Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the time being, at least, our trading range peak for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains roughly intact, despite intensified exchanges between the U.S. and Iran.</li>
<li>At this point we see no reason to revise our outlook, though there are reports that President Trump is considering far more aggressive military action.       </li>
<li>While the EIA reported a crude oil stock draw for last week versus our estimated build, a primary reason was a smaller contribution from the SPR than we estimated.    </li>
</ul>


For the time being, at least, our trading range peak for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract remains roughly intact, despite intensified exchanges between the U.S. and Iran.
At this point we see no reason to revise our outlook, though there are reports that President Trump is considering far more aggressive military action.       
While the EIA reported a crude oil stock draw for last week versus our estimated build, a primary reason was a smaller contribution from the SPR than we estimated.    


Morning Market Notes: Trading Range Peak Remains Intact for Now, But President Trump May Escalate

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

<ul><li>Oil futures initially shot higher on Tuesday with Brent hitting its highest level in a month, as a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared to be in tatters as the two traded blows over control of the Strait of Hormuz.</li><li>At 2121 London time, the Sep26 Brent contract was trading up 2.53% on the day at $85.41/b while Sep26 WTI was up 2.18% at $79.84/b .</li><li>Brent had soared to $87.55/b in early trade, the highest since mid-June, with the Middle East squarely in focus as the main driver of price action, although benchmarks retreated as the session progressed.</li></ul>

Oil futures initially shot higher on Tuesday with Brent hitting its highest level in a month, as a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared to be in tatters as the two traded blows over control of the Strait of Hormuz.At 2121 London time, the Sep26 Brent contract was trading up 2.53% on the day at $85.41/b while Sep26 WTI was up 2.18% at $79.84/b .Brent had soared to $87.55/b in early trade, the highest since mid-June, with the Middle East squarely in focus as the main driver of price action, although benchmarks retreated as the session progressed.

Oil futures: Crude off highs, US-Iran tensions remain elevated

<ul><li>Oil futures were trading largely flat Wednesday at around one-month highs as the market continued to reprice risk around a deteriorating security situation in the Middle East.</li><li>At 2136 London time,  Brent Sep26 futures were trading up 1.28% on the day at  $85.81/b , while Sep26 WTI was up slightly less than Brent at  $80.31/b .</li><li>The latest leg of the rally came after the June truce between the US and Iran continued to unravel, with Washington reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and launching fresh strikes on targets it said were linked to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.</li></ul>

Oil futures were trading largely flat Wednesday at around one-month highs as the market continued to reprice risk around a deteriorating security situation in the Middle East.At 2136 London time,  Brent Sep26 futures were trading up 1.28% on the day at  $85.81/b , while Sep26 WTI was up slightly less than Brent at  $80.31/b .The latest leg of the rally came after the June truce between the US and Iran continued to unravel, with Washington reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and launching fresh strikes on targets it said were linked to attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil futures: Crude holds at recent highs with Hormuz in focus

<ul>
<li>In terms of the “temperature,” if the previous “quid pro quo” was 99 degrees and “all-out war” is “110 in the shade,” we guess we are at 102 degrees. </li>
<li>The higher "temperature" has pulled the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract only modestly above our estimated $80.00 per barrel peak, which was consistent with the 99 degree “quid pro quo.”      </li>
<li>While obviously the conflict could intensify further, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel, and even $90.00 may be difficult to achieve, short of all-out war, as previously defined.     </li>
</ul>


In terms of the “temperature,” if the previous “quid pro quo” was 99 degrees and “all-out war” is “110 in the shade,” we guess we are at 102 degrees. 
The higher "temperature" has pulled the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract only modestly above our estimated $80.00 per barrel peak, which was consistent with the 99 degree “quid pro quo.”      
While obviously the conflict could intensify further, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel, and even $90.00 may be difficult to achieve, short of all-out war, as previously defined.     


Morning Market Notes: Arabian Gulf Temperature Still Rising, But Not Yet "110 In the Shade"

<ul>
<li>The U.S.-Iran conflict’s “temperature” has now risen above the level we had assumed for our estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.</li>
<li>Still short of how we defined an “all-out war,” it nonetheless raises the risk that our $80.00 per barrel trading range peak for the prompt NYMEX contract may be “violated.”     </li>
<li>In any event, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.    </li>
</ul>


The U.S.-Iran conflict’s “temperature” has now risen above the level we had assumed for our estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.
Still short of how we defined an “all-out war,” it nonetheless raises the risk that our $80.00 per barrel trading range peak for the prompt NYMEX contract may be “violated.”     
In any event, we still do not anticipate $100.00 per barrel for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.    


Morning Market Notes: The "Temperature" Has Now Risen, As Has the Risk to Our Trading Range Peak

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Morning Market Notes: Trading Range Peak Remains Intact for Now, But President Trump May Escalate

Despite tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the trading range peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains steady, unless there is a major escalation...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude off highs, US-Iran tensions remain elevated

Oil futures initially shot higher on Tuesday with Brent hitting its highest level in a month as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire appeared to in tatters...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil futures: Crude holds at recent highs with Hormuz in focus

Oil futures were pushing higher for a third consecutive session at a one-month as the market continued to reprice risk...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Arabian Gulf Temperature Still Rising, But Not Yet "110 In the Shade"

Tensions in the oil market rise further amid military/geopolitical conflict, but $100 per barrel still unlikely without all-out war.

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: The "Temperature" Has Now Risen, As Has the Risk to Our Trading Range Peak

Rising U.S.-Iran conflict raises risk of surpassing $80 per barrel for NYMEX crude oil, but $100 per barrel not anticipated.

William H Brown III

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Morning Market Notes: Trading Range Peak Remains Intact for Now, But President Trump May Escalate

​Despite tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the trading range peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains steady, unless there is a major escalation...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude off highs, US-Iran tensions remain elevated

Oil futures initially shot higher on Tuesday with Brent hitting its highest level in a month as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire appeared to in tatters...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Oil futures: Crude holds at recent highs with Hormuz in focus

Oil futures were pushing higher for a third consecutive session at a one-month as the market continued to reprice risk...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Morning Market Notes: Arabian Gulf Temperature Still Rising, But Not Yet "110 In the Shade"

​Tensions in the oil market rise further amid military/geopolitical conflict, but $100 per barrel still unlikely without all-out war.

William H Brown III

Morning Market Notes: The "Temperature" Has Now Risen, As Has the Risk to Our Trading Range Peak

​Rising U.S.-Iran conflict raises risk of surpassing $80 per barrel for NYMEX crude oil, but $100 per barrel not anticipated.

William H Brown III

Despite tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the trading range peak for NYMEX crude oil contract remains steady, unless there is a major escalation...

Tensions in the oil market rise further amid military/geopolitical conflict, but $100 per barrel still unlikely without all-out war.

Rising U.S.-Iran conflict raises risk of surpassing $80 per barrel for NYMEX crude oil, but $100 per barrel not anticipated.