Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Hyundai Engineering   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd is EV of 3.3 trillion won, implied market cap of 5.4 trillion won, and target price of 67,475 won per share. </li>
<li>This is within the IPO price range of 57,900 won and 75,700 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this IPO.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on 6.3x EV/EBITDA valuation multiple using 2022 estimated EBITDA of 526 billion won.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd is EV of 3.3 trillion won, implied market cap of 5.4 trillion won, and target price of 67,475 won per share. 
This is within the IPO price range of 57,900 won and 75,700 won per share. Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this IPO.
Our base case valuation is based on 6.3x EV/EBITDA valuation multiple using 2022 estimated EBITDA of 526 billion won.


Hyundai Engineering IPO Valuation Analysis

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33008:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS)</a> is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Korea IPO.</li>
<li>Whilst the firm has a relatively high concentration of international orders in its backlog, 40% in 9M21, it has been on the down trend since 2016.</li>
<li>In this note, we discuss peer comparison, our assumptions and valuation against domestic and international peers.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS) is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Korea IPO.
Whilst the firm has a relatively high concentration of international orders in its backlog, 40% in 9M21, it has been on the down trend since 2016.
In this note, we discuss peer comparison, our assumptions and valuation against domestic and international peers.


Hyundai Engineering Pre-IPO - Unjustifiable Premium to Most Domestic Peers

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>2021 has been a leapfrog year in terms of both major outbound and inbound M&amp;As in Korea.</li>
<li>Two of the biggest M&amp;A deals in 2021 include SK Hynix's acquisition of Intel's flash NAND and SSD business and Emart's purchase of Ebay Korea for $3 billion. </li>
<li>Some of the largest M&amp;A deals which could get completed in 2022 include Hanon Systems, Bodyfriend, Modern House, Hyundai LNG Shipping, and EMK.  </li>
</ul>


2021 has been a leapfrog year in terms of both major outbound and inbound M&amp;As in Korea.
Two of the biggest M&amp;A deals in 2021 include SK Hynix's acquisition of Intel's flash NAND and SSD business and Emart's purchase of Ebay Korea for $3 billion. 
Some of the largest M&amp;A deals which could get completed in 2022 include Hanon Systems, Bodyfriend, Modern House, Hyundai LNG Shipping, and EMK.  


Korea M&A Recap in 2021 - A Leapfrog Year

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The success of this IPO depends on whether Hyundai Engineering can present a growth story that can justify a valuation premium of up to twice that of the local peers.</li>
<li>Of course, Hyundai Engineering is indeed in an advantageous position compared to the local competitors because it can present synergies with Hyundai Motor Group affiliates.</li>
<li>However, it depends on how specific a picture of financial growth is presented, which will be a significant challenge for Hyundai Engineering as well.</li>
</ul>


The success of this IPO depends on whether Hyundai Engineering can present a growth story that can justify a valuation premium of up to twice that of the local peers.
Of course, Hyundai Engineering is indeed in an advantageous position compared to the local competitors because it can present synergies with Hyundai Motor Group affiliates.
However, it depends on how specific a picture of financial growth is presented, which will be a significant challenge for Hyundai Engineering as well.


Hyundai Engineering IPO: Offering Details, Valuation Issues, & Index Fast Entry

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

South Korea

Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd. is a general engineering constructor.  The Company's projects include architectural works, such as commercial buildings, public facilities, schools, hospitals, and civil works, such as highways, ports, tunnels, railways, and dams.  Daewoo Engineering & Construction also constructs power plants, and residential buildings.

Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040 KS)

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Daewoo Engineering & Construction (047040 KS)

Hyundai Engineering IPO Valuation Analysis

Our target price of Hyundai Engineering Co is 67,475 won per share which is within the IPO price range of 57,900 won and 75,700 won. Given the lack...

Douglas Kim

Hyundai Engineering Pre-IPO - Unjustifiable Premium to Most Domestic Peers

Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS) is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming Korea IPO. In this note, we discuss peer comparison, our...

Clarence Chu

Korea M&A Recap in 2021 - A Leapfrog Year

2021 has been a leapfrog year in terms of major M&As in Korea. Some of the largest M&A deals in 2022 could include Hanon Systems, Bodyfriend,...

Douglas Kim

Hyundai Engineering IPO: Offering Details, Valuation Issues, & Index Fast Entry

Hyundai Engineering, another big fish in Korea's local IPO market, put out its listing prospectus. The company offers 16M shares, representing...

Sanghyun Park

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

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