European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Delivery Hero closed at €37.05 on 27 August, leaving 12.0% upside to Uber's €41.50 cash offer, versus an 8.6% spread when we last wrote.</li>
<li>The offer document confirms multiple parallel approvals for the acquisition and SSW disposal, with settlement potentially delayed until November 2027.</li>
<li>We retain an 85% completion probability. The spread now offers c.9.7% annualised to mid-November 2027, with the downside/upside ratio improving from c.2.3x to c.1.5x.</li>
</ul>


Delivery Hero closed at €37.05 on 27 August, leaving 12.0% upside to Uber's €41.50 cash offer, versus an 8.6% spread when we last wrote.
The offer document confirms multiple parallel approvals for the acquisition and SSW disposal, with settlement potentially delayed until November 2027.
We retain an 85% completion probability. The spread now offers c.9.7% annualised to mid-November 2027, with the downside/upside ratio improving from c.2.3x to c.1.5x.


Uber Technologies / Delivery Hero: Paid to Wait

<ul>
<li>Uber agreed a €41.50/share recommended cash offer. Board support, irrevocable commitments and Uber's existing stake materially improve completion prospects despite a lengthy regulatory timetable.</li>
<li>The simultaneous €1.4bn sale of 14 businesses to SSW Partners addresses key competition concerns before formal antitrust review, strengthening the transaction's overall deliverability.</li>
<li>At €38.20, Delivery Hero trades at an 8.6% gross spread, implying an estimated 6-6.5% annualised gross return assuming completion during Q4 2027.</li>
</ul>


Uber agreed a €41.50/share recommended cash offer. Board support, irrevocable commitments and Uber's existing stake materially improve completion prospects despite a lengthy regulatory timetable.
The simultaneous €1.4bn sale of 14 businesses to SSW Partners addresses key competition concerns before formal antitrust review, strengthening the transaction's overall deliverability.
At €38.20, Delivery Hero trades at an 8.6% gross spread, implying an estimated 6-6.5% annualised gross return assuming completion during Q4 2027.


Uber Technologies / Delivery Hero: The Last Mile

<ul>
<li>Delivery Hero has confirmed "advanced negotiations" with Uber, materially reducing execution risk and indicating that discussions have progressed well beyond the preliminary approach disclosed in May.</li>
<li>The company continues to decline comment on valuation, suggesting that consideration remains under negotiation, with shareholder expectations appearing anchored around €40/share and above.</li>
<li>The timing also puts the European Commission's decision to extend Prosus' disposal deadline into better context, although the two events cannot be linked directly.</li>
</ul>


Delivery Hero has confirmed "advanced negotiations" with Uber, materially reducing execution risk and indicating that discussions have progressed well beyond the preliminary approach disclosed in May.
The company continues to decline comment on valuation, suggesting that consideration remains under negotiation, with shareholder expectations appearing anchored around €40/share and above.
The timing also puts the European Commission's decision to extend Prosus' disposal deadline into better context, although the two events cannot be linked directly.


Uber Technologies / Delivery Hero: Negotiations Move Centre Stage

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we track the fitness wave across Asia, why Thailand is the one Asian market foreign investors are buying, and the wave of consolidation reshaping mobility-tech.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we track the fitness wave across Asia, why Thailand is the one Asian market foreign investors are buying, and the wave of consolidation reshaping mobility-tech.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Asia Gets Fit, Thailand Bucks the Asia Sell-Off & Mobility-Tech Consolidates

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

<ul>
<li>On the 17th of January, we published an insight flagging an opportunity to put on a pairs trade long Naspers, short Prosus.</li>
<li>Since the start of the year, Naspers' underperformance relative to Prosus was, in our view, overdone.</li>
<li>Naspers has outperformed Prosus by 3.98% over the last 8 trading days. We suggest closing out at current levels.</li>
</ul>


On the 17th of January, we published an insight flagging an opportunity to put on a pairs trade long Naspers, short Prosus.
Since the start of the year, Naspers' underperformance relative to Prosus was, in our view, overdone.
Naspers has outperformed Prosus by 3.98% over the last 8 trading days. We suggest closing out at current levels.


Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): Time to Close Out Pairs Trade as Discount Falls to 8.9% from 13.7%

Germany

Delivery Hero SE offers e-commerce services. The Company provides online food ordering services. Delivery Hero serves customers Germany.

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Delivery Hero SE (DHER GR)

Uber Technologies / Delivery Hero: Paid to Wait

Delivery Hero's discount to Uber's cash offer has widened. The formal offer document provides some clues as to why — and whether the risk/reward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Uber Technologies / Delivery Hero: The Last Mile

Uber has agreed to acquire Delivery Hero for €41.50/share. The price is straightforward; the transaction structure is not. That is where most of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Uber Technologies / Delivery Hero: Negotiations Move Centre Stage

Delivery Hero has confirmed advanced negotiations with Uber. The announcement answers one question, but leaves the most important one unresolved.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Curator's Cut: Asia Gets Fit, Thailand Bucks the Asia Sell-Off & Mobility-Tech Consolidates

In this cut, we track the fitness wave across Asia, why Thailand is the one Asian market foreign investors are buying, and the wave of...

Pranav Rao

Naspers (NPN) X Prosus (PRX): Time to Close Out Pairs Trade as Discount Falls to 8.9% from 13.7%

To those that missed the NPN/PRX pairs trade update, Naspers has outperformed Prosus by 4.1% during the last 9 trading days. We suggest closing out...

DMA

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