Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Brent futures finally broke through the $75 (settlement) barrier last week and did not look back.Crude was under the influence of two “central banks” – the Fed and OPEC+ – and signals from both supported the ongoing bullish narrative.Jay Powell managed to reassure worried investors that the Fed won’t tighten monetary policy too soon. OPEC+ was less forthcoming officially, but effectively telegraphed that it won’t taper too much too soon, putting more wind in the oil bulls’ sails.The US economic rebound is well-entrenched and the main driving factor behind crude’s incessant climb. But a summer demand boom from holiday spending and release of pent-up demand should not be taken as par for the course. Plus, the recovery picture in the rest of the world is still pretty uncertain and mixed.How much more upside does crude have? Not to $80 levels, we still think, and explain why.

Brent futures finally broke through the $75 (settlement) barrier last week and did not look back.Crude was under the influence of two “central banks” – the Fed and OPEC+ – and signals from both supported the ongoing bullish narrative.Jay Powell managed to reassure worried investors that the Fed won’t tighten monetary policy too soon. OPEC+ was less forthcoming officially, but effectively telegraphed that it won’t taper too much too soon, putting more wind in the oil bulls’ sails.The US economic rebound is well-entrenched and the main driving factor behind crude’s incessant climb. But a summer demand boom from holiday spending and release of pent-up demand should not be taken as par for the course. Plus, the recovery picture in the rest of the world is still pretty uncertain and mixed.How much more upside does crude have? Not to $80 levels, we still think, and explain why.

Weekly Oil Views: A Conservative OPEC+ May Sustain Prices at Current Highs

“Crude may be at an inflection point but $80 is a stretch” we said in our weekly analysis a fortnight ago, and we stand by the view.
In our monthly Bulls &amp; Bears last week, we said we were “mildly bullish” for the near-term as well as for the next three months. We reaffirm that outlook as well. (As a reminder, “mildly bullish” is the first stop on our three-notch scale in the green, which goes up to “moderately” and “strongly” bullish.)
Last week’s wobble in crude was sparked off by the US Fed spooking investors by pencilling in a late-2023 interest rate hike, rather than a change in sentiment on oil fundamentals. But the breather allows the market to contemplate some of the downside risks on both the supply as well as the demand side that it had swept aside in the breathless rally of the past three weeks. 
Once the dust has settled on the Fed’s announcement and the OPEC/non-OPEC energy ministers have charted their course at the next meeting on July 1, crude could resume trekking up a gentle incline.

“Crude may be at an inflection point but $80 is a stretch” we said in our weekly analysis a fortnight ago, and we stand by the view.
In our monthly Bulls &amp; Bears last week, we said we were “mildly bullish” for the near-term as well as for the next three months. We reaffirm that outlook as well. (As a reminder, “mildly bullish” is the first stop on our three-notch scale in the green, which goes up to “moderately” and “strongly” bullish.)
Last week’s wobble in crude was sparked off by the US Fed spooking investors by pencilling in a late-2023 interest rate hike, rather than a change in sentiment on oil fundamentals. But the breather allows the market to contemplate some of the downside risks on both the supply as well as the demand side that it had swept aside in the breathless rally of the past three weeks. 
Once the dust has settled on the Fed’s announcement and the OPEC/non-OPEC energy ministers have charted their course at the next meeting on July 1, crude could resume trekking up a gentle incline.  

Weekly Oil Views: Fed Rate Hike Signal Halts Crude Rally but Demand Optimism Intact

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

In May we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the next unwind and now see oil and then tech as the next domino's to fall.Key support breaks and pivot levels are outlined that will culminate in a late June risk off event that is gaining bear momentum today.USD bottom and rally call is unfolding and gaining bull steam.

In May we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the next unwind and now see oil and then tech as the next domino's to fall.Key support breaks and pivot levels are outlined that will culminate in a late June risk off event that is gaining bear momentum today.USD bottom and rally call is unfolding and gaining bull steam.

Unwinding Crowded Trades - What Is the Next Domino?

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

The picture on the Dow Jones Industrials Average is unfolding in a manner that is still similar to that seen a year after the last major crisis almost a decade ago - and it is troublesome in the short run.One way or another, in whichever strange ways, history has a way of somehow reflecting it’s previous shades. A year after the lows, the stock market today is once again showing signs of short term vulnerability as it did in 2010, a year after the stock market low of March 2009.Perhaps the leading signs are seen on the Dow Transportation Average which has already declined notably since the first half of May. Any lower on either the Transports or the Industrials would amount to significant bearish breaks that would argue for 6%-9% declines from current levels depending on which average we choose to look at.Perhaps it was bad timing for the Fed to be hawkish this month. Or this is a reaction to the Fed’s hawkishness itself. Either way, should this bearish picture on the Dow, as well as the bearish ones in most commodity markets, unfold, expect the Fed to “back track” on some of its recent messages.

The picture on the Dow Jones Industrials Average is unfolding in a manner that is still similar to that seen a year after the last major crisis almost a decade ago - and it is troublesome in the short run.One way or another, in whichever strange ways, history has a way of somehow reflecting it’s previous shades. A year after the lows, the stock market today is once again showing signs of short term vulnerability as it did in 2010, a year after the stock market low of March 2009.Perhaps the leading signs are seen on the Dow Transportation Average which has already declined notably since the first half of May. Any lower on either the Transports or the Industrials would amount to significant bearish breaks that would argue for 6%-9% declines from current levels depending on which average we choose to look at.Perhaps it was bad timing for the Fed to be hawkish this month. Or this is a reaction to the Fed’s hawkishness itself. Either way, should this bearish picture on the Dow, as well as the bearish ones in most commodity markets, unfold, expect the Fed to “back track” on some of its recent messages.

Given the turns already seen in bonds and industrial metals, as well as major Equity indices failing to convincingly make new highs, the Oil chart seems to now be the one that could be 'out of tune' with the rest.Developments this week give early warning signs that we might be posting an interim high. The week's closing price will be key as well as the price action over the next few sessions.

Given the turns already seen in bonds and industrial metals, as well as major Equity indices failing to convincingly make new highs, the Oil chart seems to now be the one that could be 'out of tune' with the rest.Developments this week give early warning signs that we might be posting an interim high. The week's closing price will be key as well as the price action over the next few sessions.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Weekly Oil Views: A Conservative OPEC+ May Sustain Prices at Current Highs

Crude is on a boil. It may find support form OPEC+'s pivot to an extra-cautious easing of cuts under a hawkish Saudi leadership. But we don't see...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Fed Rate Hike Signal Halts Crude Rally but Demand Optimism Intact

Last week's Fed-induced wobble in crude is likely temporary. Looking beyond it, we see crude settling into a gentle upward incline over summer and...

Vandana Hari

Unwinding Crowded Trades - What Is the Next Domino?

In May, we outlined a call to short metals for a big unwind in crowded positioning. Our weaker yield stance then called for crowded banks to be the...

Thomas Schroeder

US Equities: Dow Troubles

The Dow is in trouble whether looked at independently, with the Dow Transports, or taken from an historical trend perspective. Watch these levels...

Shyam Devani

Crude Oil: The Next Market to Watch

Developments this week give early warning signs that we might be posting an interim high. The week's closing price will be key as well as the price...

Shyam Devani

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