Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.</li><li>The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.</li><li>FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.</li></ul>

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and energy is reasonable and we also expect this trend to continue for a little while.The latest BofA fund manager survey showed how extreme the position is currently and how little cash professional investors currently have to allocate.FMS cash level fell from 4.3% to 3.9% of AUM, matching the lowest level since Jun '21.

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

<ul><li>Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs - putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.</li><li>The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.</li><li>The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I</li></ul>

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs - putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

<ul><li>Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.</li><li>The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.</li><li>Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.</li></ul>

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

<ul><li>Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.</li><li>This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.</li><li>Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.</li></ul>

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Investors Are Max Long Stocks & Bearish Commodities

While the sentiment around the “long US equities trade” seems to be extended and due for a correction, the bearish positioning in commodities and...

The Commodity Report

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts,...

The Commodity Report

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second...

The Commodity Report

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)