Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur clocked c.5%)</li>
<li>Volumes arrested a declining trend of the previous four quarters and were flat (HSIE 1%) with c.1% four-year CAGR</li>
<li>GM continued to expand sequentially (100bps) to 66.9%, better than our expectation of 66%</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur clocked c.5%)
Volumes arrested a declining trend of the previous four quarters and were flat (HSIE 1%) with c.1% four-year CAGR
GM continued to expand sequentially (100bps) to 66.9%, better than our expectation of 66%

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Colgate Palmolive, Deepak Nitrite, Alkyl Amines, Sapphire Foods

<ul><li>Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur clocked c.5%)</li><li>Volumes arrested a declining trend of the previous four quarters and were flat (HSIE 1%) with c.1% four-year CAGR</li><li>GM continued to expand sequentially (100bps) to 66.9%, better than our expectation of 66%</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur clocked c.5%)Volumes arrested a declining trend of the previous four quarters and were flat (HSIE 1%) with c.1% four-year CAGRGM continued to expand sequentially (100bps) to 66.9%, better than our expectation of 66%Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Colgate Palmolive, Deepak Nitrite, Alkyl Amines

<ul><li>Our chemical universe is expected to report a muted sequential growth, owing to subdued demand, courtesy the global recessionary headwinds faced by various end-user industries</li><li>Revenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by ~6/5% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>EBITDA margin could deteriorate by 188bps YoY and remain flattish sequentially at 21%, owing to the elevated raw material cost and lower absorption of fixed cost.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our chemical universe is expected to report a muted sequential growth, owing to subdued demand, courtesy the global recessionary headwinds faced by various end-user industriesRevenue for our coverage universe is likely to improve by ~6/5% YoY/QoQ.EBITDA margin could deteriorate by 188bps YoY and remain flattish sequentially at 21%, owing to the elevated raw material cost and lower absorption of fixed cost.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The Indian chemical industry continues to be an attractive hub of opportunities, even in an environment of global uncertainty</li><li>The uniqueness of the chemical industry is that it requires both the creation of tangible assets and technical manpower</li><li>We believe domestic chemical companies have abundant opportunities to partner in technology</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Indian chemical industry continues to be an attractive hub of opportunities, even in an environment of global uncertaintyThe uniqueness of the chemical industry is that it requires both the creation of tangible assets and technical manpowerWe believe domestic chemical companies have abundant opportunities to partner in technologyContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Chemical Sector 2.0 - Catalysts for Growth in Place

India

Deepak Nitrite Limited manufactures chemicals and fertilizers. The Company's products include sodium nitrite/nitrate, nitric acid, ammonium nitrate, and Hydroxylamine Sulphate.  Deepak Nitrite's other two divisions manufacture dyes & dyestuffs and nitro aromatics.

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Deepak Nitrite (DN IN)

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Vermilion Research

HSIE Results Daily: Colgate Palmolive, Deepak Nitrite, Alkyl Amines, Sapphire Foods

Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Colgate Palmolive, Deepak Nitrite, Alkyl Amines

Colgate Palmolive: Colgate’s domestic revenue grew 5% YoY (four-year CAGR sustaining at 4%), led by high single-digit growth in toothpaste (Dabur...

HDFC Securities

Chemicals: Recovery and stability ahead!

Our chemical universe is expected to report a muted sequential growth, owing to subdued demand, courtesy the global recessionary headwinds faced by...

HDFC Securities

Indian Chemical Sector 2.0 - Catalysts for Growth in Place

The Indian chemical industry continues to be an attractive hub of opportunities, even in an environment of global uncertainty

HDFC Securities

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