Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil, gas and metals. A cyclical commodity bull market.</li><li>I'm in favor of combating man-made climate change and replacing most fossil fuels with renewables in the long term, but the way we are currently going about it is not realistic and will end badly for society and also in high commodity prices and much higher cost of living.</li><li>Why is that the case? Everyone wants renewable energy but no one wants to invest in the raw materials needed to build the EVs, the power lines, or the battery capacity. Due to political pressure, the financial world has had to jump on the #ESG bandwagon.</li></ul>

Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil, gas and metals. A cyclical commodity bull market.I'm in favor of combating man-made climate change and replacing most fossil fuels with renewables in the long term, but the way we are currently going about it is not realistic and will end badly for society and also in high commodity prices and much higher cost of living.Why is that the case? Everyone wants renewable energy but no one wants to invest in the raw materials needed to build the EVs, the power lines, or the battery capacity. Due to political pressure, the financial world has had to jump on the #ESG bandwagon.

<ul><li>Commodities rallied as the dollar weakened and real rates declined again.</li><li>As you can see above, the CRB index bounced right from the 200D MA.</li><li>More important commodities did so even while GDP data was worse than expected. </li></ul>

Commodities rallied as the dollar weakened and real rates declined again.As you can see above, the CRB index bounced right from the 200D MA.More important commodities did so even while GDP data was worse than expected. 

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. </li><li>There is the usual talk of ‘Dr Copper, the metal with a PhD in Economics and the (tedious) refrain that equity markets are full of economic naïfs, while bond markets are full of wise old economists</li><li>Except of course, markets don’t actually work like that and, while the market is usually a much better indicator of the real world than any of the models employed by experts, we need to understand <em>what</em> it is telling us at any given time</li></ul>

The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity, i.e a collapse in demand, a recession and a reduction in the threat of inflation. There is the usual talk of ‘Dr Copper, the metal with a PhD in Economics and the (tedious) refrain that equity markets are full of economic naïfs, while bond markets are full of wise old economistsExcept of course, markets don’t actually work like that and, while the market is usually a much better indicator of the real world than any of the models employed by experts, we need to understand what it is telling us at any given time

<ul><li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,5% lower</li><li>Things won’t get better and the current dump of energy products on the futures marketplace is in my opinion only a short-term phenomenon, caused by an ultra hawkish FED that will lead the economy into a recession and that probably with a hard and not a soft landing.</li><li>Since the covid pandemic began and economies around the world started to go all in on renewable plans, not only production capacity was shut down but also refinery capacity</li></ul>

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,5% lowerThings won’t get better and the current dump of energy products on the futures marketplace is in my opinion only a short-term phenomenon, caused by an ultra hawkish FED that will lead the economy into a recession and that probably with a hard and not a soft landing.Since the covid pandemic began and economies around the world started to go all in on renewable plans, not only production capacity was shut down but also refinery capacity

<ul>
<li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower.</li>
<li>What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the treasury markets, I think it’s important to remember the typical cycle of asset classes.</li>
<li>Usually, treasuries bottom first, then follow stocks and at the end commodities. We saw the same cycle peaking in 2020 with bonds peaking first, followed by stocks and now commodities.</li>
</ul>


The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower.
What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the treasury markets, I think it’s important to remember the typical cycle of asset classes.
Usually, treasuries bottom first, then follow stocks and at the end commodities. We saw the same cycle peaking in 2020 with bonds peaking first, followed by stocks and now commodities.


United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

The Commodity Report #64

Here is what is structurally wrong in the way leaders/politicians and people in general talk about the green transition, about fossil fuels, oil,...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #62

Commodities rallied as the dollar weakened and real rates declined again. As you can see above, the CRB index bounced right from the 200D MA.

The Commodity Report

Prices, Probabilities and Predictions

The rally in the 10 year bond and the selloff in Commodity prices have been taken by many pundits as ‘Predictions’ of future economic activity

Mark Tinker

The Commodity Report #60

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,5% lower. Things won’t get better and the current dump of energy products on the futures...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #59

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,4% lower. What bottoms usually first? Bonds! While we may be some weeks off the low in the...

The Commodity Report

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