Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and indeed made strong gains over the last five years. As measured by MSCI world, equities have risen 48% in USD terms, compounding at 8%. MXAPJ has done less well , up only 10% in 5 years for a Cagr of 2%. Index earnings have actually fallen  over that period in Asia in dollar terms by about 15% but the lack of a meaningful risk free rate of return has kept…

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/money-matters-turkey-on-the-brink" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:7953">Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?</a>). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?). Mexico has found itself at the sharp end of rhetoric from the US president-elect but the economy was already in trouble.  Is another Tequila crisis brewing (or distilling)?Mexico's current account deficit has been widening since 2010 and stands at around 3.5% of GDP. External debt has roughly doubled since 2009 and stands at about…

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets.  It is evident that a significant correction in the USD has occurred in the first week of the year.  This may reflect significantly stronger than expected economic indicators in a range of countries other than the USA, suggesting that a cyclical upswing in the global economy is underway since around Q4 last year, helping lift support for global asset prices and investment outside of the USA.  It may reflect a natural cooling in the outlook for the Trump-effect on the USA economy after a surge of optimism late last year.  It may reflect a spillover from a rebound in Chinese yuan engineered by a squeeze in offshore CNH liquidity.  CNH volatility around the turn of the year is starting to look like a regular occurrence, after similar developments a year earlier.

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

France

Credit Agricole S.A. is the lead bank of the Credit Agricole Group.  The Company acts as the central bank of the Group, coordinates its sales and marketing strategy and ensures the liquidity & solvency of each of the Caisses Regionales. Credit Agricole S.A., through its subsidiaries, designs and manages specialized financial products that are distributed primarily by the Caisses Regionales.

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Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)

Money Matters: US Inflation & The Fed

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: I Mera Tis Marmotas

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Is the Fed Behind the Curve?

While earnings integers on a number of equity market indices have been falling for a while, equities have held up extremely well globally and...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Could Tequila Mixed with Moutai Be Explosive.

Turkey is not the only emerging market in the early stages of what could be a classic emerging market financial crisis (see: Money Matters: Turkey...

Stewart Paterson

Broadening Evidence of Global Economic Recovery

In our first note for 2017 we are not ready to draw any significant conclusions for global currency markets. It is evident that a significant...

Greg Gibbs

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