Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US commercial crude oil inventory fell by 1.36 million barrels for the week ending on 3/May, after rising by 7.3 million barrels the week before.</li>
<li>EIA increased its global liquid fuels production for 2024 and 2025 by 110,000 bpd and 40,000 bpd, respectively.</li>
<li>EIA forecasts OPEC's spare production capacity around 4 million bpd through 2025.</li>
</ul>


US commercial crude oil inventory fell by 1.36 million barrels for the week ending on 3/May, after rising by 7.3 million barrels the week before.
EIA increased its global liquid fuels production for 2024 and 2025 by 110,000 bpd and 40,000 bpd, respectively.
EIA forecasts OPEC's spare production capacity around 4 million bpd through 2025.


Balanced Fundamentals To Soften Crude Oil Prices

<ul>
<li>EIA raised its crude oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025, cites higher global oil consumption outlook and concerns over geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>The agency also increased global liquid fuels production outlook for 2024 compared to the previous month.</li>
<li>Increased forecast on US retail gasoline prices relative to March STEO, expects lower gasoline inventories and higher net exports drive price rise.</li>
</ul>


EIA raised its crude oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025, cites higher global oil consumption outlook and concerns over geopolitical tensions.
The agency also increased global liquid fuels production outlook for 2024 compared to the previous month.
Increased forecast on US retail gasoline prices relative to March STEO, expects lower gasoline inventories and higher net exports drive price rise.


EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply

<ul>
<li>OPEC+ decides to keep output targets intact till June. Iraq and Kazakhstan vow to compensate for overproduction.</li>
<li>OPEC+ pressed its members to improve compliance with production quotas in Q22024.</li>
<li>Expansion in US crude stockpiles slightly dampens the bull run of oil prices. While gasoline and distillate drawdowns come in better-than-expectations.</li>
</ul>


OPEC+ decides to keep output targets intact till June. Iraq and Kazakhstan vow to compensate for overproduction.
OPEC+ pressed its members to improve compliance with production quotas in Q22024.
Expansion in US crude stockpiles slightly dampens the bull run of oil prices. While gasoline and distillate drawdowns come in better-than-expectations.


Oil Prices Surge on OPEC+ Decision, US Inventory Buildup Slows Momentum

<ul>
<li>USA’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) is currently at its lowest in 40 years. Should this be a source of concern? Perhaps not.</li>
<li>USA is the world’s largest producer of crude oil. From being vulnerable to imported oil, US has become self-reliant.</li>
<li>SPR expressed differently now, stands at 188 days of net imports compared to less than 100 days as was seen in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s.</li>
</ul>


USA’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) is currently at its lowest in 40 years. Should this be a source of concern? Perhaps not.
USA is the world’s largest producer of crude oil. From being vulnerable to imported oil, US has become self-reliant.
SPR expressed differently now, stands at 188 days of net imports compared to less than 100 days as was seen in the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s.


Dominant US Crude Production Has Transformed the Importance and Size of Strategic Petroleum Reserve

<ul>
<li>Oil prices are buoyant as the market largely expects OPEC+ to keep the supply cut policy intact till June. </li>
<li>Global oil demand outlook improves as the US and China see pick up in manufacturing activity after one-and-a-half years and six months, respectively. </li>
<li>Russia decides to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in Q22024, implying a surprise shift in policy.  </li>
</ul>


Oil prices are buoyant as the market largely expects OPEC+ to keep the supply cut policy intact till June. 
Global oil demand outlook improves as the US and China see pick up in manufacturing activity after one-and-a-half years and six months, respectively. 
Russia decides to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in Q22024, implying a surprise shift in policy.  


Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Balanced Fundamentals To Soften Crude Oil Prices

US crude oil inventory decreased, EIA predicts higher global liquid fuels production, and OPEC's spare capacity to remain around 4 million bpd...

Mint Finance

EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply

EIA's April STEO reveals upward revisions in global oil consumption, production, and price forecasts. It also raises forecast on gasoline prices...

Mint Finance

Oil Prices Surge on OPEC+ Decision, US Inventory Buildup Slows Momentum

OPEC+ holds firm on output targets, propelling oil prices higher amid supply fears and geopolitical tensions. US inventory buildup tempers gains.

Mint Finance

Dominant US Crude Production Has Transformed the Importance and Size of Strategic Petroleum Reserve

US SPR is at a forty-year low. Should that be a source of concern? Perhaps not. As the world’s largest crude producer, USA is self-reliant on crude...

Mint Finance

Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course

Oil prices are rising due to expectations of OPEC+ maintaining supply cuts, while improved global demand and Russia's focus on reducing output...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Balanced Fundamentals To Soften Crude Oil Prices

​US crude oil inventory decreased, EIA predicts higher global liquid fuels production, and OPEC's spare capacity to remain around 4 million bpd...

Mint Finance

EIA Lifts Price Forecast on Higher Oil Consumption Plus Tighter Supply

EIA's April STEO reveals upward revisions in global oil consumption, production, and price forecasts. It also raises forecast on gasoline prices...

Mint Finance

Oil Prices Surge on OPEC+ Decision, US Inventory Buildup Slows Momentum

OPEC+ holds firm on output targets, propelling oil prices higher amid supply fears and geopolitical tensions. US inventory buildup tempers gains.

Mint Finance

Dominant US Crude Production Has Transformed the Importance and Size of Strategic Petroleum Reserve

US SPR is at a forty-year low. Should that be a source of concern? Perhaps not. As the world’s largest crude producer, USA is self-reliant on crude...

Mint Finance

Rising Geopolitical Tensions Propel Crude Oil Even as OPEC+ Will Likely Stay the Course

​Oil prices are rising due to expectations of OPEC+ maintaining supply cuts, while improved global demand and Russia's focus on reducing output...

Mint Finance

US crude oil inventory decreased, EIA predicts higher global liquid fuels production, and OPEC's spare capacity to remain around 4 million bpd...

Oil prices are rising due to expectations of OPEC+ maintaining supply cuts, while improved global demand and Russia's focus on reducing output...