Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&amp;I loans</li>
<li>Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&amp;I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&amp;I</li>
<li>Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data</li>
</ul>


There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&amp;I loans
Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&amp;I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&amp;I
Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data


US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets give a view of underlying credit conditions in the US and they are not positive. Lending growth continues to decelerate and could reach negative growth soon. </li>
<li>Cash balances are rising and this suggests that US large banks are not comfortable with risk and also seeing less opportunities. Cash/loans ratio rising fastest in most recent week. </li>
<li>Large time deposits cost the most, and their growth rate is now 109% YoY in the most recent week, rising more than loans in each of the past 3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets give a view of underlying credit conditions in the US and they are not positive. Lending growth continues to decelerate and could reach negative growth soon. 
Cash balances are rising and this suggests that US large banks are not comfortable with risk and also seeing less opportunities. Cash/loans ratio rising fastest in most recent week. 
Large time deposits cost the most, and their growth rate is now 109% YoY in the most recent week, rising more than loans in each of the past 3 weeks.


US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

<ul>
<li>New high frequency data from the Fed in its weekly H8 series for US banks, shows loan growth at 5.22% YoY in week 12 November</li>
<li>There has not been a higher rate in a long time, since mid FY23 where the data is distorted from a low base effect in FY22</li>
<li>Steepening slope of weekly loan growth together with no real rise in loan loss allowance, gives a strong view of US credit metrics, demand</li>
</ul>


New high frequency data from the Fed in its weekly H8 series for US banks, shows loan growth at 5.22% YoY in week 12 November
There has not been a higher rate in a long time, since mid FY23 where the data is distorted from a low base effect in FY22
Steepening slope of weekly loan growth together with no real rise in loan loss allowance, gives a strong view of US credit metrics, demand


US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Accelerating Further at 5.22% YoY, Highest Pace in 2 Years

<ul>
<li>There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength</li>
<li>CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital</li>
<li>Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating</li>
</ul>


There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength
CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital
Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating


US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

<ul>
<li>Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns</li>
<li>The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign</li>
<li>Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters</li>
</ul>


Fed quarterly data on net charge-off rates (NCO) and delinquency rates, does not suggest any major concerns
The data is partly backwards looking, and does not include Tricolor, First Brands, but still, data appears benign
Growth in NCO and delinquencies since FY20-FY22 is skewed due to coming off of forbearance, lower rates, can help total figures in coming quarters


US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

United States

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. is the holding company for The Frost National Bank. The Bank provides commercial banking, consumer services, investment banking, international banking, trust services, correspondent banking, discount brokerage, and insurance services through a network of offices in Texas.

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Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR US)

US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

HFD for US banks, shows very strong acceleration in C&I loans, and also other loans, which will also include C&I. Data suggests good economic...

Daniel Tabbush

US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

US large banks are seeing loan growth decelerating, cash rising, large time deposits up 109% YoY in most recent week. Weekly B/S data suggests net...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Accelerating Further at 5.22% YoY, Highest Pace in 2 Years

New weekly data from the Fed shows loans accelerating for US banks and with loan loss reserves still stable, suggesting strong credit market, overall.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

High frequency data from Fed on commercial paper and balance sheets is positive. Loans are accelerating to 5% YoY and CP is at 19% YoY, with LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Quarterly NCO Rate in 2Q25 -4.7% QoQ, Delinquency Rates -1.9% QoQ

Fed quarterly data on NCO and delinquencies, does not suggest any systemic malaise in credit markets. Will be interesting to see how data changes...

Daniel Tabbush

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