Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>With the 60-day negotiating period now history, as we fully anticipated absolutely nothing has been accomplished between the U.S. and Iran.</li>
<li>On the contrary, as we also have suggested in previous reports, there is a reasonably high probability that the stalemate could well continue through at least the end of 2026.  </li>
<li>Despite no indication that traffic through the Strait will pick up significantly, we believe that the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a $75.00-$88.00 per barrel trading range.        </li>
</ul>


With the 60-day negotiating period now history, as we fully anticipated absolutely nothing has been accomplished between the U.S. and Iran.
On the contrary, as we also have suggested in previous reports, there is a reasonably high probability that the stalemate could well continue through at least the end of 2026.  
Despite no indication that traffic through the Strait will pick up significantly, we believe that the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain in a $75.00-$88.00 per barrel trading range.        


Monday Macro Update: Will The Stalemate Turn Into A "Forever War"?

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

<ul><li>Crude futures initially were mixed but ultimately moved higher in a choppy trading session on Friday as the market priced renewed US threats against Iran and lingering pressure from a large build in US inventories and weaker demand forecasts.</li><li>At 2024 London time, Oct26 ICE Brent was up 1.7%   at $88.55/b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was up 1.4% to $82.37/b .</li><li>Brent had fallen to an Asian-session low of $86.20/b before recovering as trading progressed to a high of $88.69/b during the European session.</li></ul>

Crude futures initially were mixed but ultimately moved higher in a choppy trading session on Friday as the market priced renewed US threats against Iran and lingering pressure from a large build in US inventories and weaker demand forecasts.At 2024 London time, Oct26 ICE Brent was up 1.7%   at $88.55/b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was up 1.4% to $82.37/b .Brent had fallen to an Asian-session low of $86.20/b before recovering as trading progressed to a high of $88.69/b during the European session.

Oil futures: Brent rebounds in day as market prices Iran, stockbuilds

<ul><li>Oil futures were drifting lower on Thursday as a sharp increase in US crude inventories and weaker global demand forecasts offset continuing supply concerns linked to restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.</li><li>At 2020 London time Oct26 ICE Brent was down 2.4% at $86.88 / b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI dropped $2.6% to  $81.09/b .</li><li>The declines had narrowed from earlier in the Asian session after Brent and WTI fell by more than 2%.</li></ul>

Oil futures were drifting lower on Thursday as a sharp increase in US crude inventories and weaker global demand forecasts offset continuing supply concerns linked to restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.At 2020 London time Oct26 ICE Brent was down 2.4% at $86.88 / b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI dropped $2.6% to  $81.09/b .The declines had narrowed from earlier in the Asian session after Brent and WTI fell by more than 2%.

Oil futures: Crude eases as US stock build offsets Hormuz risk

<ul>
<li>In the context of yesterday’s discussion, we are increasingly confident that our long-standing estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain intact.         </li>
<li>Once again, our estimated peak has been around $88.00 per barrel with the trough at roughly $68.00 per barrel.                       </li>
<li>In terms of the trough, our Base Case still expects the fourth quarter to <em>average</em> $68.25 per barrel, versus a temporary bottom during any period of volatility.                </li>
</ul>


In the context of yesterday’s discussion, we are increasingly confident that our long-standing estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain intact.         
Once again, our estimated peak has been around $88.00 per barrel with the trough at roughly $68.00 per barrel.                       
In terms of the trough, our Base Case still expects the fourth quarter to average $68.25 per barrel, versus a temporary bottom during any period of volatility.                


Morning Market Notes: Perhaps Famous Last Words, But We Believe CL Prices To Be Rangebound From Here

<ul>
<li>The latest weekly EIA report was extremely bearish for crude oil, but we will reserve final judgment on the overall fundamentals pending another week or two of data.         </li>
<li>If it marks the beginning of a trend, however, almost irrespective of how long the Strait is “closed,” we may not see materially higher prices from here through end-2026.                      </li>
<li>The odds are tending to favor, therefore, that we have been correct in stating that the peak in the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract occurred on February 28.  </li>
</ul>


The latest weekly EIA report was extremely bearish for crude oil, but we will reserve final judgment on the overall fundamentals pending another week or two of data.         
If it marks the beginning of a trend, however, almost irrespective of how long the Strait is “closed,” we may not see materially higher prices from here through end-2026.                      
The odds are tending to favor, therefore, that we have been correct in stating that the peak in the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract occurred on February 28.  


Morning Market Notes: The Latest EIA Crude Oil Data Require a Pause and Reflection

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Monday Macro Update: Will The Stalemate Turn Into A "Forever War"?

60-day negotiation period between U.S. and Iran ends with no progress, stalemate likely to continue through 2026, oil prices expected to remain...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Brent rebounds in day as market prices Iran, stockbuilds

Crude futures initially were mixed but ultimately moved higher in a choppy trading session on Friday as the market priced renewed US threats...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil futures: Crude eases as US stock build offsets Hormuz risk

Oil futures were drifting lower on Thursday as a sharp increase in US crude inventories and weaker global demand forecasts offset supply concerns...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Perhaps Famous Last Words, But We Believe CL Prices To Be Rangebound From Here

Confident in estimated trading range for NYMEX crude oil contract, peak at $88.00/barrel and trough at $68.00/barrel, with Q4 average at $68.25...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: The Latest EIA Crude Oil Data Require a Pause and Reflection

The latest EIA report suggests bearish outlook for crude oil, peak in prices reached on February 28, further data needed to confirm any trend.

William H Brown III

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monday Macro Update: Will The Stalemate Turn Into A "Forever War"?

​60-day negotiation period between U.S. and Iran ends with no progress, stalemate likely to continue through 2026, oil prices expected to remain...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Brent rebounds in day as market prices Iran, stockbuilds

Crude futures initially were mixed but ultimately moved higher in a choppy trading session on Friday as the market priced renewed US threats...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil futures: Crude eases as US stock build offsets Hormuz risk

Oil futures were drifting lower on Thursday as a sharp increase in US crude inventories and weaker global demand forecasts offset supply concerns...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Perhaps Famous Last Words, But We Believe CL Prices To Be Rangebound From Here

​Confident in estimated trading range for NYMEX crude oil contract, peak at $88.00/barrel and trough at $68.00/barrel, with Q4 average at $68.25...

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: The Latest EIA Crude Oil Data Require a Pause and Reflection

​The latest EIA report suggests bearish outlook for crude oil, peak in prices reached on February 28, further data needed to confirm any trend.

William H Brown III

60-day negotiation period between U.S. and Iran ends with no progress, stalemate likely to continue through 2026, oil prices expected to remain...

Confident in estimated trading range for NYMEX crude oil contract, peak at $88.00/barrel and trough at $68.00/barrel, with Q4 average at $68.25...

The latest EIA report suggests bearish outlook for crude oil, peak in prices reached on February 28, further data needed to confirm any trend.