Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> witnessed 5% revenue growth in 9M25, despite negative Fx impact. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+6.5% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti and Abilify remained strong.</li>
<li>Otsuka has revised 2025 guidance upwards on the back of steady progress in Pharma and Nutraceutical business. Overall, 2025 revenue is now expected to be ¥2420B (previous guidance ~ ¥2380B).</li>
<li>Otsuka’s two top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction, mainly in the U.S. Going ahead, the company is banking on new drugs like sibeprenlimab to further drive growth.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) witnessed 5% revenue growth in 9M25, despite negative Fx impact. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+6.5% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti and Abilify remained strong.
Otsuka has revised 2025 guidance upwards on the back of steady progress in Pharma and Nutraceutical business. Overall, 2025 revenue is now expected to be ¥2420B (previous guidance ~ ¥2380B).
Otsuka’s two top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction, mainly in the U.S. Going ahead, the company is banking on new drugs like sibeprenlimab to further drive growth.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti, Abilify Drive 2025 Guidance Upward, All Eyes on Sibeprenlimab

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported H1FY26 revenue of ¥2,220B, down 7%, primarily attributable to unfavorable foreign exchange and lower sales of Vyvanse.</li>
<li>Takeda revised its FY26 guidance downwards expecting lower sales and margins, reflecting near term headwinds amid cost control.</li>
<li>Six of these late-stage programs are estimated to have the potential to generate peak revenues ranging from $10B to $20B in total and contribute to long-term growth.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported H1FY26 revenue of ¥2,220B, down 7%, primarily attributable to unfavorable foreign exchange and lower sales of Vyvanse.
Takeda revised its FY26 guidance downwards expecting lower sales and margins, reflecting near term headwinds amid cost control.
Six of these late-stage programs are estimated to have the potential to generate peak revenues ranging from $10B to $20B in total and contribute to long-term growth.


Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Guidance Revised Downwards; Vyvance Continue To Be a Pain Point

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> announced better-than-expected H1FY26 result, with continued double-digit revenue growth, driven by key brands, and significant improvement in profitability being the key highlights.</li>
<li>Strategic brands, which recorded 43% YoY revenue growth and contributed 21% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth. Cost optimization through SMT led to margin improvement.</li>
<li>Astellas has raised FY26 revenue and profit guidance. The company expects FY26 revenue of ¥2,030B (+6% YoY). FY26 core operating profit is expected to increase 25% YoY to ¥490B.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) announced better-than-expected H1FY26 result, with continued double-digit revenue growth, driven by key brands, and significant improvement in profitability being the key highlights.
Strategic brands, which recorded 43% YoY revenue growth and contributed 21% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth. Cost optimization through SMT led to margin improvement.
Astellas has raised FY26 revenue and profit guidance. The company expects FY26 revenue of ¥2,030B (+6% YoY). FY26 core operating profit is expected to increase 25% YoY to ¥490B.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strong H1FY26 Performance Leads to Upward Revision of FY26 Guidance

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of TOPIX CORE 30 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Hitachi, Softbank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of TOPIX CORE 30 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial, Hitachi, Softbank, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit.


TOPIX CORE 30 Index Earning Revision (Oct): Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

<ul>
<li>During H1FY26, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> maintained revenue, operating profit, and net profit at the same level as previous year. None of the key parameters achieved their respective targets.</li>
<li>Better-Than-Expected contribution from Torii, additional revenue generation from Quviviq, double-digit revenue growth of cefiderocol in the U.S. and EU, and stable growth in HIV royalty drove overall performance.</li>
<li>Shionogi has reduced FY26 revenue guidance (due to weak prescription drug sales) and raised operating and net profit guidance, driven by strong growth in royalty income and cost optimization initiatives.</li>
</ul>


During H1FY26, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) maintained revenue, operating profit, and net profit at the same level as previous year. None of the key parameters achieved their respective targets.
Better-Than-Expected contribution from Torii, additional revenue generation from Quviviq, double-digit revenue growth of cefiderocol in the U.S. and EU, and stable growth in HIV royalty drove overall performance.
Shionogi has reduced FY26 revenue guidance (due to weak prescription drug sales) and raised operating and net profit guidance, driven by strong growth in royalty income and cost optimization initiatives.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Muted 1H Result; Solid HIV Business Leads FY Profit Guidance Raise

Japan

Daiichi Sankyo Co, Ltd is a holding company established through merger of Sankyo and Daiichi pharmaceutical. The Group manufactures pharmaceuticals for human/veterinary use and medical tools and equipment. It also researches and promotes products through related companies throughout the world. The Group also produces food, food additives, livestock feeds, and agrochemicals.

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Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti, Abilify Drive 2025 Guidance Upward, All Eyes on Sibeprenlimab

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) see 5% revenue growth in 9M25, driven by pharmaceutical business. Revised 2025 guidance on Rexulti and Abilify. New...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Guidance Revised Downwards; Vyvance Continue To Be a Pain Point

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports revenue decline in H1FY26, revises guidance downwards due to lower sales of Vyvance and Entyvio, but expects long...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strong H1FY26 Performance Leads to Upward Revision of FY26 Guidance

Astellas Pharma reports strong H1FY26 results with double-digit revenue growth and improved profitability. The company raised FY26 revenue and...

Tina Banerjee

TOPIX CORE 30 Index Earning Revision (Oct): Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

We analyzed TOPIX CORE 30's consensus for Oct 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Recruit (6098 JP), Hitachi (6501 JP), Sony Financial (8729...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Muted 1H Result; Solid HIV Business Leads FY Profit Guidance Raise

Shionogi reported flat revenue and profits in H1FY26, missing targets. The company has lowered FY26 revenue guidance, but raised operating and net...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Rexulti, Abilify Drive 2025 Guidance Upward, All Eyes on Sibeprenlimab

​Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) see 5% revenue growth in 9M25, driven by pharmaceutical business. Revised 2025 guidance on Rexulti and Abilify. New...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Guidance Revised Downwards; Vyvance Continue To Be a Pain Point

​Takeda Pharmaceutical reports revenue decline in H1FY26, revises guidance downwards due to lower sales of Vyvance and Entyvio, but expects long...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strong H1FY26 Performance Leads to Upward Revision of FY26 Guidance

​Astellas Pharma reports strong H1FY26 results with double-digit revenue growth and improved profitability. The company raised FY26 revenue and...

Tina Banerjee

TOPIX CORE 30 Index Earning Revision (Oct): Recruit, Hitachi, Sony Financial, Toyota Motor, SoftBank

We analyzed TOPIX CORE 30's consensus for Oct 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Recruit (6098 JP), Hitachi (6501 JP), Sony Financial (8729...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Muted 1H Result; Solid HIV Business Leads FY Profit Guidance Raise

​Shionogi reported flat revenue and profits in H1FY26, missing targets. The company has lowered FY26 revenue guidance, but raised operating and net...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) see 5% revenue growth in 9M25, driven by pharmaceutical business. Revised 2025 guidance on Rexulti and Abilify. New...

Takeda Pharmaceutical reports revenue decline in H1FY26, revises guidance downwards due to lower sales of Vyvance and Entyvio, but expects long...

Astellas Pharma reports strong H1FY26 results with double-digit revenue growth and improved profitability. The company raised FY26 revenue and...

Shionogi reported flat revenue and profits in H1FY26, missing targets. The company has lowered FY26 revenue guidance, but raised operating and net...