Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

The first week of January saw crude in the throes of a bull run on the back of a surprise Saudi cut. We stuck our neck out to say the market had a blinkered view and would need to reconcile the crimp in demand from a raging pandemic and associated restrictions.
We were on the right track. Brent surged to fresh 11-month highs above $56 last Tuesday but the rally stalled in the second half of the week (shrugging off Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package) and prices slid by just over 2% on Friday.
Remember the theme of our year-end special report? We called for a “slow-motion bull run” in 2021. The new year is only a fortnight old, but the tug-of-war between vaccine optimism and Covid realism is playing out just as we expected.
Be prepared for a two steps forward-one step back rally in crude, at least through this quarter, potentially through H1 2021.

The first week of January saw crude in the throes of a bull run on the back of a surprise Saudi cut. We stuck our neck out to say the market had a blinkered view and would need to reconcile the crimp in demand from a raging pandemic and associated restrictions.
We were on the right track. Brent surged to fresh 11-month highs above $56 last Tuesday but the rally stalled in the second half of the week (shrugging off Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package) and prices slid by just over 2% on Friday.
Remember the theme of our year-end special report? We called for a “slow-motion bull run” in 2021. The new year is only a fortnight old, but the tug-of-war between vaccine optimism and Covid realism is playing out just as we expected.
Be prepared for a two steps forward-one step back rally in crude, at least through this quarter, potentially through H1 2021.

Weekly Oil Views: Pandemic Punctuates Crude Rally, Expect More of the Same

Saudi Arabia shocked the oil market and even took its OPEC/non-OPEC peers by surprise on January 5 by declaring a 1 million b/d unilateral production cut in February and March.
It followed a stalemate at an OPEC+ energy ministers' meeting the previous day, with the Kingdom pushing for OPEC+ to roll over January production targets to February in view of fresh concerns over a resurgent Covid curbing oil demand, and Russia insisting on a 500,000 b/d boost.
Crude prices jumped 8% on a weekly basis to highs not seen since February 2020.
But was it a masterstroke by Saudi Arabia or did it score an own goal? We give you our take.
A festering Covid crisis in Europe and the US and growing risks to demand posed by new outbreaks in China and parts of Asia have appears to have slipped into the oil market’s blind spot. A reconciliation may soon be called for.

Saudi Arabia shocked the oil market and even took its OPEC/non-OPEC peers by surprise on January 5 by declaring a 1 million b/d unilateral production cut in February and March.
It followed a stalemate at an OPEC+ energy ministers' meeting the previous day, with the Kingdom pushing for OPEC+ to roll over January production targets to February in view of fresh concerns over a resurgent Covid curbing oil demand, and Russia insisting on a 500,000 b/d boost.
Crude prices jumped 8% on a weekly basis to highs not seen since February 2020.
But was it a masterstroke by Saudi Arabia or did it score an own goal? We give you our take.
A festering Covid crisis in Europe and the US and growing risks to demand posed by new outbreaks in China and parts of Asia have appears to have slipped into the oil market’s blind spot. A reconciliation may soon be called for. 

Weekly Oil Views: Market Cheers Saudi Cut but Has a Blinkered View

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) also display a bullish reversal topside a 12.5-year downtrend. This type of evidence helps affirm our bullish outlook and suggests higher prices are ahead. Continue to add exposure on pullbacks.

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index) also display a bullish reversal topside a 12.5-year downtrend. This type of evidence helps affirm our bullish outlook and suggests higher prices are ahead. Continue to add exposure on pullbacks.

Long-Term Bullish Inflections For Hang Seng, DAX, MSCI EM, & Bloomberg Commodity Index

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>Last month our text-mined indicators highlighted a notable raw materials restocking underway for the second time since August; this theme did not slow down throughout December, ending the month at a new high</li>
<li>Though with very little discernible impact on commodities, our indicators saw Chinese macro sentiment peak earlier in December at +3x STDEV with some momentum lost on the margin since, driven by below-consensus Chinese retail sales and home price readings, continuing in recent days on lower-than-expected NBS and Caixin PMI releases</li>
<li>In the context of USD weakness, a wildly inflationary mindset in markets and a general restocking, commodity optimism has not wavered </li>
<li>Our commodity sentiment indicators saw broader momentum in December, with already-surging copper momentum joined by crude, aluminum, uranium and nickel; iron ore and steel may be coming off the boil, but markets remain extraordinarily tight</li>
<li>Gold sentiment appears to have fully stabilized after the post-election risk-on shock</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Last month our text-mined indicators highlighted a notable raw materials restocking underway for the second time since August; this theme did not slow down throughout December, ending the month at a new high
Though with very little discernible impact on commodities, our indicators saw Chinese macro sentiment peak earlier in December at +3x STDEV with some momentum lost on the margin since, driven by below-consensus Chinese retail sales and home price readings, continuing in recent days on lower-than-expected NBS and Caixin PMI releases
In the context of USD weakness, a wildly inflationary mindset in markets and a general restocking, commodity optimism has not wavered 
Our commodity sentiment indicators saw broader momentum in December, with already-surging copper momentum joined by crude, aluminum, uranium and nickel; iron ore and steel may be coming off the boil, but markets remain extraordinarily tight
Gold sentiment appears to have fully stabilized after the post-election risk-on shock
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: Commodity Sentiment Review - Restocking On, But China Macro Momentum May Have Peaked

The outlook for the global economy as well as the oil markets in 2021 has brightened with the rollout of vaccines, but zoom in from that big picture and there is plenty to worry, including uncertainties lurking around every corner.While the fight against the pandemic will clearly be the dominating influence on oil demand in 2021, the supply side may lose some of this year’s certainty as the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance may be fighting an uphill battle to maintain cohesion.Geopolitical factors including simmering tensions in the Middle East, US sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan oil and the US-China trade war took a back seat this year. These may be reactivated in 2021.We take a look at the major factors likely to shape the global oil markets in the new year.

The outlook for the global economy as well as the oil markets in 2021 has brightened with the rollout of vaccines, but zoom in from that big picture and there is plenty to worry, including uncertainties lurking around every corner.While the fight against the pandemic will clearly be the dominating influence on oil demand in 2021, the supply side may lose some of this year’s certainty as the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance may be fighting an uphill battle to maintain cohesion.Geopolitical factors including simmering tensions in the Middle East, US sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan oil and the US-China trade war took a back seat this year. These may be reactivated in 2021.We take a look at the major factors likely to shape the global oil markets in the new year.

CRUDE IN 2021: Poised for a Slow-Motion Bull Run

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Weekly Oil Views: Pandemic Punctuates Crude Rally, Expect More of the Same

Crude emerged from under the spell of the surprise Saudi output cut, took in the grim Covid situation, and prices pulled back last week. Expect a...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Market Cheers Saudi Cut but Has a Blinkered View

Crude spiked 8% in the first week of 2021 following a surprise unilateral Saudi production cut of 1 million b/d over Feb-Mar. Will it stick?

Vandana Hari

Long-Term Bullish Inflections For Hang Seng, DAX, MSCI EM, & Bloomberg Commodity Index

The number of major country indexes showing major bullish inflections continues to grow. Broad commodities also breaking a 12.5-year downtrend....

Vermilion Research

TMI Indicators: Commodity Sentiment Review - Restocking On, But China Macro Momentum May Have Peaked

TMI's commodity sentiment indicators saw improved breadth in December as restocking continues to drive reflation; but China macro momentum may have...

Elan Gore

CRUDE IN 2021: Poised for a Slow-Motion Bull Run

What does 2021 hold for oil as the commodity emerges from this year's Covid shock? We examine the main factors in place to influence the course of...

Vandana Hari

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