Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Some stocks are expected to be inclusions to global indices later this month while others are potential <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> and/or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> changes in March.</li>
<li>On average, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the downward migrating stocks by close to 100% over the last 8 months. The passive flow can be used as an exit.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 14 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
Some stocks are expected to be inclusions to global indices later this month while others are potential NIFTY Index and/or Nifty Next 50 Index changes in March.
On average, the upward migrating stocks have outperformed the downward migrating stocks by close to 100% over the last 8 months. The passive flow can be used as an exit.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 3.5% YoY was slow but in line with expectations</li><li>Volume growth was at 2% (HSIE 3%) and sustained a four-year CAGR at &lt;3%</li><li>Rural recovery has been slow despite price cuts and overall softening in the inflation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 3.5% YoY was slow but in line with expectationsVolume growth was at 2% (HSIE 3%) and sustained a four-year CAGR at &lt;3%Rural recovery has been slow despite price cuts and overall softening in the inflationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, ITC, UltraTech Cement

<ul><li>The big news is that not much has changed in the past few months</li><li>Most of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows, the supply-side factors remain favourable, supporting operational resilience despite soft growth</li><li>In Q2FY24, the IT sector is expected to deliver a soft quarter, although Q2 has historically been a seasonally strong quarter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The big news is that not much has changed in the past few monthsMost of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows, the supply-side factors remain favourable, supporting operational resilience despite soft growthIn Q2FY24, the IT sector is expected to deliver a soft quarter, although Q2 has historically been a seasonally strong quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Accenture reported strong Q4FY23 results, below street expectations on all financial and operational terms. Revenue for the quarter stood at $15.98 Bn, registering a growth of 3.6% YoY.</li><li>It registered GAAP EPS of $2.15 for the quarter while adjusted EPS stood at $2.71 reporting 9% YoY growth.</li><li>The company bagged new bookings at the $16.6 Bn, up 1% YoY. Managed Services book/bill was at 1.05x. Q4FY23 bookings are lower than the typical seasonal strength in Q4. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Accenture reported strong Q4FY23 results, below street expectations on all financial and operational terms. Revenue for the quarter stood at $15.98 Bn, registering a growth of 3.6% YoY.It registered GAAP EPS of $2.15 for the quarter while adjusted EPS stood at $2.71 reporting 9% YoY growth.The company bagged new bookings at the $16.6 Bn, up 1% YoY. Managed Services book/bill was at 1.05x. Q4FY23 bookings are lower than the typical seasonal strength in Q4. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Accenture - Skeptical Outlook For FY24; FY 25 May See a Strong Recovery

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

India

Cyient Limited provides engineering services, data analytics, and data, networks and operations solutions. The Company offers its services to the aerospace and defense, energy, heavy machinery, consumer, medical utility, communications, semiconductor, and transportation industries around the world.

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Cyient Ltd (CYL IN)

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): HUGE Outperformance as Active and Passive Meet

We see 43 stocks migrating between different market cap segments in Jan. A lot of stocks will have passive flows from NIFTY, NIFTYJR and global...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, ITC, UltraTech Cement

Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 3.5% YoY was slow but in line with expectations. Volume growth was at 2% (HSIE 3%) and sustained a four...

HDFC Securities

IT Sector - Soft Q2, Status Quo Remains

Most of the demand indicators are trailing 10-15% below levels at the beginning of the year and only slightly better than the July lows

HDFC Securities

Accenture - Skeptical Outlook For FY24; FY 25 May See a Strong Recovery

Accenture reported strong Q4FY23 results, below street expectations on all financial and operational terms. Revenue for the quarter stood at $15.98...

Axis Direct

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

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