Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade</li>
<li>There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks</li>
<li>This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level</li>
</ul>


Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade
There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks
This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level


Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange (SGX SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> recently launched a new sustainability/ESG index – the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iedge-ocbc-singapore-low-carbon-select-50-capped-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35795:1" rel="noopener">IEdge-OCBC Singapore Low Carbon Select 50 Capped Index (SGLC50CN INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>Whilst country-Specific carbon indices are often too narrow for index-linked products, they are invaluable as carbon performance <em>benchmarks</em> for climate change mitigation and planning.</li>
<li>The iEdge-OCBC index, along with the broad-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iedge-singapore-low-carbon-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35793:1" rel="noopener">iEdge Singapore Low Carbon Index (SGLCN INDEX)</a>, consistently outperformed (backcast) comparable indices, often with lower volatility.</li>
</ul>



Singapore Exchange (SGX SP) and OCBC (OCBC SP) recently launched a new sustainability/ESG index – the IEdge-OCBC Singapore Low Carbon Select 50 Capped Index (SGLC50CN INDEX).
Whilst country-Specific carbon indices are often too narrow for index-linked products, they are invaluable as carbon performance benchmarks for climate change mitigation and planning.
The iEdge-OCBC index, along with the broad-based iEdge Singapore Low Carbon Index (SGLCN INDEX), consistently outperformed (backcast) comparable indices, often with lower volatility.


SGX's New Low Carbon Index Outperformed Comparable Indices and With Less Volatility

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing allocations.</li>
<li>Indonesia and Singapore are the largest country allocations, Indonesia/Vietnam the key overweights and Malaysia/Thailand the key underweights. Only 20.4% of managers have any Malaysia exposure at all.</li>
<li>Sea Ltd and Bank Central Asia are the key overweights in the region.  Recent activity has favoured Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Central Pattana Pub and Telekomunikasi Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing allocations.
Indonesia and Singapore are the largest country allocations, Indonesia/Vietnam the key overweights and Malaysia/Thailand the key underweights. Only 20.4% of managers have any Malaysia exposure at all.
Sea Ltd and Bank Central Asia are the key overweights in the region.  Recent activity has favoured Cisarua Mountain Dairy, Central Pattana Pub and Telekomunikasi Indonesia.


ASEAN Reversal.  Asia Ex-Japan Managers Raise Allocations

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.</li>
<li>Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.</li>
</ul>


Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.
Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.


Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Singapore is far less dependent on consumption than others in region</li>
<li>People can far better afford higher retail prices in Singapore vs Asean</li>
<li>Banks in Singapore can benefit from higher oil prices unlike others</li>
</ul>


Singapore is far less dependent on consumption than others in region
People can far better afford higher retail prices in Singapore vs Asean
Banks in Singapore can benefit from higher oil prices unlike others


Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

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DBS (DBS SP)

Standard Chartered - Nickel and Dimes

The surge in nickel prices and the wrong-way trade(s) will mean bank counter-party risk, with STAN being highlighted in reports. ROA risk can be...

Daniel Tabbush

SGX's New Low Carbon Index Outperformed Comparable Indices and With Less Volatility

SGX's new iEdge-OCBC Low Carbon index outperforms comparable indices, and with lower volatility – a testament to Singapore issuers' carbon...

Kyle Rudden

ASEAN Reversal. Asia Ex-Japan Managers Raise Allocations

As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing...

Steven Holden

Singapore Shines With Asean Inflation

Singapore is far less dependent on private consumption for its economic growth than other countries in ASEAN. As such, Singapore's economy can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Standard Chartered - Nickel and Dimes

The surge in nickel prices and the wrong-way trade(s) will mean bank counter-party risk, with STAN being highlighted in reports. ROA risk can be...

Daniel Tabbush

SGX's New Low Carbon Index Outperformed Comparable Indices and With Less Volatility

SGX's new iEdge-OCBC Low Carbon index outperforms comparable indices, and with lower volatility – a testament to Singapore issuers' carbon...

Kyle Rudden

ASEAN Reversal. Asia Ex-Japan Managers Raise Allocations

As concerns over China persist, Asia Ex-Japan managers are becoming more constructive on the ASEAN Region and appear amenable to increasing...

Steven Holden

Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released...

Sumeet Singh

Singapore Shines With Asean Inflation

Singapore is far less dependent on private consumption for its economic growth than other countries in ASEAN. As such, Singapore's economy can be...

Daniel Tabbush