Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Benchmark Brent crude prices have jumped 21% year-to-date and are a whopping 67% higher since the start of November. A 10-session uninterrupted spell of gains from Jan 29 to Feb 10, the longest in two years, prompted growing skepticism and calls for a correction. Brent did correct --  by 0.5% and for all of one day. On Friday, it went on to notch a fresh 1-year high, settling above the $62/barrel mark.Even as the oil bulls' bandwagon grows bigger, there are a few skeptics in the market and some sitting on the fence. The doubters point to depressed Q1 oil demand amid continuing Covid restrictions across Europe, a slow and patchy progress of vaccinations, and the rising likelihood of OPEC+ deciding at the ministerial meeting in early March to open the spigots, among other factors.Could they be missing the single most important development in recent weeks that signals that the Covid tide may have finally turned in favour of the oil market? How and why have our views switched to far more constructive than just a fortnight ago? Read on to find out.

Benchmark Brent crude prices have jumped 21% year-to-date and are a whopping 67% higher since the start of November. A 10-session uninterrupted spell of gains from Jan 29 to Feb 10, the longest in two years, prompted growing skepticism and calls for a correction. Brent did correct --  by 0.5% and for all of one day. On Friday, it went on to notch a fresh 1-year high, settling above the $62/barrel mark.Even as the oil bulls' bandwagon grows bigger, there are a few skeptics in the market and some sitting on the fence. The doubters point to depressed Q1 oil demand amid continuing Covid restrictions across Europe, a slow and patchy progress of vaccinations, and the rising likelihood of OPEC+ deciding at the ministerial meeting in early March to open the spigots, among other factors.Could they be missing the single most important development in recent weeks that signals that the Covid tide may have finally turned in favour of the oil market? How and why have our views switched to far more constructive than just a fortnight ago? Read on to find out.

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Cross Asset Strategy

'As the Sun Rises' is a weekly publication expected to be released at the start of every week with a view to highlight macro trends and important price action developments across all asset classes. It is designed to be global in nature with particular attention given to developments in Asian markets.

'As the Sun Rises' is a weekly publication expected to be released at the start of every week with a view to highlight macro trends and important price action developments across all asset classes. It is designed to be global in nature with particular attention given to developments in Asian markets.

As the Sun Rises - Bonds, South Korea, Oil, India, USD

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. Within the commodity-producing sectors, there is a substantial value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the reluctance of management to invest in new supply should oil prices rise.The cyclical rebound should translate into higher oil prices over the next 12–24 months. In the past three years, the ratio of energy stock prices to crude oil has been relatively flat. Energy stocks should rise in line with oil prices, which creates considerable profit potential under a bullish oil scenario.

The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. Within the commodity-producing sectors, there is a substantial value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the reluctance of management to invest in new supply should oil prices rise.The cyclical rebound should translate into higher oil prices over the next 12–24 months. In the past three years, the ratio of energy stock prices to crude oil has been relatively flat. Energy stocks should rise in line with oil prices, which creates considerable profit potential under a bullish oil scenario.

Value Opportunities in the New Commodity Supercycle

Crude is up 15% year-to-date. Though in a slow grind upward, prices have notched a spectacular 58% cumulative jump since the beginning of November.Last week brought five straight sessions of price gains, putting Brent within reach of the psychologically important $60/barrel mark.But it was neither the vaccines nor the OPEC/non-OPEC supply cutbacks that fuelled the latest surge (though those factors remained supportive). The main factor behind the latest swell in optimism was a rather unexpected finding in global Covid stats, which have more often than not marked grim milestones than promising ones since the start of the pandemic.How sustainable is the latest rally and what next for crude? We weigh in.

Crude is up 15% year-to-date. Though in a slow grind upward, prices have notched a spectacular 58% cumulative jump since the beginning of November.Last week brought five straight sessions of price gains, putting Brent within reach of the psychologically important $60/barrel mark.But it was neither the vaccines nor the OPEC/non-OPEC supply cutbacks that fuelled the latest surge (though those factors remained supportive). The main factor behind the latest swell in optimism was a rather unexpected finding in global Covid stats, which have more often than not marked grim milestones than promising ones since the start of the pandemic.How sustainable is the latest rally and what next for crude? We weigh in.

Weekly Oil Views: Prices in a Higher Orbit on Covid's Unexpected Retreat

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>Despite ongoing headlines on slow vaccine rollouts and potential vaccine shortages in the first 3 weeks of January, overall sentiment on vaccine rollouts appears to be improving on the margin and negative coverage of the slow rollout has stabilized; this appears to be loosely correlated with price moves in WTI</li>
<li>Coverage of the vaccine hesitancy issue has been slowing since December; recent survey data suggests that while some geographic disparities remain, the hesitancy rate is dropping across the board</li>
<li>While seemingly spurious, the multi-STDEV January spike in coverage of the slow vaccine rollout appeared to coincide with the peak in EUR/USD; this is also reflected in action in our Eurozone macro sentiment indicator</li>
<li>Data remains volatile, but the past week's early signs of decline in negative vaccine rollout coverage is encouraging; further confirmation would go a long way in boosting some of the reflation trades paused in January (for example, Global Materials down -5% since January 7, same as the value-over-growth trade) with positive implications for the expected magnitude and timing of the mobility recovery</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macro, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Despite ongoing headlines on slow vaccine rollouts and potential vaccine shortages in the first 3 weeks of January, overall sentiment on vaccine rollouts appears to be improving on the margin and negative coverage of the slow rollout has stabilized; this appears to be loosely correlated with price moves in WTI
Coverage of the vaccine hesitancy issue has been slowing since December; recent survey data suggests that while some geographic disparities remain, the hesitancy rate is dropping across the board
While seemingly spurious, the multi-STDEV January spike in coverage of the slow vaccine rollout appeared to coincide with the peak in EUR/USD; this is also reflected in action in our Eurozone macro sentiment indicator
Data remains volatile, but the past week's early signs of decline in negative vaccine rollout coverage is encouraging; further confirmation would go a long way in boosting some of the reflation trades paused in January (for example, Global Materials down -5% since January 7, same as the value-over-growth trade) with positive implications for the expected magnitude and timing of the mobility recovery
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macro, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Vaccine Sentiment Update - Early Signs of Improvement

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Bulls & Bears: Short- And Medium-Term View on Oil Prices

Has the oil market gotten ahead of itself? Is Brent crude above $62, up 21% year-to-date, overcooked! We don't think so! Why and what does that...

Vandana Hari

As the Sun Rises - Bonds, South Korea, Oil, India, USD

Cross market & price action developments to note at the start of the week across global markets with particular focus on Asia - Currencies, Bonds,...

Shyam Devani

Value Opportunities in the New Commodity Supercycle

The global economy is poised for a bull market in commodity prices. There is a value opportunity for investors in energy stocks owing to the likely...

Cam Hui

Weekly Oil Views: Prices in a Higher Orbit on Covid's Unexpected Retreat

Crude has jumped 15% year-to-date. But last week's rally, which put Brent within reach of $60, was down to an entirely new milestone. What was it...

Vandana Hari

TMI Snapshot: Vaccine Sentiment Update - Early Signs of Improvement

After a surge in concerns related to the slow vaccine rollout in January, our text mining sees improvement on the margin in the past week, which...

Elan Gore

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