External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. </li><li>The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the incredible resilience of the Canadian economy to the rapid rise in interest rates.</li><li>Low and accommodative real interest rates, record low unemployment, combined with increased net wealth through rising home equity and excess savings and high oil prices drove a substantial increase in Canadians’ desired level of consumption.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the incredible resilience of the Canadian economy to the rapid rise in interest rates.Low and accommodative real interest rates, record low unemployment, combined with increased net wealth through rising home equity and excess savings and high oil prices drove a substantial increase in Canadians’ desired level of consumption.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pent-Up Demand, Resilient Economy, and Rising Interest Rates (August 2, 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Unicredit

Unicredit Research

Unicredit

With nearly 30 analysts, UniCredit Research provides high-quality macroeconomic and financial market analysis to support clients in the development of investment plans, strategic and tactical asset allocation of financial investments, security selection and risk management. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul>
<li>Global: We are revising our global GDP growth forecasts up to 2.8% for this year and down to 2.7% for next year.</li>
<li>Business surveys suggest the solid start to the year is losing traction as the transmission of tighter monetary policy to the real economy accelerates and post-pandemic consumption shifts weigh on manufacturing.</li>
<li>Headline inflation is set to decline rapidly in advanced economies, driven by base effects, lower commodities prices, and easing cost pressures for goods, while services inflation will descend more gradually, keeping central banks on high alert.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Global: We are revising our global GDP growth forecasts up to 2.8% for this year and down to 2.7% for next year.
Business surveys suggest the solid start to the year is losing traction as the transmission of tighter monetary policy to the real economy accelerates and post-pandemic consumption shifts weigh on manufacturing.
Headline inflation is set to decline rapidly in advanced economies, driven by base effects, lower commodities prices, and easing cost pressures for goods, while services inflation will descend more gradually, keeping central banks on high alert.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Covid-19 Update: Caseload continued to decline in Mar’22 – After the accelerated rise witnessed in mid-Jan’22, Covid-19 cases in India declined throughout Mar’22</li><li>High-frequency indicators: Marginal moderation in lead indicators – Google Mobility Data has displayed a revival towards pre-pandemic levels, with Covid-19 concerns receding</li><li>Equities: Sector rotation is the key, Earnings Commentary Critical! – Mar’22 proved to be an eventful month with the rise in volatility, led by the prevailing geopolitical crisis as well as the US FED meeting and election results</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Covid-19 Update: Caseload continued to decline in Mar’22 – After the accelerated rise witnessed in mid-Jan’22, Covid-19 cases in India declined throughout Mar’22High-frequency indicators: Marginal moderation in lead indicators – Google Mobility Data has displayed a revival towards pre-pandemic levels, with Covid-19 concerns recedingEquities: Sector rotation is the key, Earnings Commentary Critical! – Mar’22 proved to be an eventful month with the rise in volatility, led by the prevailing geopolitical crisis as well as the US FED meeting and election resultsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Multi-Asset Strategy: Focus on Asset Allocation to Maximize Returns in FY23

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Vietnam's crude oil trade has shifted towards net imports since 2018. The main reason for this is that domestic demand for crude oil has surged</li><li>From 2015 onwards, the import value of petroleum has decreased significantly compared with the previous period.</li><li>In 2018, when the Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical project came into operation, the proportion of crude oil imports rose sharply, exceeding the import proportion of petroleum in 2020 and 2021.</li></ul>

Vietnam's crude oil trade has shifted towards net imports since 2018. The main reason for this is that domestic demand for crude oil has surgedFrom 2015 onwards, the import value of petroleum has decreased significantly compared with the previous period.In 2018, when the Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical project came into operation, the proportion of crude oil imports rose sharply, exceeding the import proportion of petroleum in 2020 and 2021.

Oil Price Shock’s Impacts on Vietnam’s Oil and Gas Industry

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Commodities

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating on the energy sector and project a 6% CAGR for 2Y core EPS (2025-27E).</li><li>We expect the Israel-Iran tensions to remain localized to the directly involved parties.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecast, expecting 2Y core EPS growth at a moderate +6% CAGR.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating on the energy sector and project a 6% CAGR for 2Y core EPS (2025-27E).We expect the Israel-Iran tensions to remain localized to the directly involved parties.We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecast, expecting 2Y core EPS growth at a moderate +6% CAGR.

Solid Fundamentals Amid Geopolitical Risk; Mixed 2Q25E Earnings

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Pent-Up Demand, Resilient Economy, and Rising Interest Rates (August 2, 2023)

Since 2020Q2, actual consumption has been below desired. The gap between the two —a measure of pent -up demand —explains in large part the...

Scotiabank

UniCredit Research - Economics Chartbook

Global: We are revising our global GDP growth forecasts up to 2.8% for this year and down to 2.7% for next year. Business surveys suggest the solid...

Unicredit Research

Axis Multi-Asset Strategy: Focus on Asset Allocation to Maximize Returns in FY23

Covid-19 Update: Caseload continued to decline in Mar’22 – After the accelerated rise witnessed in mid-Jan’22, Covid-19 cases in India declined...

Axis Direct

Oil Price Shock’s Impacts on Vietnam’s Oil and Gas Industry

Vietnam's crude oil trade has shifted towards net imports since 2018. The main reason for this is that domestic demand for crude oil has surged

Mirae Asset Securities

Solid Fundamentals Amid Geopolitical Risk; Mixed 2Q25E Earnings

We maintain a Neutral rating on the energy sector and project a 6% CAGR for 2Y core EPS (2025-27E). We expect the Israel-Iran tensions to remain...

Krungthai XSpring

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