Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.</li><li>Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.</li><li>I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro.Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” That, in itself, says a lot about sentiment.I’m currently making my way home from the U.S. after meeting with a ton of investors over the past three days, and I’ve come away with the view that a weaker USD is now the pain trade.

Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

Commodities

<ul><li>Trump signed emergency declarations to address energy and minerals inadequacy in the US</li><li>Plans to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, pressure OPEC to lower prices</li><li>Unclear what powers these declarations unlock, potential impact on energy and metal projects</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Trump signed emergency declarations to address energy and minerals inadequacy in the USPlans to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, pressure OPEC to lower pricesUnclear what powers these declarations unlock, potential impact on energy and metal projectsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Emergency or policy? Unpacking Trump’s take on US energy and metals

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Let’s start with DeepSeek.</li><li>The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.</li><li>With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.</li></ul>

Let’s start with DeepSeek.The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted.With barriers to entry for AI development rapidly lowering and efficiency gains fueling greater demand rather than less, it seems inevitable that this trend will reshape the AI landscape.

The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.</li>
<li>The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.</li>
<li>Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. The dust has yet to settle, but the selloff has been largely contained to AI-linked stocks.
The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 was roughly flat yesterday.
Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy. Bottom line: as long as the S&amp;P 500 remains above 5600-5670, our long-term outlook remains bullish.


S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crude-oil" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22869:1" rel="noopener">Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)</a> has been pulling back last week, and this week started with another drop (in sync with falling US stocks).</li>
<li>The commodity may be reaching soon a a support area with a high probability of reversal. There are various conflicting forecasts for Oil, our forecast is only short-term. </li>
<li>Our Crude Oil model indicates the 74-70 support area as oversold, a reversal of the trend may begin from there, the trend could continue higher afterwards.</li>
</ul>



Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY) has been pulling back last week, and this week started with another drop (in sync with falling US stocks).
The commodity may be reaching soon a a support area with a high probability of reversal. There are various conflicting forecasts for Oil, our forecast is only short-term. 
Our Crude Oil model indicates the 74-70 support area as oversold, a reversal of the trend may begin from there, the trend could continue higher afterwards.


Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro. Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go...

Steno Research

Emergency or policy? Unpacking Trump’s take on US energy and metals

President Trump signed emergency declarations related to energy and critical minerals, hinted at possible tariffs on imports from Mexico and...

Commodities Focus

The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

Let’s start with DeepSeek. The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted. With barriers to entry for AI...

Steno Research

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

$SPX Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness; $DXY, Treasury yields, and crude oil near-term tops...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near

Crude Oil is pulling back, 2 weeks down, nearly oversold, we see strong support for reversal in the 74-70 price area. A reversal could lead to a...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside

Happy Sunday, everyone, and welcome to our weekly editorial on all things macro. Everyone I’ve spoken to today has asked me, “How would you go...

Steno Research

Emergency or policy? Unpacking Trump’s take on US energy and metals

President Trump signed emergency declarations related to energy and critical minerals, hinted at possible tariffs on imports from Mexico and...

Commodities Focus

The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here

Let’s start with DeepSeek. The trajectory toward singularity may be accelerating faster than previously forecasted. With barriers to entry for AI...

Steno Research

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness

$SPX Testing Prior Breakout Level; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy Despite AI-Linked Weakness; $DXY, Treasury yields, and crude oil near-term tops...

Vermilion Research

Crude Oil: A Buying Opportunity Could Be Near

​Crude Oil is pulling back, 2 weeks down, nearly oversold, we see strong support for reversal in the 74-70 price area. A reversal could lead to a...

Nico Rosti

Crude Oil is pulling back, 2 weeks down, nearly oversold, we see strong support for reversal in the 74-70 price area. A reversal could lead to a...