Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on earth capable of building a full-scale LNG liquefaction plant, alongside Bechtel, Technip Energies, and Japanese peer JGC Holdings.</li><li>Two of its own joint-venture partners on its largest US LNG projects, McDermott International and Zachry Holdings, went bankrupt attempting the same work, thinning an already tiny global competitive set just as a fresh ~$90B wave of global LNG projects arrives.</li><li>Chiyoda itself nearly went the same way twice, with a ¥214.9B net loss in FY2019 and a second solvency scare in FY2024, both triggered by cost blowouts on the same Golden Pass LNG project in Texas, and was kept alive only because controlling shareholder Mitsubishi Corp injected preferred-stock capital both times.</li></ul>

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on earth capable of building a full-scale LNG liquefaction plant, alongside Bechtel, Technip Energies, and Japanese peer JGC Holdings.Two of its own joint-venture partners on its largest US LNG projects, McDermott International and Zachry Holdings, went bankrupt attempting the same work, thinning an already tiny global competitive set just as a fresh ~$90B wave of global LNG projects arrives.Chiyoda itself nearly went the same way twice, with a ¥214.9B net loss in FY2019 and a second solvency scare in FY2024, both triggered by cost blowouts on the same Golden Pass LNG project in Texas, and was kept alive only because controlling shareholder Mitsubishi Corp injected preferred-stock capital both times.

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.</li>
<li>This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.</li>
<li>We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.</li>
</ul>


In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.
This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.
We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.


Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> revenue was up 20% YoY to ¥129.5B in Q1FY27 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 35% YoY to ¥94.3B).</li>
<li>Orgovyx (revenue jumped 58% YoY to ¥51.6B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 42% to ¥30.2B) improved market share through clinical differentiation.</li>
<li>Company reiterated FY27 guidance. Core drugs will hold fort and eventually Enzomenib &amp; Amchepry is expected to follow suit in near to medium term.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) revenue was up 20% YoY to ¥129.5B in Q1FY27 on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 35% YoY to ¥94.3B).
Orgovyx (revenue jumped 58% YoY to ¥51.6B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 42% to ¥30.2B) improved market share through clinical differentiation.
Company reiterated FY27 guidance. Core drugs will hold fort and eventually Enzomenib &amp; Amchepry is expected to follow suit in near to medium term.


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nippon Steel, Kioxia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nippon Steel, Kioxia.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jul): Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Kioxia

Japan

Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)

Monday Delight: 03/08/2026

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on...

Contrarian Cashflows

Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

As Yen is recovering from its multi-year lows against Dollar this year, export-oriented healthcare companies are expected to significantly...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jul): Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Kioxia

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monday Delight: 03/08/2026

Chiyoda Corporation is a Yokohama-based engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor and one of only a handful of companies on...

Contrarian Cashflows

Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

As Yen is recovering from its multi-year lows against Dollar this year, export-oriented healthcare companies are expected to significantly...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): North America Continue To Be Robust in Q1FY27, Enzomenib Progressing Well

​Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jul): Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Kioxia

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Jul 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Recruit, Japan Exchange, Panasonic, Idemitsu Kosan, Mitsubishi UFJ...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Sumitomo Pharma's Q1FY27 revenue rose 20% YoY to ¥129.5B, driven by strong sales in North America. Orgovyx and Gemtesa saw significant revenue...