Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In last week’s Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite hawkish Fed takeaways, it was the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war that was the bigger story, however both weighed on global equities. Needless to say, everything we highlighted last week as being at a key inflection point failed to resolve in a manner that was bullish for equities. Below we highlight several developments we are watching which will help determine if the current pullback will be similar to what happened in May, or if we should expect a deeper correction. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Large-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, Gold, South Africa, and Silver, Platinum

In last week’s Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite hawkish Fed takeaways, it was the escalation in the U.S.-China trade war that was the bigger story, however both weighed on global equities. Needless to say, everything we highlighted last week as being at a key inflection point failed to resolve in a manner that was bullish for equities. Below we highlight several developments we are watching which will help determine if the current pullback will be similar to what happened in May, or if we should expect a deeper correction. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Large-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, Gold, South Africa, and Silver, Platinum

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The Fed rate cut was supposed to be the news highlight of last week, but it had receded into the background by the time Friday arrived, thanks to Trump’s abrupt and unexpected announcement of fresh import tariffs against China.</li>
<li>For the oil market, which had assumed an impasse on the US-China trade war front but certainly no deterioration following the “Osaka truce”, the calculus has changed yet again.</li>
<li>It is not just the Fed, but also the ECB and major central banks across the world that have been turning dovish in synchronicity. An escalating US-China trade war could increase the pressure on them to flood wobbling economies with easy money.</li>
<li>What does this mean for oil prices?</li>
</ul>


The Fed rate cut was supposed to be the news highlight of last week, but it had receded into the background by the time Friday arrived, thanks to Trump’s abrupt and unexpected announcement of fresh import tariffs against China.
For the oil market, which had assumed an impasse on the US-China trade war front but certainly no deterioration following the “Osaka truce”, the calculus has changed yet again.
It is not just the Fed, but also the ECB and major central banks across the world that have been turning dovish in synchronicity. An escalating US-China trade war could increase the pressure on them to flood wobbling economies with easy money.
What does this mean for oil prices?


Weekly Oil Views: Trump's New China Tariffs Strengthen the Bear Case for Oil

<ul>
<li>US second-quarter GDP growth slowed down to 2.1%, from 3.1% in Q1. The IMF yet again revised down its forecast for 2019 global economic growth; the projected figure of 3.2% would be the weakest since the 2009 Global Financial Crisis.</li>
<li>US stock markets remain buoyant, ahead of a widely expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve when it meets over July 30-31.</li>
<li>However, the oil market remains immune to the euphoria enveloping equities. Such is the stranglehold of bleak global oil demand growth expectations, that crude continues to languish 15% below year-to-date highs, seen in late-April.</li>
<li>The simmering tensions in the Middle East have raised security concerns around the passage of vital oil shipments through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz but are not prompting any pre-emptive longs in the crude market.</li>
</ul>


US second-quarter GDP growth slowed down to 2.1%, from 3.1% in Q1. The IMF yet again revised down its forecast for 2019 global economic growth; the projected figure of 3.2% would be the weakest since the 2009 Global Financial Crisis.
US stock markets remain buoyant, ahead of a widely expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve when it meets over July 30-31.
However, the oil market remains immune to the euphoria enveloping equities. Such is the stranglehold of bleak global oil demand growth expectations, that crude continues to languish 15% below year-to-date highs, seen in late-April.
The simmering tensions in the Middle East have raised security concerns around the passage of vital oil shipments through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz but are not prompting any pre-emptive longs in the crude market.


Weekly Oil Views: Crude in a Holding Pattern Even as Mideast Tensions Simmer

Tuesday, July 16: President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggest the US and Iran are on the road to a rapprochement. Iranian leadership denies and contradicts. Incredulous! But benchmark crude futures plunge 3% in a single session.
Thursday, July 18: President Donald Trump says that a US warship shot down an Iranian drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
Friday, July 19: Iran says it has seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Britain summons Tehran's top diplomat in London, warns UK ships to temporarily avoid the strait, a narrow waterway adjoining Iran.
World’s oil supplies flowing from the Middle East are under threat. And yet, crude ends the week 6-8% lower. 
Is crude over-sold, and why is the geopolitical fear premium failing to stick? We give you our perspective.

Tuesday, July 16: President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggest the US and Iran are on the road to a rapprochement. Iranian leadership denies and contradicts. Incredulous! But benchmark crude futures plunge 3% in a single session.
Thursday, July 18: President Donald Trump says that a US warship shot down an Iranian drone over the Strait of Hormuz.
Friday, July 19: Iran says it has seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Britain summons Tehran's top diplomat in London, warns UK ships to temporarily avoid the strait, a narrow waterway adjoining Iran.
World’s oil supplies flowing from the Middle East are under threat. And yet, crude ends the week 6-8% lower. 
Is crude over-sold, and why is the geopolitical fear premium failing to stick? We give you our perspective.

Weekly Oil Views: Mideast Tensions in Bear's Clothing

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends.  In this report we highlight such opportunities, within the Technology, Consumer Staples and Services Sectors.

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical resistance, and indicators continue to send mixed signals. As a result we are hesitant to get too bullish or bearish. Instead we want to focus on Sector/Group/industry themes where we bottoming price and RS, or attractive pullback opportunities within established price and RS uptrends.  In this report we highlight such opportunities, within the Technology, Consumer Staples and Services Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Here We Go Again

In last week’s Compass we laid the case that markets were at a key inflection point heading into the first Fed rate cut in over a decade. Despite...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Oil Views: Trump's New China Tariffs Strengthen the Bear Case for Oil

The Fed rate cut was supposed to be the news highlight of last week, but it had receded into the background by the time Friday arrived, thanks to...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Crude in a Holding Pattern Even as Mideast Tensions Simmer

US second-quarter GDP growth slowed down to 2.1%, from 3.1% in Q1. The IMF yet again revised down its forecast for 2019 global economic growth;...

Vandana Hari

Weekly Oil Views: Mideast Tensions in Bear's Clothing

Tuesday, July 16: President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggest the US and Iran are on the road to a rapprochement. Iranian...

Vandana Hari

Global Equity Strategy: Not Too Bullish, Not Too Bearish

Despite several indexes recently touching new 52+ week highs, broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain near logical...

Vermilion Research

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