Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs - putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.</li><li>The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.</li><li>The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I</li></ul>

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs - putting out a price target of $3.000 USD till end of 2025.The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case.The bank sees a sideways market in crude as its base case. “In our baseline forecast, we continue to see oil prices as range-bound, with Brent likely to stay in a $70-$85/bbl range. I

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

<ul><li>Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.</li><li>The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.</li><li>Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.</li></ul>

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

<ul><li>Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.</li><li>This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.</li><li>Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.</li></ul>

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.This surge was notably fueled by a record 1.6M ADV in August, marking a 19% increase in growth year over year.Drought conditions in Brazil, poor weather in the Black sea, low river levels, increased fund participation and low cattle herd have traders turning to Agricultural futures and options as essential tools for managing risk.

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

<ul><li>China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China's corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.</li><li>Still, as it seems this might not be enough to even lift prices up a little bit. Local prices have ticked higher since the end of September, but they’re still close to four-year lows.</li><li>Stockpiles of corn are plentiful, and demand is currently sluggish as the second-largest economy of the world battles its own economy demons at the moment.</li></ul>

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China's corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.Still, as it seems this might not be enough to even lift prices up a little bit. Local prices have ticked higher since the end of September, but they’re still close to four-year lows.Stockpiles of corn are plentiful, and demand is currently sluggish as the second-largest economy of the world battles its own economy demons at the moment.

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat // Bad News Again for Orange Production

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 // Bonds Into Year-End?

Goldman Thinks Commodities Will Outperform in 2025 Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts,...

The Commodity Report

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second...

The Commodity Report

The Cattle Cycle - Higher Prices for Longer?

Futures Trading is Booming - due to Weather Risks Agricultural futures and options closed Q3 with 10% growth compared to Q3 2023.

The Commodity Report

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat // Bad News Again for Orange Production

China’s Corn Under Extreme Weather Threat China's corn production is currently under pressure due to extreme weather events in the country.

The Commodity Report

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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