Asian bank research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Asian bank research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world. </li>
<li>Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today's release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter. </li>
<li>If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too. </li>
</ul>


DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world. 
Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today's release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter. 
If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too. 


DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with ASEAN and ANZ after having looked at other regions earlier.</li>
<li>This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with ASEAN and ANZ after having looked at other regions earlier.
This list has been compiled on a best effort basis from tracking the company filings and through various other sources
The deals you see in this note are only a part of our full IPO pipeline tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information on these IPOs.


Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - ASEAN and ANZ

<ul>
<li>There is no refuting the strong net interest income figures at DBS, although it seems toppy</li>
<li>DBS took credit costs/assets at 4bps in 2Q23 vs 13bps average during FY18, FY19 quarterly</li>
<li>There are not many banks that we can turn too with over 50% QoQ decline in credit costs</li>
</ul>


There is no refuting the strong net interest income figures at DBS, although it seems toppy
DBS took credit costs/assets at 4bps in 2Q23 vs 13bps average during FY18, FY19 quarterly
There are not many banks that we can turn too with over 50% QoQ decline in credit costs


DBS - Is This the Time To Take Provision Expenses at 70% Lower than Average?

<ul>
<li>The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS (DBS SP)</a>. There will be fines and higher required capital.  </li>
<li>The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a> results are all illustrative of risks facing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS (DBS SP)</a> before results come out, especially credit costs.</li>
</ul>


The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at DBS (DBS SP). There will be fines and higher required capital.  
The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.

UOB (UOB SP) , Standard Chartered (STAN LN) , HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) results are all illustrative of risks facing DBS (DBS SP) before results come out, especially credit costs.


DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.</li>
<li>Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.</li>
</ul>


Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.
Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.


Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services.  The Company offers services including mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, nominee and trustee, funds management, corporate advisory and brokerage .  DBS Group also acts as the primary dealer in Singapore government securities.

DBS (DBS SP)

DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

DBS is now guiding for 0% profit growth during FY24. The figures out today appear very much 'as good as they get.' Credit metrics are worsening,...

Daniel Tabbush

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - ASEAN and ANZ

In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with ASEAN and ANZ after having looked at other regions earlier.

Sumeet Singh

DBS - Is This the Time To Take Provision Expenses at 70% Lower than Average?

With July domestic credit growth turning negative at -3% YoY this is a new development, and the delta in Singapore credit growth downward has been...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

DBS faces fines and higher capital requirements, due to digital banking services outages. This is new. It comes at time where domestic loan growth...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

DBS is now guiding for 0% profit growth during FY24. The figures out today appear very much 'as good as they get.' Credit metrics are worsening,...

Daniel Tabbush

Aequitas 2024 Asia IPO Pipeline - ASEAN and ANZ

In this note, we will look at the Asia Pacific IPO pipeline for 2024, following up with ASEAN and ANZ after having looked at other regions earlier.

Sumeet Singh

DBS - Is This the Time To Take Provision Expenses at 70% Lower than Average?

With July domestic credit growth turning negative at -3% YoY this is a new development, and the delta in Singapore credit growth downward has been...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

DBS faces fines and higher capital requirements, due to digital banking services outages. This is new. It comes at time where domestic loan growth...

Daniel Tabbush

Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released...

Sumeet Singh