Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> reached extreme levels amid the Iran war; our models flagged a &gt;89% reversal probability at the end of last week. Short-term tactical view: OVERBOUGHT.
</li>
<li>The long-term price may be higher than now, so any pullback may be a good occasion to BUY.</li>
<li>This insight briefly discuss possible entry points, a couple of scenarios.</li>
</ul>



Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) reached extreme levels amid the Iran war; our models flagged a &gt;89% reversal probability at the end of last week. Short-term tactical view: OVERBOUGHT.

The long-term price may be higher than now, so any pullback may be a good occasion to BUY.
This insight briefly discuss possible entry points, a couple of scenarios.


Crude Oil Tactical View After US Strikes on Iran

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Commodities

<ul><li>Despite the pressure on the regime and escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, oil prices have remained relatively contained, up only $10 since last Tuesday</li><li>The risks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed are considered low due to US presence in the region and historical trends of short-lived oil shocks from conflicts</li><li>Regime changes in oil-producing countries have historically led to significant spikes in oil prices, with supply disruptions lasting up to six months and causing prices to stabilize at levels 30% or higher than pre-conflict levels</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Despite the pressure on the regime and escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, oil prices have remained relatively contained, up only $10 since last TuesdayThe risks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed are considered low due to US presence in the region and historical trends of short-lived oil shocks from conflictsRegime changes in oil-producing countries have historically led to significant spikes in oil prices, with supply disruptions lasting up to six months and causing prices to stabilize at levels 30% or higher than pre-conflict levelsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: The unintended consequences of destabilizing Iran

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.3m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose.</li>
<li>The EIA reported a 95 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 96 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.1% above the five-year average but 7.7% below year-ago levels.</li>
<li>Bernstein downgrades Shell and upgrades Aramco. Meanwhile, Chevron makes a pivot into U.S. lithium production.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 13/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.3m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose.
The EIA reported a 95 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 96 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 6.1% above the five-year average but 7.7% below year-ago levels.
Bernstein downgrades Shell and upgrades Aramco. Meanwhile, Chevron makes a pivot into U.S. lithium production.


[ETP 2025/25] WTI Wavers on Israel-Iran Tensions, While Henry Hub Rebounds on Demand Revival

<ul>
<li>WTI futures surged by 13% for the week ending 13/Jun on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.</li>
<li>The U.S. rig count fell by four to 555. The oil rig count fell by three to 439, while gas rigs inched down by one to 113.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR grew to 0.89 on 13/Jun compared to 0.83 on 06/Jun. Call OI rose by 5.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 14.5%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures surged by 13% for the week ending 13/Jun on the back of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. rig count fell by four to 555. The oil rig count fell by three to 439, while gas rigs inched down by one to 113.
WTI OI PCR grew to 0.89 on 13/Jun compared to 0.83 on 06/Jun. Call OI rose by 5.9% WoW, while put OI grew by 14.5%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

<ul>
<li>A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.</li>
<li>We analyze: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> </li>
<li>Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model's tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate). </li>
</ul>


A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index 
Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model's tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate). 


Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Crude Oil Tactical View After US Strikes on Iran

Crude Oil reached extreme price levels, our model flagged a >89% WEEKLY reversal probability. OVERBOUGHT. Long-term prices should be higher,...

Nico Rosti

Global Commodities: The unintended consequences of destabilizing Iran

Despite the pressure on the regime and escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, oil prices have remained relatively contained, up only $10...

At Any Rate

[ETP 2025/25] WTI Wavers on Israel-Iran Tensions, While Henry Hub Rebounds on Demand Revival

US crude inventories drop significantly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles increase. Natural gas storage levels above average but below last year...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

WTI futures rose 13% on geopolitical tensions and trade easing, US rig count down, WTI OI PCR up to 0.89 with call OI rising 5.9% and put OI...

Mint Finance

Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...

Nico Rosti

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52-week Range

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Crude Oil Tactical View After US Strikes on Iran

​Crude Oil reached extreme price levels, our model flagged a >89% WEEKLY reversal probability. OVERBOUGHT. Long-term prices should be higher,...

Nico Rosti

Global Commodities: The unintended consequences of destabilizing Iran

Despite the pressure on the regime and escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran, oil prices have remained relatively contained, up only $10...

At Any Rate

[ETP 2025/25] WTI Wavers on Israel-Iran Tensions, While Henry Hub Rebounds on Demand Revival

​US crude inventories drop significantly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles increase. Natural gas storage levels above average but below last year...

Mint Finance

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/24] WTI Surged on Mideast Tensions and U.S.-China Trade Optimism

​WTI futures rose 13% on geopolitical tensions and trade easing, US rig count down, WTI OI PCR up to 0.89 with call OI rising 5.9% and put OI...

Mint Finance

Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran

​Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...

Nico Rosti

Crude Oil reached extreme price levels, our model flagged a >89% WEEKLY reversal probability. OVERBOUGHT. Long-term prices should be higher,...

US crude inventories drop significantly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles increase. Natural gas storage levels above average but below last year...

WTI futures rose 13% on geopolitical tensions and trade easing, US rig count down, WTI OI PCR up to 0.89 with call OI rising 5.9% and put OI...

Analysis of tactical forecast models for key markets impacted by Israeli attack on Iran. We analyze: Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdsaq100 Index, Nikkei...