Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Crude oil prices ended Monday lower but fell less than other commodities and equities. WTI dropped 0.79% and Brent fell 0.66%, while the S&amp;P 500 declined 3%.</li>
<li>Crude oil prices were supported by rising Middle East tensions, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field, and a sharp decline in the DXY.</li>
<li>Henry Hub futures fell 1.27% due to surplus stockpiles, cooler US weather forecasts, and the impact of Hurricane Debby.</li>
</ul>


Crude oil prices ended Monday lower but fell less than other commodities and equities. WTI dropped 0.79% and Brent fell 0.66%, while the S&amp;P 500 declined 3%.
Crude oil prices were supported by rising Middle East tensions, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field, and a sharp decline in the DXY.
Henry Hub futures fell 1.27% due to surplus stockpiles, cooler US weather forecasts, and the impact of Hurricane Debby.


Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

<ul>
<li>The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).</li>
<li>On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.</li>
</ul>


The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&amp;P 500.
Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).
On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.


Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Take aways: China will be a key player for gold markets. MBS suffering even more as crude tumbles. High frequency indicators don’t scream recession in the US. </li>
<li>Hi and welcome to this week’s Energy Cable! We will do a short note this week as many of you are mostly trying to extinguish fires due to the sell-offs in markets.</li>
<li>We have two major themes regarding commodities that we’ll focus on today, namely gold and crude.</li>
</ul>


Take aways: China will be a key player for gold markets. MBS suffering even more as crude tumbles. High frequency indicators don’t scream recession in the US. 
Hi and welcome to this week’s Energy Cable! We will do a short note this week as many of you are mostly trying to extinguish fires due to the sell-offs in markets.
We have two major themes regarding commodities that we’ll focus on today, namely gold and crude.


Energy Cable: Why Chinese Flows Govern Gold Markets, Not Western Cutting Cycles

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count declined by three to 586 for the week ending 02/Aug, following two consecutive weeks of increases. </li>
<li>The US oil rig count held steady at 482, after rising by 5 last week. Gas rigs decreased by three to 98, marking a second consecutive weekly decline.  </li>
<li>In May, US crude oil production experienced its first monthly decline since January, while natural gas output dropped to its lowest level since February 2023. </li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count declined by three to 586 for the week ending 02/Aug, following two consecutive weeks of increases. 
The US oil rig count held steady at 482, after rising by 5 last week. Gas rigs decreased by three to 98, marking a second consecutive weekly decline.  
In May, US crude oil production experienced its first monthly decline since January, while natural gas output dropped to its lowest level since February 2023. 


Drop in Gas Rigs Drives US Rig Count Downward

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.</li>
<li>The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.</li>
<li>A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.</li>
</ul>


Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.
The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.
A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.


Asset Allocation Watch  – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

Crude oil prices dipped on Monday but outperformed other commodities and equities. Rising Middle East tensions, Libya oil field shutdown, and DXY...

Mint Finance

Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable: Why Chinese Flows Govern Gold Markets, Not Western Cutting Cycles

Take aways: China will be a key player for gold marketsMBS suffering even more as crude tumblesHigh frequency indicators don’t scream recession in...

Steno Research

Drop in Gas Rigs Drives US Rig Count Downward

As of the week ending 02/Aug, the U.S. total rig count fell by 3 to 586, marking a decline for the first time in three weeks. Oil rigs remained...

Mint Finance

Asset Allocation Watch – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September. The simple playbook is often...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

​Crude oil prices dipped on Monday but outperformed other commodities and equities. Rising Middle East tensions, Libya oil field shutdown, and DXY...

Mint Finance

Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

​Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable: Why Chinese Flows Govern Gold Markets, Not Western Cutting Cycles

Take aways: China will be a key player for gold marketsMBS suffering even more as crude tumblesHigh frequency indicators don’t scream recession in...

Steno Research

Drop in Gas Rigs Drives US Rig Count Downward

As of the week ending 02/Aug, the U.S. total rig count fell by 3 to 586, marking a decline for the first time in three weeks. Oil rigs remained...

Mint Finance

Asset Allocation Watch – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September. The simple playbook is often...

Steno Research

Crude oil prices dipped on Monday but outperformed other commodities and equities. Rising Middle East tensions, Libya oil field shutdown, and DXY...

Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 on Monday despite a drop in crude oil prices, with elevated volume PCR and rising IV for most oil & gas...