Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

The price or yield action on US 10 year Treasury is now beginning to reveal a loss of momentum and indicate at least a consolidation if not lower yields in the short term.A move below 1.58% would be particularly telling.What this, and the developing price action on Oil, tells us about equities is up for interpretation – though from our stand point the bias is to remain cautious on equities as we settle into the new month and quarter.

The price or yield action on US 10 year Treasury is now beginning to reveal a loss of momentum and indicate at least a consolidation if not lower yields in the short term.A move below 1.58% would be particularly telling.What this, and the developing price action on Oil, tells us about equities is up for interpretation – though from our stand point the bias is to remain cautious on equities as we settle into the new month and quarter.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Last week we noted some deterioration in market dynamics, all while reiterating our overall constructive outlook looking weeks and months ahead. The fact is, “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist, and a weight of the evidence approach is necessary. To that end, the positives continue to outweigh the negatives and our outlook remains constructive.

Last week we noted some deterioration in market dynamics, all while reiterating our overall constructive outlook looking weeks and months ahead. The fact is, “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist, and a weight of the evidence approach is necessary. To that end, the positives continue to outweigh the negatives and our outlook remains constructive.

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Energy ministers of the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance and Saudi Arabia once again surprised the market with their decision on April 1 to put more oil back into the market over May-July.Given the latest bout of oil demand worries on account of a third wave of Covid in Europe and daily cases measured on a global level on an upward trek once again, OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia had been widely expected to extend their collective and additional unilateral production cuts respectively at least through May.The latest deal also flew in the face of OPEC's own downgrade earlier in the week of global oil demand recovery through the second quarter. The decision had compromise written all over it --  it may have been the only way to get a consensus and maintain cohesion in the 23-member group that was persuaded by Saudi Arabia to keep a lid on output from February through April.Counter-intuitively, crude futures closed 3-4% higher on Thursday, following the OPEC+ decision. Taking the latest OPEC+ moves into account and weighing the other major influences on oil market sentiment, our latest monthly Bulls &amp; Bears report gives you our view of how prices are likely to move over the next several days and the next three months.

Energy ministers of the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance and Saudi Arabia once again surprised the market with their decision on April 1 to put more oil back into the market over May-July.Given the latest bout of oil demand worries on account of a third wave of Covid in Europe and daily cases measured on a global level on an upward trek once again, OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia had been widely expected to extend their collective and additional unilateral production cuts respectively at least through May.The latest deal also flew in the face of OPEC's own downgrade earlier in the week of global oil demand recovery through the second quarter. The decision had compromise written all over it --  it may have been the only way to get a consensus and maintain cohesion in the 23-member group that was persuaded by Saudi Arabia to keep a lid on output from February through April.Counter-intuitively, crude futures closed 3-4% higher on Thursday, following the OPEC+ decision. Taking the latest OPEC+ moves into account and weighing the other major influences on oil market sentiment, our latest monthly Bulls &amp; Bears report gives you our view of how prices are likely to move over the next several days and the next three months.

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

It was a week of tug boats and a tug-of-war.Multiple tug boats strained to refloat the giant container ship Ever Given, which ran aground in the Suez Canal Tuesday morning, and was continuing to block all traffic through the vital waterway at least until Saturday.And a tug-of-war unfolded over crude prices. After weeks of bulls being in charge, renewed oil demand worries amid a resurgent Covid in Europe and some other parts of the world has woken up the bears. Could a prolonged Suez blockage give fresh ammo to the bulls? We don't think so.That means the ball is  back in OPEC+’s court. When energy ministers of the 23-member alliance meet on April 1, it is hard to imagine them willing to risk putting more oil into the market in May.

It was a week of tug boats and a tug-of-war.Multiple tug boats strained to refloat the giant container ship Ever Given, which ran aground in the Suez Canal Tuesday morning, and was continuing to block all traffic through the vital waterway at least until Saturday.And a tug-of-war unfolded over crude prices. After weeks of bulls being in charge, renewed oil demand worries amid a resurgent Covid in Europe and some other parts of the world has woken up the bears. Could a prolonged Suez blockage give fresh ammo to the bulls? We don't think so.That means the ball is  back in OPEC+’s court. When energy ministers of the 23-member alliance meet on April 1, it is hard to imagine them willing to risk putting more oil into the market in May.

Weekly Oil Views: A Skittish Market Subdues Bulls, Puts Ball in OPEC+'s Court

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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US 10 Year Yield – What to Watch

A more cautionary short term picture is beginning to unfold indicating lower US 10 year yield which raises questions for other markets including US...

Shyam Devani

Breakaway Gaps In Place

Market dynamics are not perfect, but the fact is that “perfectly bullish” conditions rarely exist. The positives continue to outweigh the negatives...

Vermilion Research

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

OPEC+ on Apr 1 decided to boost oil supply over May-Jul. Given a resurgent Covid, we see crude prices under pressure over the next several weeks...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: A Skittish Market Subdues Bulls, Puts Ball in OPEC+'s Court

A persistent resurgence of Covid in Europe, the US and some other parts of the world has stoked oil demand fears and pushed crude bulls aside....

Vandana Hari

FX Summary Discussion at End of Q1

A summary radio discussion on foreign exchange and other financial markets as we approach Q2. Topics include the US, Europe, China, Oil, Bonds, and...

Shyam Devani

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