HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Power International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a>'s earnings should accelerate in FY24, and rebound in hydropower is a key driver. Hydropower generation surged 84.3% YoY in 2M24.</li>
<li>The 9.3GW of capacity acquired in Oct will provide first full-year contribution in FY24. Better economics for coal-fired plants will add to profit momentum.</li>
<li>The 6pp increase in dividend payout signals management's positive view in the outlook, and the Chairman is explicitly confident in good FY24 profit growth. </li>
</ul>



China Power International (2380 HK)'s earnings should accelerate in FY24, and rebound in hydropower is a key driver. Hydropower generation surged 84.3% YoY in 2M24.
The 9.3GW of capacity acquired in Oct will provide first full-year contribution in FY24. Better economics for coal-fired plants will add to profit momentum.
The 6pp increase in dividend payout signals management's positive view in the outlook, and the Chairman is explicitly confident in good FY24 profit growth. 


China Power International (2380 HK): Powering Forward

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 124.6% as of Mar 22nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, utilities and offset by financials, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan, Hua Hong Semi.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 124.6% as of Mar 22nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, utilities and offset by financials, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan, Hua Hong Semi.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 22nd): ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.2% as of Mar 15th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.1ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, utilities, energy and offset by consumer staples, real estate, health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Air China, QHD Port, Datang Intl, Wuxi Apptec, PetroChina, CGN Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.2% as of Mar 15th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.1ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, utilities, energy and offset by consumer staples, real estate, health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Air China, QHD Port, Datang Intl, Wuxi Apptec, PetroChina, CGN Power.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 15th): Air China, QHD Port, Datang Intl, Wuxi Apptec, PetroChina, CGN Power

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> should see a mean reversion of its valuations. It has rebounded 36% from the the 2024 trough, but has only gone up 0.3% YTD.</li>
<li>There are three catalysts in place to drive the move: acceleration in power generation, cash flow improvement, and recovery in the wind power market.</li>
<li>Its P/B is at a 40% discount to average, and a return to such level will generate a 60% upside. Even after reversion, its PER of 7.8x is not stretched.</li>
</ul>



China Longyuan Power (916 HK) should see a mean reversion of its valuations. It has rebounded 36% from the the 2024 trough, but has only gone up 0.3% YTD.
There are three catalysts in place to drive the move: acceleration in power generation, cash flow improvement, and recovery in the wind power market.
Its P/B is at a 40% discount to average, and a return to such level will generate a 60% upside. Even after reversion, its PER of 7.8x is not stretched.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15548:1" rel="noopener">China Power International (2380 HK)</a>'s Jan power sales showed a sharp 41.2% YoY growth. More importantly, this marks sustaining a solid MoM trend in the last few months. </li>
<li>Recovery of the hydropower generation is encouraging as this was a drag last year. Meanwhile, higher coal-fired generation will capture the better profitability of this segment.</li>
<li>CPI's strongest earnings CAGR in the sector has made its earnings multiples increasingly cheap over the next two years. After +15.7% YTD in its share price, there is further upside.</li>
</ul>



China Power International (2380 HK)'s Jan power sales showed a sharp 41.2% YoY growth. More importantly, this marks sustaining a solid MoM trend in the last few months. 
Recovery of the hydropower generation is encouraging as this was a drag last year. Meanwhile, higher coal-fired generation will capture the better profitability of this segment.
CPI's strongest earnings CAGR in the sector has made its earnings multiples increasingly cheap over the next two years. After +15.7% YTD in its share price, there is further upside.


China Power International (2380 HK): We See More Upside

China

Datang International Power Generation Company Limited develops and operates power plants, sells electricity, repairs and maintains power equipment, and provides power-related technical services.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Datang International (991 HK)

China Power International (2380 HK): Powering Forward

China Power Intl is set for earnings acceleration in FY24, driven by rebounding hydropower generation and increased capacity acquisition, with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 22nd): ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 15th): Air China, QHD Port, Datang Intl, Wuxi Apptec, PetroChina, CGN Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Air China, QHD Port, Datang Intl, Wuxi Apptec, PetroChina,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Longyuan (916 HK): Mean Reversion

China Longyuan is poised for a valuation mean reversion with three catalysts: power generation acceleration, cash flow improvement, and wind power...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Power International (2380 HK): We See More Upside

CPI saw a strong 41.2% growth in Jan power sales, sustaining a solid MoM trend. Recovery in hydropower and higher coal-fired generation will boost...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Power International (2380 HK): Powering Forward

​China Power Intl is set for earnings acceleration in FY24, driven by rebounding hydropower generation and increased capacity acquisition, with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 22nd): ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai Fudan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for ZTE, CRCC Times Electric, Air China, Longyuan, Shanghai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 15th): Air China, QHD Port, Datang Intl, Wuxi Apptec, PetroChina, CGN Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Air China, QHD Port, Datang Intl, Wuxi Apptec, PetroChina,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Longyuan (916 HK): Mean Reversion

​China Longyuan is poised for a valuation mean reversion with three catalysts: power generation acceleration, cash flow improvement, and wind power...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Power International (2380 HK): We See More Upside

CPI saw a strong 41.2% growth in Jan power sales, sustaining a solid MoM trend. Recovery in hydropower and higher coal-fired generation will boost...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Power Intl is set for earnings acceleration in FY24, driven by rebounding hydropower generation and increased capacity acquisition, with...

China Longyuan is poised for a valuation mean reversion with three catalysts: power generation acceleration, cash flow improvement, and wind power...