Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.</li>
<li>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.</li>
<li>Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-January 2023.</li>
</ul>


JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-January 2023.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>Last evening post market close, the results of the JPX Nikkei 400 review were announced. There are 41 inclusions and 40 deletions to bring the number of constituents back to 400 and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 August.</p><p>This is the list of inclusions and exclusions.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 396.578px;"><h3>Inclusions</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 349.422px;"><h3>Exclusions</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">1417.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Mirait Holdings Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">1333.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Maruha Nichiro Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">1942.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Kandenko Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">2222.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Kotobuki Spirits Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">1973.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">NEC Networks &amp; System Integration Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">3086.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">J.Front Retailing Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">2281.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Prima Meat Packers Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">3197.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Skylark Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">3244.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Samty Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">4185.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">JSR Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">3254.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Pressance Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">4189.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">KH Neochem Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">3880.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Daio Paper Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">4324.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Dentsu Group Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">3923.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Rakus Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">4530.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">3941.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Rengo Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">4666.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Park24 Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">4205.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Zeon Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">4755.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Rakuten Group Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">4552.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">JCR Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">5401.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Nippon Steel Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">4553.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Towa Pharmaceutical Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">5411.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">JFE Holdings Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">4587.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">PeptiDream Inc</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">5801.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Furukawa Electric Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">4812.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Information Services International-Dentsu Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">6481.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">THK Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">4848.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Fullcast Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">6588.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Toshiba Tec Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">4901.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Fujifilm Holdings Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">6753.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Sharp Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">5706.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">6770.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Alps Alpine Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">6055.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Japan Material Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">6877.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Obara Group Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">6183.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">BELLSYSTEM24 Holdings Inc</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">7261.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Mazda Motor Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">6235.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Optorun Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">7458.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Daiichikosho Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">6361.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Ebara Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">7731.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Nikon Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">6544.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Japan Elevator Service Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">7751.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Canon Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">6727.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Wacom Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">8267.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Aeon Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">7177.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">GMO Financial Holdings Inc</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9001.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Tobu Railway Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">7516.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Kohnan Shoji Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9003.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Sotetsu Holdings Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">7947.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">FP Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9005.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Tokyu Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">8194.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Life Corp</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9007.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Odakyu Electric Railway Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">8425.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Mizuho Leasing Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9008.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Keio Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">8595.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">JAFCO Group Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9009.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Keisei Electric Railway Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">8892.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Es-con Japan Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9020.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">East Japan Railway Co</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">8919.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Katitas Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9021.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">West Japan Railway Co</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9069.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Senko Group Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9024.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Seibu Holdings Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9090.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Maruwa Unyu Kikan Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9041.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Kintetsu Group Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9101.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Nippon Yusen KK</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9044.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Nankai Electric Railway Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9104.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9045.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Keihan Holdings Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9143.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">SG Holdings Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9048.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Nagoya Railroad Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9375.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Kintetsu World Express Inc</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9201.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Japan Airlines Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9418.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">USEN NEXT HOLDINGS Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9202.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">ANA Holdings Inc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9517.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">eREX Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9603.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">H.I.S. Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9519.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Renova Inc</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;">9706.T</td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;">Japan Airport Terminal Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 75.2969px;">9787.T</td>
<td style="width: 321.281px;">Aeon Delight Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 84.3281px;"></td>
<td style="width: 265.094px;"></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 8.16% and will result in a trade of JPY 468bn.</p><p>Among the inclusions, the largest impacts will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daio-paper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3211:1" rel="noopener">Daio Paper Corp (3880 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-leasing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12780:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Leasing Co (8425 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26070:1" rel="noopener">SG Holdings (9143 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katitas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26073:1" rel="noopener">Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-delight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16763:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Delight (9787 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-elevator-service-holdi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25910:1" rel="noopener">Japan Elevator Service Holdi (6544 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kandenko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3726:1" rel="noopener">Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/senko-group-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5287:1" rel="noopener">SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7703:1" rel="noopener">Fp Corp (7947 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prima-meat-packers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8035:1" rel="noopener">Prima Meat Packers (2281 JP)</a>.</p><p>Deletions with the largest impacts will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/odakyu-electric-railway-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5405:1" rel="noopener">Odakyu Electric Railway (9007 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nankai-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:633:1" rel="noopener">Nankai Electric Railway Co (9044 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keio-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1223:1" rel="noopener">Keio Corp (9008 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sotetsu-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20274:1" rel="noopener">Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tobu-railway-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15463:1" rel="noopener">Tobu Railway (9001 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3357:1" rel="noopener">Tokyu Corp (9005 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-tec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17697:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Tec (6588 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>.</p><p>There are changes proposed to the index, mainly on selection criteria for stocks and on qualitative criteria including appointment of independent outside directors and of female corporate directors.</p>

Last evening post market close, the results of the JPX Nikkei 400 review were announced. There are 41 inclusions and 40 deletions to bring the number of constituents back to 400 and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 August.This is the list of inclusions and exclusions.








Inclusions
Exclusions


1417.T
Mirait Holdings Corp
1333.T
Maruha Nichiro Corp


1942.T
Kandenko Co Ltd
2222.T
Kotobuki Spirits Co Ltd


1973.T
NEC Networks &amp; System Integration Corp
3086.T
J.Front Retailing Co Ltd


2281.T
Prima Meat Packers Ltd
3197.T
Skylark Holdings Co Ltd


3244.T
Samty Co Ltd
4185.T
JSR Corp


3254.T
Pressance Corp
4189.T
KH Neochem Co Ltd


3880.T
Daio Paper Corp
4324.T
Dentsu Group Inc


3923.T
Rakus Co Ltd
4530.T
Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co Inc


3941.T
Rengo Co Ltd
4666.T
Park24 Co Ltd


4205.T
Zeon Corp
4755.T
Rakuten Group Inc


4552.T
JCR Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd
5401.T
Nippon Steel Corp


4553.T
Towa Pharmaceutical Co Ltd
5411.T
JFE Holdings Inc


4587.T
PeptiDream Inc
5801.T
Furukawa Electric Co Ltd


4812.T
Information Services International-Dentsu Ltd
6481.T
THK Co Ltd


4848.T
Fullcast Holdings Co Ltd
6588.T
Toshiba Tec Corp


4901.T
Fujifilm Holdings Corp
6753.T
Sharp Corp


5706.T
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co Ltd
6770.T
Alps Alpine Co Ltd


6055.T
Japan Material Co Ltd
6877.T
Obara Group Inc


6183.T
BELLSYSTEM24 Holdings Inc
7261.T
Mazda Motor Corp


6235.T
Optorun Co Ltd
7458.T
Daiichikosho Co Ltd


6361.T
Ebara Corp
7731.T
Nikon Corp


6544.T
Japan Elevator Service Holdings Co Ltd
7751.T
Canon Inc


6727.T
Wacom Co Ltd
8267.T
Aeon Co Ltd


7177.T
GMO Financial Holdings Inc
9001.T
Tobu Railway Co Ltd


7516.T
Kohnan Shoji Co Ltd
9003.T
Sotetsu Holdings Inc


7947.T
FP Corp
9005.T
Tokyu Corp


8194.T
Life Corp
9007.T
Odakyu Electric Railway Co Ltd


8425.T
Mizuho Leasing Co Ltd
9008.T
Keio Corp


8595.T
JAFCO Group Co Ltd
9009.T
Keisei Electric Railway Co Ltd


8892.T
Es-con Japan Ltd
9020.T
East Japan Railway Co


8919.T
Katitas Co Ltd
9021.T
West Japan Railway Co


9069.T
Senko Group Holdings Co Ltd
9024.T
Seibu Holdings Inc


9090.T
Maruwa Unyu Kikan Co Ltd
9041.T
Kintetsu Group Holdings Co Ltd


9101.T
Nippon Yusen KK
9044.T
Nankai Electric Railway Co Ltd


9104.T
Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd
9045.T
Keihan Holdings Co Ltd


9143.T
SG Holdings Co Ltd
9048.T
Nagoya Railroad Co Ltd


9375.T
Kintetsu World Express Inc
9201.T
Japan Airlines Co Ltd


9418.T
USEN NEXT HOLDINGS Co Ltd
9202.T
ANA Holdings Inc


9517.T
eREX Co Ltd
9603.T
H.I.S. Co Ltd


9519.T
Renova Inc
9706.T
Japan Airport Terminal Co Ltd


9787.T
Aeon Delight Co Ltd




Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 8.16% and will result in a trade of JPY 468bn.Among the inclusions, the largest impacts will be on Daio Paper Corp (3880 JP), Mizuho Leasing Co (8425 JP), SG Holdings (9143 JP), Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP), Aeon Delight (9787 JP), Japan Elevator Service Holdi (6544 JP), Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP), SENKO Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (9069 JP), Fp Corp (7947 JP) and Prima Meat Packers (2281 JP).Deletions with the largest impacts will be Odakyu Electric Railway (9007 JP), Nankai Electric Railway Co (9044 JP), Keio Corp (9008 JP), Sotetsu Holdings (9003 JP), Tobu Railway (9001 JP), Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), Tokyu Corp (9005 JP), Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP), Toshiba Tec (6588 JP) and Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP).There are changes proposed to the index, mainly on selection criteria for stocks and on qualitative criteria including appointment of independent outside directors and of female corporate directors.

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Big Turnover, Big Impact & A Market Consultation

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/977/original/2020-03-09_14-29-36.png?1583731808" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121977"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Stoxx.com</div><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>ALTMAN'S Z-SCORE</strong> - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy which built on the work of William Beaver and R.A. Fisher. Altman's original article (attached below) was published in the September 1968 issue of the Journal of Finance when he was an assistant professor of finance at NYU Stern.  The 'classic' Z-Score sampled publically-traded manufacturing companies. Later versions were formulated for private companies, non-manufacturing companies and emerging markets.  The model is between 80% and 90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year ahead of the event, while the rate of false positives has been between 15% and 20%.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>APPLICATION TO JAPAN</strong> - We have been using Altman Z-Scores in Japan since the mid-1980s. We have found the Scores to be reasonably predictive, as has been confirmed by several academic papers, including  <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-Model-of-Bankruptcy-Prediction%3A-Calibration-of/5565168f75b578ba28115ef314acbdd387f82483" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gurau (2013)</a>. The persistence of a large number of 'zombie' companies supported by banks or keiretsu 'relatives' has, however, reduced the overall 'hit' rate for larger listed companies. The following charts show a timeline of the Altman Z-Score and Market Capitalisation for several memorable Japanese corporate bankruptcies. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/005/original/2020-03-09_15-53-11.png?1583736804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122005"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/006/original/2020-03-09_15-54-52.png?1583736903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122006"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/007/original/2020-03-09_15-56-58.png?1583737032" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122007"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/009/original/2020-03-09_15-59-08.png?1583737161" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122009"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/011/original/2020-03-09_16-03-28.png?1583737425" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122011"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight"><p>This Insight is the second part of a three-part series attempting to highlight those Japanese companies that at the highest risk from the 2020 <em>Covid-19 recession</em>. The first focused on the<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-1-audit-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37265" rel="noopener">Audit Score</a></strong>, while a forthcoming Insight will look at <strong>Cumulative Cash Flows.</strong></p></div>

Source • Stoxx.comALTMAN'S Z-SCORE - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy which built on the work of William Beaver and R.A. Fisher. Altman's original article (attached below) was published in the September 1968 issue of the Journal of Finance when he was an assistant professor of finance at NYU Stern.  The 'classic' Z-Score sampled publically-traded manufacturing companies. Later versions were formulated for private companies, non-manufacturing companies and emerging markets.  The model is between 80% and 90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year ahead of the event, while the rate of false positives has been between 15% and 20%.APPLICATION TO JAPAN - We have been using Altman Z-Scores in Japan since the mid-1980s. We have found the Scores to be reasonably predictive, as has been confirmed by several academic papers, including  Gurau (2013). The persistence of a large number of 'zombie' companies supported by banks or keiretsu 'relatives' has, however, reduced the overall 'hit' rate for larger listed companies. The following charts show a timeline of the Altman Z-Score and Market Capitalisation for several memorable Japanese corporate bankruptcies. Source • Japan AnalyticsThis Insight is the second part of a three-part series attempting to highlight those Japanese companies that at the highest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. The first focused on theAudit Score, while a forthcoming Insight will look at Cumulative Cash Flows.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 2: Altman Z-Score

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/814/original/naakt-jpg.png?1583659197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121814"></figure><p>Source  • <a href="https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/</a></p>
</div><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" target="_blank" aria-describedby="external-disclaimer" rel="noopener">“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “</a>- Warren Buffett</strong></p></blockquote><p><strong>WHO'S SWIMMING NAKED?</strong> - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 <em>Covid-19 recession</em>. We will focus on three factors - the<strong> Audit Score</strong>, the <strong>Altman Z-Score</strong> and <strong>Cumulative Cash Flows</strong> - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.</p><hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/877/original/2020-03-09_07-18-54.png?1583705968" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121877"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>PART 1: AUDIT SCORE</strong> - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an '<strong>Audit Score'</strong>. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> above.   </p>


Source  • https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.Source • Japan AnalyticsPART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) above.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Hokuetsu Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<p>On 21 February, paper manufacturer Hokuetsu Corporation announced that top shareholder Mitsubishi Corp would sell up 26.5m shares in a secondary offering, and that the company, to mitigate some of this impact, would repurchase up to 23m shares for a maximum of ¥14bn. The mechanics of the deal and the event angle have been covered thoroughly by Travis Lundy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/end-of-an-era-marked-by-hokuetsu-paper-buyback-and-offering" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. We spoke to the company this morning to try and ascertain what the fundamental value was and whether the offering could prove attractive. Our thoughts below.</p>

On 21 February, paper manufacturer Hokuetsu Corporation announced that top shareholder Mitsubishi Corp would sell up 26.5m shares in a secondary offering, and that the company, to mitigate some of this impact, would repurchase up to 23m shares for a maximum of ¥14bn. The mechanics of the deal and the event angle have been covered thoroughly by Travis Lundy here. We spoke to the company this morning to try and ascertain what the fundamental value was and whether the offering could prove attractive. Our thoughts below.

Hokuetsu – Uninspiring but There Is Some Value Here

Japan

Daio Paper Corporation is a paper, pulp, and paperboard manufacturer.  The Company produces general printing paper for magazines and catalogues, newsprint, office paper, corrugated materials, kraft liner, facial and toilet tissue, paper towels, and feminine hygiene products.  Daio Paper also produces adhesive papers.  The Company has operations in Japan, the United States, and Chile.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Daio Paper Corp (3880 JP)

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Jan 2023

There are 45 Potential ADDs and 42 Potential DELs presented in the current Leaderboard and I expect the Potential ADDs to outperform the Potential...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: Big Turnover, Big Impact & A Market Consultation

There are 41 adds and 40 deletes for the JPX NK 400 Index. One-way turnover is high at 8.16% and will result in a trade of JPY 468bn. There will be...

Brian Freitas

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 2: Altman Z-Score

ALTMAN'S Z-SCORE - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights...

Campbell Gunn

Hokuetsu – Uninspiring but There Is Some Value Here

On 21 February, paper manufacturer Hokuetsu Corporation announced that top shareholder Mitsubishi Corp would sell up 26.5m shares in a secondary...

Mio Kato

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)