Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

Crude took a sharp dive last week to two-month lows, amid a bout of risk aversion in the financial markets. 
A sharp rebound and subsequent stabilisation of the US dollar from Monday’s two-year lows took away an important support at the start of the week. Then, in a one-two punch, the oil complex was pummelled along with the stock markets amid a sharp switch to a risk-off mode.
There is plenty to buffet global financial markets in the coming weeks, including political manoeuvres ratcheting up ahead of the November 3 US presidential election.
We share our view of what this environment means for oil, which has weak fundamentals as a consistent backdrop.
In a special report, we delve into the strong manufacturing activity pick-up in the world's major economies in August, and its implications for oil.

Crude took a sharp dive last week to two-month lows, amid a bout of risk aversion in the financial markets. 
A sharp rebound and subsequent stabilisation of the US dollar from Monday’s two-year lows took away an important support at the start of the week. Then, in a one-two punch, the oil complex was pummelled along with the stock markets amid a sharp switch to a risk-off mode.
There is plenty to buffet global financial markets in the coming weeks, including political manoeuvres ratcheting up ahead of the November 3 US presidential election.
We share our view of what this environment means for oil, which has weak fundamentals as a consistent backdrop.
In a special report, we delve into the strong manufacturing activity pick-up in the world's major economies in August, and its implications for oil.

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Yanked Down by Risk Aversion

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Our September cyclical commodity sentiment review highlights notable divergence in the commodity space, with potential over-exuberance seen in copper and platinum; early signs of positive change seen in corn via US farmer sentiment; an accelerating slide for crude oil sentiment towards negative territory; and weak showings for uranium and mineral sands.  We discuss recent catalysts picked up via text mining for our core cyclical commodity sentiment indicators below.
For an introduction to TMI's methodology &amp; use cases, please take a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/introducing-tmi-data-science-delivering-alpha-with-custom-nlp-based-leading-indicators" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42826" rel="noopener">Introducing TMI Data Science: Delivering Alpha With Custom NLP-Based Leading Indicators</a>

Our September cyclical commodity sentiment review highlights notable divergence in the commodity space, with potential over-exuberance seen in copper and platinum; early signs of positive change seen in corn via US farmer sentiment; an accelerating slide for crude oil sentiment towards negative territory; and weak showings for uranium and mineral sands.  We discuss recent catalysts picked up via text mining for our core cyclical commodity sentiment indicators below.
For an introduction to TMI's methodology &amp; use cases, please take a look at Introducing TMI Data Science: Delivering Alpha With Custom NLP-Based Leading Indicators

TMI Indicators: Cyclical Commodity Sentiment Review

Through two major storms in the US Gulf of Mexico and a tsunami of a Fed policy shift, coming on top of all the routine tumult of a raging and rolling pandemic and economies struggling to gather momentum, Brent remained firmly anchored around $45 last week, with WTI two dollars below.Laura and Marco, the US Gulf storms, spared the region’s oil production, refining and related infrastructure from major damage. There may be more severe storms to come, as this year is forecasted to see an “above average” Atlantic hurricane season. But the market’s muted reaction to the precautionary shut-ins last week may be par for the course: The current big buffer of spare upstream and downstream capacity across the globe may avert wild price swings. Meanwhile, the Fed’s landmark decision to tolerate periods of higher inflation than its target cemented market expectations of the central bank’s ‘very low for very long’ stance on interest rates. While not immediately obvious, the move has implications for the oil market, both short- and long-term.

Through two major storms in the US Gulf of Mexico and a tsunami of a Fed policy shift, coming on top of all the routine tumult of a raging and rolling pandemic and economies struggling to gather momentum, Brent remained firmly anchored around $45 last week, with WTI two dollars below.Laura and Marco, the US Gulf storms, spared the region’s oil production, refining and related infrastructure from major damage. There may be more severe storms to come, as this year is forecasted to see an “above average” Atlantic hurricane season. But the market’s muted reaction to the precautionary shut-ins last week may be par for the course: The current big buffer of spare upstream and downstream capacity across the globe may avert wild price swings. Meanwhile, the Fed’s landmark decision to tolerate periods of higher inflation than its target cemented market expectations of the central bank’s ‘very low for very long’ stance on interest rates. While not immediately obvious, the move has implications for the oil market, both short- and long-term.

Weekly Oil Views: Brent Clings to $45 as Demand Gets Stuck in the Slow Lane

Crude pulled back sharply from multi-month highs in the second half of last week. 
With the coronavirus becoming entrenched as rolling outbreaks across the world, the oil demand recovery picture has begun to wobble.
So far, a sustained depreciation of the US dollar and a risk appetite fueled by promises of massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages have propped up crude. However, both are prone to increased volatility in the coming weeks, yanking crude up and down. 
A cocktail of the disruption caused by Covid and the strong geopolitical winds starting to blow ahead of the November 3 US presidential election may put markets in a “zombie zone”. 
Desperate to show some achievements from the months of stringent oil sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, the Trump administration is making last-minute moves that the oil market will keep in view, even if they do not have major immediate implications for physical crude balances.

Crude pulled back sharply from multi-month highs in the second half of last week. 
With the coronavirus becoming entrenched as rolling outbreaks across the world, the oil demand recovery picture has begun to wobble.
So far, a sustained depreciation of the US dollar and a risk appetite fueled by promises of massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages have propped up crude. However, both are prone to increased volatility in the coming weeks, yanking crude up and down. 
A cocktail of the disruption caused by Covid and the strong geopolitical winds starting to blow ahead of the November 3 US presidential election may put markets in a “zombie zone”. 
Desperate to show some achievements from the months of stringent oil sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, the Trump administration is making last-minute moves that the oil market will keep in view, even if they do not have major immediate implications for physical crude balances.

Weekly Oil Views: In a Zombie Zone Between Covid and the US Election

Brent and WTI futures hit fresh five-month highs mid-week, and once again, saw some pullback. 
Confidence in global oil demand recovery through the second half of 2020 is starting to shake, as it becomes clear that the coronavirus is likely to maintain its stranglehold on the world. 
The scenario doesn’t bode well for global oil demand recovery. However, there are a couple of factors that have propped crude up against the downward pressure of plentiful supply and plateauing demand.
Hedge funds and other major speculators have remained non-committal on the direction of WTI prices for the past two months, but appear to be betting on a fall in Brent prices.

Brent and WTI futures hit fresh five-month highs mid-week, and once again, saw some pullback. 
Confidence in global oil demand recovery through the second half of 2020 is starting to shake, as it becomes clear that the coronavirus is likely to maintain its stranglehold on the world. 
The scenario doesn’t bode well for global oil demand recovery. However, there are a couple of factors that have propped crude up against the downward pressure of plentiful supply and plateauing demand.
Hedge funds and other major speculators have remained non-committal on the direction of WTI prices for the past two months, but appear to be betting on a fall in Brent prices.  

Weekly Oil Views: Covid's Persistent Grip Likely to Curtail Crude's Ascent

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Weekly Oil Views: Crude Yanked Down by Risk Aversion

Crude took a sharp dive last week, in sympathy with There were two main factors behind the slump: A sharp rebound in the US dollar from...

Vandana Hari

TMI Indicators: Cyclical Commodity Sentiment Review

Our NLP-based cyclical commodity sentiment review seeks to quantify

Elan Gore

Weekly Oil Views: Brent Clings to $45 as Demand Gets Stuck in the Slow Lane

Through two major storms in the US Gulf of Mexico and a tsunami of a Fed policy shift, coming on top of all the routine tumult of a raging and...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: In a Zombie Zone Between Covid and the US Election

Crude pulled back sharply from multi-month highs in the second half of last week. With the coronavirus becoming entrenched as rolling outbreaks...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Covid's Persistent Grip Likely to Curtail Crude's Ascent

Brent and WTI futures hit fresh five-month highs mid-week, and once again, saw some pullback. Confidence in global oil demand recovery through the...

Vandana Hari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)