Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

Chime Financial / Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Chime (launched 2012) found initial product-market fit marketing to millennials and the 75% of Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck with no-fee accounts and 2 days early access to their wages.</li><li>Chime can grow ARPU from the ~$30-$120 of a top interchange-based neobank to the $1,200 of a full-service consumer retail bank like a Bank of America and increase LTV by turning on additional features like crypto, investing, insurance, and most importantly, lending.</li><li>Chime’s lead gives it the chance to build the CNBC of finance superapps, positioned against Cash App’s meme-y, Wall Street Bets-adjacent finance superapp.</li></ul>

Chime (launched 2012) found initial product-market fit marketing to millennials and the 75% of Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck with no-fee accounts and 2 days early access to their wages.Chime can grow ARPU from the ~$30-$120 of a top interchange-based neobank to the $1,200 of a full-service consumer retail bank like a Bank of America and increase LTV by turning on additional features like crypto, investing, insurance, and most importantly, lending.Chime’s lead gives it the chance to build the CNBC of finance superapps, positioned against Cash App’s meme-y, Wall Street Bets-adjacent finance superapp.

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Varo bank published 4Q22 results that revealed lower quarterly cash burn through cost control, but revenue per client declined and the very high customer acquisition cost</li>
<li>SoFi’s cost reduction success in 4Q22 seems, in contrast to Varo, to have limited revenue loss, thereby bringing SoFi closer to breakeven; it trades at a premium to peers</li>
<li>These early 4Q22 results signals may provide some read across which we believe could be negative for Dave in particular, as well being a reality check for Inter’s US ambitions</li>
</ul>


Varo bank published 4Q22 results that revealed lower quarterly cash burn through cost control, but revenue per client declined and the very high customer acquisition cost
SoFi’s cost reduction success in 4Q22 seems, in contrast to Varo, to have limited revenue loss, thereby bringing SoFi closer to breakeven; it trades at a premium to peers
These early 4Q22 results signals may provide some read across which we believe could be negative for Dave in particular, as well being a reality check for Inter’s US ambitions


US Neobanks; Warning Signals from SoFi and Varo 4Q Results

<ul><li>As the revenues grew so much, I think you got these crazy valuations.</li><li>In the Chime world, there would be times where we would basically have to prioritize which thing to put in front of the bank first because there just weren’t enough resources to get them all done in time.</li><li>Chime is probably in a better position than most companies to handle a recession because they have a lot of cash flow and a lot of investor money and they haven&#39;t blown it all.</li></ul>

As the revenues grew so much, I think you got these crazy valuations.In the Chime world, there would be times where we would basically have to prioritize which thing to put in front of the bank first because there just weren’t enough resources to get them all done in time.Chime is probably in a better position than most companies to handle a recession because they have a lot of cash flow and a lot of investor money and they haven&#39;t blown it all.

Ex-Chime Employee On Chime's multi-product Future

<ul>
<li>Fintechs and neobanks suffered a valuations reality check in 2022, due to rising interest (and discount) rates, poor fundamental results coupled with - in certain cases - high cash burn</li>
<li>Most neobanks need to improve customer activity rates as well as product and revenue penetration; legacy banks are responding to disruptors and in developed markets megafintechs are encroaching on neobanks</li>
<li>We see 2023 neobank picks driven by bottom-up calls on focused execution; we turn constructive on Nubank, stay negative on Inter and Jago and neutral on Kakaobank and Banco PAN</li>
</ul>


Fintechs and neobanks suffered a valuations reality check in 2022, due to rising interest (and discount) rates, poor fundamental results coupled with - in certain cases - high cash burn
Most neobanks need to improve customer activity rates as well as product and revenue penetration; legacy banks are responding to disruptors and in developed markets megafintechs are encroaching on neobanks
We see 2023 neobank picks driven by bottom-up calls on focused execution; we turn constructive on Nubank, stay negative on Inter and Jago and neutral on Kakaobank and Banco PAN


EM and DM Neobanks in 2023; Selective Opportunity Driven by Bottom-Up Execution

Independent Research, SPACs, SPAC Track

SPAC Track

Independent Research, SPACs

Equity Capital Markets

Viveon Health Acquisition Co / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Suneva Medical Inc is in advanced talks to go public through a merger with blank-check company Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. (VHAQ)</li><li>Capstar Special Purpose Acquisition Corp. (CPSR -28.51%) shareholders approved its merger with Gelesis</li><li>Dave (DAVE) releases redemption results from its merger with VPC Impact Acquisition Holdings III, Inc. (VPCC)</li></ul>

Suneva Medical Inc is in advanced talks to go public through a merger with blank-check company Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. (VHAQ)Capstar Special Purpose Acquisition Corp. (CPSR -28.51%) shareholders approved its merger with GelesisDave (DAVE) releases redemption results from its merger with VPC Impact Acquisition Holdings III, Inc. (VPCC)

United States

Dave Inc. operates as a digital banking services company. The Company develops banking application to build products that level the financial playing field. Dave serves customers worldwide.

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Dave (DAVE US)

Chime: The $1.3B/year could-be Superapp

Chime (dataset) built the #1 neobank in the United States by focusing on lower-income consumers looking for early access to paychecks. Now, they...

Sacra

US Neobanks; Warning Signals from SoFi and Varo 4Q Results

Varo bank's 4Q results revealed lower quarterly cash burn through cost control, but revenue per client declined; SoFi seemed to have done a bit...

Victor Galliano

Ex-Chime Employee On Chime's multi-product Future

Sacra interview with an ex-Chime employee.

Sacra

EM and DM Neobanks in 2023; Selective Opportunity Driven by Bottom-Up Execution

Neobank shareholder success stories are rare, but Nubank combines high customer activation and revenue conversion, with low cost to acquire; we...

Victor Galliano

The Nightcap from SPAC Track

Suneva Medical Inc is in advanced talks to go public through a merger with blank-check company Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. (VHAQ)

SPAC Track

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