 2019. There have also been media reports which suggested that Wirecard's available cash is only EUR 220 mn;* Starting To Come Clean:Wirecard indicated that:There is evidence of "spurious balance confirmations" to "deceive the auditor"; up to EUR 2 bn in drawn lending lines which could be terminated if Wirecard’s audited results (already delayed 4 times) aren’t published by June 19th; and outgoing COO Marsalek has been suspended while incoming CEO Freis will start immediately; and* Risk Is Seemingly Outstanding to Everyone: The alleged Wirecard fraud has a negative readacross to the following: Softbank (9984.JP); Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX); Commerzbank (CBK.GY); Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY); ABN Amro (ABN.NA); ING Groep (INGA.NA); LBBW (private); Barclays (BARC.LN); Credit Agricole (ACA.FP); DZ Bank (private); Lloyds (LLOY.LN); Bank of China (3988.HK); Citibank (C.US); MUFG (8306.JP); Raiffeisen (RBI.AV); Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK); BDO Unibank (BDO.PM) and the Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PM).

France

Credit Agricole S.A. is the lead bank of the Credit Agricole Group.  The Company acts as the central bank of the Group, coordinates its sales and marketing strategy and ensures the liquidity & solvency of each of the Caisses Regionales. Credit Agricole S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs and manages specialized financial products that are distributed primarily by the Caisses Regionales.

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Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)

Credit Agricole SA Opts for CreVal M&A, Banco BPM (BAMI IM) Side-Lined

CredAg was rumoured to be a potential bidder for Banco BPM, but management has opted for the smaller CreVal as its Italian consolidation choice; we...

Victor Galliano

France Banks – Reboot Package

There is another EUR100bn package announced in France. This is the same pattern we are seeing in most places, with governments and central banks...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ – Credit Cost Recovery

The theme of lowering credit costs is only just beginning. We see this in spades for Australia And New Zealand Banking Group ("ANZ") (ANZ AU)....

Daniel Tabbush

Wirecard – Yolk’s On Everyone

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Credit Agricole SA Opts for CreVal M&A, Banco BPM (BAMI IM) Side-Lined

CredAg was rumoured to be a potential bidder for Banco BPM, but management has opted for the smaller CreVal as its Italian consolidation choice; we...

Victor Galliano

France Banks – Reboot Package

There is another EUR100bn package announced in France. This is the same pattern we are seeing in most places, with governments and central banks...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ – Credit Cost Recovery

The theme of lowering credit costs is only just beginning. We see this in spades for Australia And New Zealand Banking Group ("ANZ") (ANZ AU)....

Daniel Tabbush

Wirecard – The Cookie Crumbles

*Insolvency Filing: Wirecard’s (WDR.GY) ongoing last minute negotiations with lenders (including the purported debt for equity swap and asset...

Thomas J. Monaco

Wirecard – Yolk’s On Everyone

*Another Potential Fraud: Shares of Wirecard (WDI.GR) fell by as much as 67% after the German payments and card-issuing firm disclosed that Ernst...

Thomas J. Monaco