Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The oil price squeeze continues - as a reminder, we believe the surge only to be driven by macro-volatility therefore we don’t like trading it.</li><li>the price clearly jumped out of the $50 to $75 trading range the price action established for the past 2.5 years.</li><li>In the meantime we’re closely tracking grain prices - as instruments like soybeans, corn and wheat were in a bull regime according to our framework already.</li></ul>

The oil price squeeze continues - as a reminder, we believe the surge only to be driven by macro-volatility therefore we don’t like trading it.the price clearly jumped out of the $50 to $75 trading range the price action established for the past 2.5 years.In the meantime we’re closely tracking grain prices - as instruments like soybeans, corn and wheat were in a bull regime according to our framework already.

Oil Price Squeeze Continues / But Be Careful

<ul><li>Many commodities are currently in a range pattern after they were in a prolonged bull streak for months.</li><li>This is nothing unusual and happens all the time within healthy uptrends.</li><li>BUT there are also instances when prolonged bull markets tend to end - due to changing fundamentals…like for example cocoa.</li></ul>

Many commodities are currently in a range pattern after they were in a prolonged bull streak for months.This is nothing unusual and happens all the time within healthy uptrends.BUT there are also instances when prolonged bull markets tend to end - due to changing fundamentals…like for example cocoa.

Will the Coffee Trade become the new Cocoa?

<ul><li>Our strategy approach is to filter various information sources and apply our clear investment process on top of it.</li><li>There are two reasons for us to enter a trade: …our quant system tells us to do so …or we make a discretionary manager decision based on market fundamentals that the quant system will only grasp with a time-lag</li><li>While not only moving sideways, the oil complex is currently drastically underperforming other parts of the commodity complex.</li></ul>

Our strategy approach is to filter various information sources and apply our clear investment process on top of it.There are two reasons for us to enter a trade: …our quant system tells us to do so …or we make a discretionary manager decision based on market fundamentals that the quant system will only grasp with a time-lagWhile not only moving sideways, the oil complex is currently drastically underperforming other parts of the commodity complex.

Be Careful With Metals & Why we currently don’t touch Oil Markets

<ul><li>Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down - as panic selling hit the complex.</li><li>The reason for the panic selling: president Trump.</li><li>In an announcement on Thursday evening, Trump hinted that there could be a near-term deal reached to lower beef prices. How exactly such a deal would look like isn’t clear, though.</li></ul>

Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down - as panic selling hit the complex.The reason for the panic selling: president Trump.In an announcement on Thursday evening, Trump hinted that there could be a near-term deal reached to lower beef prices. How exactly such a deal would look like isn’t clear, though.

<ul><li>Meanwhile, the other commodity cohorts are now deeply “undervalued” when compared to the price of gold.</li><li>Commodities excluding gold, relative to gold prices, have fallen to their lowest level since 2021, according to a graphic by Topdown Charts…</li><li>In the latest UBS CTA-flow analysis, the investment bank says that it “expects more agricultural buybacks in the coming weeks.” </li></ul>

Meanwhile, the other commodity cohorts are now deeply “undervalued” when compared to the price of gold.Commodities excluding gold, relative to gold prices, have fallen to their lowest level since 2021, according to a graphic by Topdown Charts…In the latest UBS CTA-flow analysis, the investment bank says that it “expects more agricultural buybacks in the coming weeks.” 

Gold Reaches New All-Time Highs & UBS Expects More Agriculture Buying

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Oil Price Squeeze Continues / But Be Careful

The oil price squeeze continues - as a reminder, we believe the surge only to be driven by macro-volatility therefore we don’t like trading it.

The Commodity Report

Will the Coffee Trade become the new Cocoa?

Many commodities are currently in a range pattern after they were in a prolonged bull streak for months. This is nothing unusual and happens all...

The Commodity Report

Be Careful With Metals & Why we currently don’t touch Oil Markets

While not only moving sideways, the oil complex is currently drastically underperforming other parts of the commodity complex.

The Commodity Report

Did Trump Just Tank the Meat Markets?

Live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the open Friday, with some feeder cattle contracts touching even limit down - as panic selling hit...

The Commodity Report

Gold Reaches New All-Time Highs & UBS Expects More Agriculture Buying

Commodities excluding gold, relative to gold prices, have fallen to their lowest level since 2021, according to a graphic by Topdown Charts…

The Commodity Report

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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