Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit</li>
<li>The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  </li>
<li>We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning </li>
</ul>


Domestic credit growth in Hong Kong weakened further in latest monthly release at -2.2% YoY. Weekly Centa City Leading Index grinds lower, a more HFD point relevant to credit
The acceleration in domestic credit growth in Indonesia is unique, where growth is up to +11.2% YoY in most recent month vs +5.2% YoY in the same month last year  
We remain concerned about credit metrics for HK's banks given contracting growth, worsening property, which is collateral. Many HK banks have done little in provisioning 


Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> announced a scheme privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
<li>Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from HSBC Holdings (5 HK) at HK$155, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price.  
Based on an estimated 2025 third dividend of HK$1.3 per share, the total consideration is HK$156.30 per share. The offer price is final.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.9%/6.2%.


Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace</li>
<li>LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.</li>
<li>Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.</li>
</ul>


There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace
LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.
Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.


HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

<ul>
<li>Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05</li>
<li>Deposits are overwhelming HK's banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series</li>
<li>Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels</li>
</ul>


Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05
Deposits are overwhelming HK's banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series
Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels


Hong Kong Banks - Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> stays listed if/when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly - manipulated (?) - at nosebleed valuations. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dah-sing-financial-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:589:1" rel="noopener">Dah Sing Financial (440 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata Group (AXIATA MK)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos</li>
<li>Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



GMO Internet (4784 JP) stays listed if/when GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly - manipulated (?) - at nosebleed valuations. 
Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

Hong Kong

Dah Sing Banking Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides personal banking, commercial banking, and treasury services.  The Group's operations are primarily based in Hong Kong.

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Dah Sing Banking (2356 HK)

Asia Credit - HK Weakens More, Indonesia, Taiwan Remain Strong, and Improving

Domestic credit growth HFD shows weakening figures in Hong Kong, far better figures and strong in Indonesia, and still strong, rising in Taiwan....

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK): HSBC (5 HK)’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the current price and for a late March payment, the gross...

Arun George

HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

New data on LDR, shows further contraction. This is partly driven by accelerating USD deposit growth at +20.5% YoY for July.

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Banks - Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

Bank of East Asia 1H25 release shows considerable worsening in CRE in Hong Kong and in Mainland China. Its credit metrics in Macau, are also...

Daniel Tabbush

StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid

The trade is simple - avoid GMO Internet (4784 JP). Or take down borrow, where possible, for the persistent few who are up to the challenge.

David Blennerhassett

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