Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat with an unchanged TP of INR 2,560/sh (13x its Sep-25E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>We continue to like Dalmia for its healthy volume, margin, and comfortable balance sheet outlook</li><li>In Q2FY24, Dalmia reported sub-par volume growth (+7% YoY) on market share loss in the east</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat with an unchanged TP of INR 2,560/sh (13x its Sep-25E consolidated EBITDA)We continue to like Dalmia for its healthy volume, margin, and comfortable balance sheet outlookIn Q2FY24, Dalmia reported sub-par volume growth (+7% YoY) on market share loss in the eastContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Dalmia Bharat, Karur Vysya Bank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>DBLreporteda mixed set of numbers during the quarterasits Volume/Revenue/APATgrew by 7%/6%/157% (below expectation) driven by better demand and lower cost.</li><li>EBITDA grew by 55% which was above our consensus expectation by 1% and 3% on account of lower cost,primarily power/fuel cost which was lower by 27% on a per tonne basis.</li><li>The company reported a profit of Rs 118 Cr against Rs 46 Cr in Q2FY23.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

DBLreporteda mixed set of numbers during the quarterasits Volume/Revenue/APATgrew by 7%/6%/157% (below expectation) driven by better demand and lower cost.EBITDA grew by 55% which was above our consensus expectation by 1% and 3% on account of lower cost,primarily power/fuel cost which was lower by 27% on a per tonne basis.The company reported a profit of Rs 118 Cr against Rs 46 Cr in Q2FY23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dalmia Bharat Limited - Better Operating Performance

<ul><li>Demand momentum remains robust: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver strong 12% YoY volume growth (four-year CAGR: 9%) in Q2FY24</li><li>On a QoQ basis, we estimate sales volume will reduce 11% on seasonal demand weakness</li><li>Aggregate utilisation should expand ~350bps YoY to 76%, in our view</li><li>We expect industry-leading volume offtake (13% and more) by UltraTech, Birla Corp, JK Cement, Ramco Cements, and Sagar Cement.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand momentum remains robust: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver strong 12% YoY volume growth (four-year CAGR: 9%) in Q2FY24On a QoQ basis, we estimate sales volume will reduce 11% on seasonal demand weaknessAggregate utilisation should expand ~350bps YoY to 76%, in our viewWe expect industry-leading volume offtake (13% and more) by UltraTech, Birla Corp, JK Cement, Ramco Cements, and Sagar Cement.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q2FY24 Results Preview): Robust demand for sixth consecutive quarter

<ul><li>Cement demand momentum continued in Q2FY24: Following robust volume growth in Q1FY24, cement demand momentum continued in Q2FY24, although Q2 is typically impacted by seasonal fluctuations due to the monsoon.</li><li>Demand momentum was primarily driven by government-led infrastructure and housing development, as well as encouraging real estate demand.</li><li>Demand momentum had slowed in Jul'23 due to monsoon rains, but strengthened in Aug’23 and continued in Sep’23, albeit with some moderation due to monsoon rains.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement demand momentum continued in Q2FY24: Following robust volume growth in Q1FY24, cement demand momentum continued in Q2FY24, although Q2 is typically impacted by seasonal fluctuations due to the monsoon.Demand momentum was primarily driven by government-led infrastructure and housing development, as well as encouraging real estate demand.Demand momentum had slowed in Jul'23 due to monsoon rains, but strengthened in Aug’23 and continued in Sep’23, albeit with some moderation due to monsoon rains.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Dalmia Bharat Limited holds cement and power businesses. The Company's interests include cement, power and refractory businesses.

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Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Dalmia Bharat, Karur Vysya Bank

Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat with an unchanged TP of INR 2,560/sh (13x its Sep-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

Dalmia Bharat Limited - Better Operating Performance

DBLreporteda mixed set of numbers during the quarterasits Volume/Revenue/APATgrew by 7%/6%/157% (below expectation) driven by better demand and...

Axis Direct

Cement (Q2FY24 Results Preview): Robust demand for sixth consecutive quarter

Demand momentum remains robust: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies will deliver strong 12% YoY volume growth (four-year CAGR: 9%) in...

HDFC Securities

Cement - Q2FY24 Earnings Preview

Following robust volume growth in Q1FY24, cement demand momentum continued in Q2FY24, although Q2 is typically impacted by seasonal fluctuations...

Axis Direct

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