Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At end-January 2023 it became clear activist Elliott Management had set its sights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-nippon-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19388:1" rel="noopener">Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)</a>. The stock popped and people got bullish.</li>
<li>I warned about the "complicated" nature of gains going forward <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dai-nippon-printing-7912-activism-results-going-forward-are-complicated" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Three weeks later they announced details of including ¥100bn of buybacks per year for 3yrs. That's discussed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dai-nippon-printing-7912-whoop-there-it-is-100bn-buyback-in-a-year-300bn-in-3yrs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
<li>I rarely write bearishly about a huge buyback program but from next day open, over 1yr, total return has been 4.9%. Stage 2 starts 11 March with ¥50bn through end-Sep24. </li>
</ul>


At end-January 2023 it became clear activist Elliott Management had set its sights on Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP). The stock popped and people got bullish.
I warned about the "complicated" nature of gains going forward here. Three weeks later they announced details of including ¥100bn of buybacks per year for 3yrs. That's discussed here.
I rarely write bearishly about a huge buyback program but from next day open, over 1yr, total return has been 4.9%. Stage 2 starts 11 March with ¥50bn through end-Sep24. 


Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) - Whoomp There It Is! Part Deux

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Dai Nippon Printing’s announcement that it would double its RoE target in its next MTP was a pleasant surprise. </li>
<li>Together with saucy hints that future buybacks could be the biggest in its history this has propelled the stock to a post-2007 high. </li>
<li>We think Elliott has found an easy win here and consider this likely to end as a standout success for activism in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Dai Nippon Printing’s announcement that it would double its RoE target in its next MTP was a pleasant surprise. 
Together with saucy hints that future buybacks could be the biggest in its history this has propelled the stock to a post-2007 high. 
We think Elliott has found an easy win here and consider this likely to end as a standout success for activism in Japan.


Dai Nippon Printing – Activism On Easy Street

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toppan-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11875:1" rel="noopener">Toppan Printing (7911 JP)</a> established a new <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/7911/tdnet/2283187/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Medium-Term Management Plan</a> with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR &gt;1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!</li>
<li>They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. </li>
<li>Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.</li>
</ul>



Toppan Printing (7911 JP) established a new Medium-Term Management Plan with targets in May 2023. 8% ROE, PBR &gt;1.0x. More DX business. More management modernisation. More ESG. Mooooarrrrr!
They also promised capital measures: ¥100bn of buybacks over three years. Total shareholder return of 50%+ over three years. More progress in selling down cross-holdings. 
Today the company reported better-than expected full-year revenues, OP, and Net Profit, added more to the buybacks, and shortened the buyback period to two years. Details matter.


Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Japan

DAI NIPPON PRINTING CO., LTD. offers printing services for commercial and industrial use.  The printing items include information media such as books, periodicals, and text books, wrapping paper and containers, stationeries, and advertising medium.  The Company provides design and production services as well.  Dai Nippon Printing also produces soft drinks including Coca Cola.

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Dai Nippon Printing (7912 JP)

Dai-Nippon Printing (7912) - Whoomp There It Is! Part Deux

A year ago, DNP promised ¥300bn of buybacks over 3yrs. They did ¥100bn in 1yr. Now they've announced ¥50bn for the next 6mos. But there is a lot of...

Travis Lundy

Dai Nippon Printing – Activism On Easy Street

Elliott's investment in Dai Nippon Printing looks to us like an excellent selection for its high probability of success and the trade is already...

Mio Kato

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Toppan Printing (7911) Accelerates Buyback Pace and Amount; But Crossholder Sales Lurk

Toppan had good earnings from securities sales. OP should rise this year. Good. They upped the buyback amount and pace, dramatically. Also good....

Travis Lundy

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy

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