Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp - a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.</li><li>Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.</li><li>Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.</li></ul>

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp - a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

<ul><li>US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.</li><li>This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.</li><li>Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.</li></ul>

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. </li><li>The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the incredible resilience of the Canadian economy to the rapid rise in interest rates.</li><li>Low and accommodative real interest rates, record low unemployment, combined with increased net wealth through rising home equity and excess savings and high oil prices drove a substantial increase in Canadians’ desired level of consumption.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the incredible resilience of the Canadian economy to the rapid rise in interest rates.Low and accommodative real interest rates, record low unemployment, combined with increased net wealth through rising home equity and excess savings and high oil prices drove a substantial increase in Canadians’ desired level of consumption.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pent-Up Demand, Resilient Economy, and Rising Interest Rates (August 2, 2023)

<ul><li>The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.</li><li>But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.</li><li>This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.</li></ul>

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

<ul><li>Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.</li><li>Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.</li><li>It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.</li></ul>

Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp

The Commodity Report

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.

The Commodity Report

Pent-Up Demand, Resilient Economy, and Rising Interest Rates (August 2, 2023)

Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the...

Scotiabank

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost...

The Commodity Report

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)