Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks</li>
<li>C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's</li>
<li>Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24</li>
</ul>


Strong weekly data from the CP market and from granular loan data of US banks
C&amp;I type lending is also included in the CP market and other loans to FI's
Loans to other FI's is up 21% YoY and C&amp;I lending, reached a new high since early FY24


US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. </li>
<li>Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.</li>
<li>Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April</li>
</ul>


In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. 
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April


US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

<ul>
<li>The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit </li>
<li>This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders </li>
<li>The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health</li>
</ul>


The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit 
This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders 
The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health


US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

<ul>
<li>A commercial &amp; industrial (C&amp;I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed</li>
<li>Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&amp;I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ. </li>
<li>The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ. </li>
</ul>


A commercial &amp; industrial (C&amp;I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed
Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&amp;I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ. 
The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ. 


US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

<ul>
<li>While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions</li>
<li>Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April </li>
<li>It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI's, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core</li>
</ul>


While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions
Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April 
It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI's, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core


US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

United States

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. is the holding company for The Frost National Bank. The Bank provides commercial banking, consumer services, investment banking, international banking, trust services, correspondent banking, discount brokerage, and insurance services through a network of offices in Texas.

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Cullen/Frost Bankers (CFR US)

US Banks - Granular Weekly Data Suggest C&I Is Robust, Underlying Economy, Credit Metrics

There is good new high-frequency data from US banks and the Commercial Paper market suggesting a strong underlying economy for core C&I credit.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

There is granular data from Fed showing that loans to nonbank FI's will include CLOs and private credit. This means that C&I lending is stronger...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

Off balance sheet data for US banks shows C&I loan commitments down a lot in 4Q24, the most recent comparable period was in early FY20. This can be...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loans to Other FI's and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

US banks are seeing most of their loan growth to FI's rather than to the core economy which is not positive. Bank earnings can still be good, but...

Daniel Tabbush

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