Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is a sharp and accelerating rise in deposits with Hong Kong's banks, likely from Mainland China in part</li>
<li>There is no offsetting lending volume, where loan growth remains still negative, not a positive combination for net interest income</li>
<li>The LDR for Hong Kong's banks is fast approaching the distressed levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)</li>
</ul>


There is a sharp and accelerating rise in deposits with Hong Kong's banks, likely from Mainland China in part
There is no offsetting lending volume, where loan growth remains still negative, not a positive combination for net interest income
The LDR for Hong Kong's banks is fast approaching the distressed levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)


HK Banks - Surging Deposits and Contracting Loans, Sees LDR Fall Toward GFC Levels

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-financial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9760:1" rel="noopener">Public Financial (626 HK)</a> announced a scheme privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-bank-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:583:1" rel="noopener">Public Bank (PBK MK)</a> at HK$2.50 per share, a 61.3% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The offer is well below book value (P/B of 0.35x) and light compared to peer multiples. However, it is an attractive exit as it represents a 10-year high. </li>
<li>The vote is low-risk, as the high takeover premium will appeal to minorities given the near-term cash certainty compared to remaining a minority holder in an illiquid, 73%-controlled stock. </li>
</ul>



Public Financial (626 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from Public Bank (PBK MK) at HK$2.50 per share, a 61.3% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
The offer is well below book value (P/B of 0.35x) and light compared to peer multiples. However, it is an attractive exit as it represents a 10-year high. 
The vote is low-risk, as the high takeover premium will appeal to minorities given the near-term cash certainty compared to remaining a minority holder in an illiquid, 73%-controlled stock. 


Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Public Bank’s Scheme Offer at HK$2.50

<ul>
<li>There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. </li>
<li>Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. </li>
</ul>


There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. 
Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. 
Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. 


BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-financial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9760:1" rel="noopener">Public Financial (626 HK)</a> has entered a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” </li>
<li>It is likely that the controlling shareholder (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-bank-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:583:1" rel="noopener">Public Bank (PBK MK)</a>), representing 73.23% of the outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. </li>
<li>While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test necessitates a reasonable offer. I estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.20-2.80 (41.9%-80.6% premium to last close).</li>
</ul>



Public Financial (626 HK) has entered a trading halt “pending the issuance of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
It is likely that the controlling shareholder (Public Bank (PBK MK)), representing 73.23% of the outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. 
While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test necessitates a reasonable offer. I estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.20-2.80 (41.9%-80.6% premium to last close).


Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Privatisation Offer from Public Bank?

<ul>
<li>Notes to financial statements show rampant deterioration in credit metrics for both banks</li>
<li>BEA's write-offs in property development impaired loans rise by 4.1x in 1H23 vs FY22
</li>
<li>Overdue loans by &gt;1yr rose 277% HoH in 1H23 at Dah Sing, but it cut credit costs 48%
</li>
</ul>


Notes to financial statements show rampant deterioration in credit metrics for both banks
BEA's write-offs in property development impaired loans rise by 4.1x in 1H23 vs FY22

Overdue loans by &gt;1yr rose 277% HoH in 1H23 at Dah Sing, but it cut credit costs 48%



BEA & Dah Sing - Rampant Deterioration in HK Credit Metrics, Not Totally Visible in Headline Results

Hong Kong

Operates as an investment holding company, which provides banking, financial and other related services

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Dah Sing Banking (2356 HK)

HK Banks - Surging Deposits and Contracting Loans, Sees LDR Fall Toward GFC Levels

Hong Kong's banks are seeing surge in deposits, likely from Mainland China, but this is not accompanied by loan growth, where this is in...

Daniel Tabbush

Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Public Bank’s Scheme Offer at HK$2.50

The vote is low-risk, as the high takeover premium will appeal to minorities given the near-term cash certainty compared to remaining a minority...

Arun George

BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

BOC HK has seen credit costs flat line for some years, possibly making it appear as though this bank does not experience credit cycles. Long term...

Daniel Tabbush

Public Financial Holdings (626 HK): Privatisation Offer from Public Bank?

It is likely that Public Bank is seeking to launch a scheme offer. I estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.20-2.80 (41.9%-80.6% premium to last...

Arun George

BEA & Dah Sing - Rampant Deterioration in HK Credit Metrics, Not Totally Visible in Headline Results

Credit metrics worsening substantially at BEA and Dah Sing, and well beyond what is visible in headline figures. There are implications also for...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)