Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Comirnaty had had a significant positive impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a>’s revenue in 2021. 2022 will be no different. However, outlook for COVID-19 vaccine is uncertain beyond 2022.</li>
<li>Apart from the existing blockbuster fast-growing drugs, Pfizer has a rich late-stage pipeline. Its alopecia areata drug candidate, ritlecitinib has potential to become a blockbuster drug.  </li>
<li>Pfizer aims to add $25 billion revenue to its 2030 top-line expectations. Thus far, the company has announced two deals toward this ambition, entailing potential revenue addition of $7.5 billion.</li>
</ul>


Comirnaty had had a significant positive impact on Pfizer Inc (PFE US)’s revenue in 2021. 2022 will be no different. However, outlook for COVID-19 vaccine is uncertain beyond 2022.
Apart from the existing blockbuster fast-growing drugs, Pfizer has a rich late-stage pipeline. Its alopecia areata drug candidate, ritlecitinib has potential to become a blockbuster drug.  
Pfizer aims to add $25 billion revenue to its 2030 top-line expectations. Thus far, the company has announced two deals toward this ambition, entailing potential revenue addition of $7.5 billion.


Pfizer Inc (PFE US): What’s Lie Ahead of Comirnaty? Potential Blockbuster Drugs in Pipeline

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China CITIC Financial Asset Management / Index Rebalance

China CITIC Financial Asset Management (2799 HK)

<ul>
<li>We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


We see seven new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in June. One is already a part of Connect while five will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
We see 19 potential changes to the HSCI in September. Seven of the deletions are on market cap, four on liquidity, and eight due to prolonged trading suspension.
Some of the potential deletions have large Southbound holdings and some of these could be trimmed over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s</a> oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.</li>
<li>However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.</li>
<li>PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)'s oncology drug candidate toripalimab marketing application is currently under priority review by the FDA, with a target action date of April 30, 2022.
However, FDA may reject toripalimab application, as it is predominantly based on China clinical trial data. Toripalimab may also face delay in FDA decision due to delayed regulatory inspection.
PD-1 drug market in the U.S. is intensely competitive, making the commercialization prospect of a new drug quite difficult. Toripalimab reported muted performance in China due to pricing headwind.


Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Suzhou Zelgen Biopharmaceutica / Equity Bottom-Up

Suzhou Zelgen Biopharmaceutica (688266 CH)

<ul>
<li>We analyzed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-zelgen-biopharmaceuticals-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30375:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Zelgen Biopharmaceuticals (688266 CH)</a>’s key products(Donafenib, recombinant human thrombin for topical use, Alkotinib, Jaktinib, etc.). They have to face fierce competition, VBP impact and small market size.</li>
<li>Through Gensun Biopharma, Zelgen has established the ability to develop advanced tumor immunotherapy drugs. Whether it can continue to launch new products is the key to test Zelgen's R&amp;D system.</li>
<li>We are cautious about Zelgen because uncertainties led to inaccurate prediction on market size and outlook.Investors can choose to “catch” a rebound, but Zelgen is far from a complete reversal.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed Suzhou Zelgen Biopharmaceuticals (688266 CH)’s key products(Donafenib, recombinant human thrombin for topical use, Alkotinib, Jaktinib, etc.). They have to face fierce competition, VBP impact and small market size.
Through Gensun Biopharma, Zelgen has established the ability to develop advanced tumor immunotherapy drugs. Whether it can continue to launch new products is the key to test Zelgen's R&amp;D system.
We are cautious about Zelgen because uncertainties led to inaccurate prediction on market size and outlook.Investors can choose to “catch” a rebound, but Zelgen is far from a complete reversal.


Suzhou Zelgen Biopharmaceuticals (688266.CH) - Uncertainty Leads to Inaccurate Prediction on Outlook

Equity Capital Markets

Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The candidates in Biocytogen’s pipeline do not have advantages in development progress and also have to face fierce competition, so continuous large R&amp;D investment in the future would be inevitable.</li>
<li>However, the development model of Biocytogen is very novel and special, which could make it a rare target in the market if it is successfully listed.  </li>
<li>Therefore, the certainty of Biocytogen’s future growth is expected to improve gradually, and the mid- and long-term investment value would continue to increase due to the high moat.</li>
</ul>


The candidates in Biocytogen’s pipeline do not have advantages in development progress and also have to face fierce competition, so continuous large R&amp;D investment in the future would be inevitable.
However, the development model of Biocytogen is very novel and special, which could make it a rare target in the market if it is successfully listed.  
Therefore, the certainty of Biocytogen’s future growth is expected to improve gradually, and the mid- and long-term investment value would continue to increase due to the high moat.


Pre-IPO Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals - The Novel Development Model Offset the Pipeline's Shortcomings

China

CStone Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company focused on researching, developing, and commercializing innovative immuno-oncology and precision medicines for cancer patients. It has launched multiple innovative drugs, including sugemalimab, avapritinib, and pralsetinib, to address unmet medical needs in China and globally. The company was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.

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CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616 HK)

Pfizer Inc (PFE US): What’s Lie Ahead of Comirnaty? Potential Blockbuster Drugs in Pipeline

By leveraging on windfall gains from COVID portfolio, Pfizer is developing additional growth spots for future revenue growth. Its pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

We forecast 7 adds to the HSCI in June. For the September rebalance, we forecast 19 adds & 19 deletes (7 on mkt cap, 4 on liquidity, 8 on long...

Brian Freitas

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Uncertainties Prevailing Ahead of First U.S. Drug Approval

Going by the FDA’s recent action, Junshi Bioscience’s toripalimab has a chance to get rejected by the FDA. It may miss the approval timeline....

Tina Banerjee

Suzhou Zelgen Biopharmaceuticals (688266.CH) - Uncertainty Leads to Inaccurate Prediction on Outlook

Zelgen’s key products would face fierce competition, VBP and small market size, leading to inaccurate prediction on outlook. So we choose to be...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Biocytogen Pharmaceuticals - The Novel Development Model Offset the Pipeline's Shortcomings

We analyzed the unique development strategy of Biocytogen, and also pointed out the concerns on its pipeline. However, its business model is hard...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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