AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia is transitioning from a GPU vendor to a full-stack systems supplier for AI infrastructure, with the Data Centre segment driven more by integrated rack-scale deployments than standalone accelerators.</li>
<li>Management positions Nvidia as the reference architecture for a “$3–4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build”, but finished goods inventories are up 90%+ amid "sold-out cloud capacity."</li>
<li>The rapid shift toward rack-scale systems introduces new ecosystem tensions, as Nvidia’s move into full system design increasingly overlaps with the domain of OEM partners.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia is transitioning from a GPU vendor to a full-stack systems supplier for AI infrastructure, with the Data Centre segment driven more by integrated rack-scale deployments than standalone accelerators.
Management positions Nvidia as the reference architecture for a “$3–4 trillion annual AI infrastructure build”, but finished goods inventories are up 90%+ amid "sold-out cloud capacity."
The rapid shift toward rack-scale systems introduces new ecosystem tensions, as Nvidia’s move into full system design increasingly overlaps with the domain of OEM partners.


Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

<ul>
<li>DRAM has jumped 172 % YoY and is still climbing; another 30–50 % hike is baked into Q4, wiping out the 4–6 % operating margins most PC OEMs live on.</li>
<li>Intel’s soldered-down LPDDR5X, once hated for killing the lucrative RAM-up-sell, now locks the memory cost inside the processor.</li>
<li>With memory inflation off their books via a safe margin play, OEMs can hold notebook ASPs and guidance</li>
</ul>


DRAM has jumped 172 % YoY and is still climbing; another 30–50 % hike is baked into Q4, wiping out the 4–6 % operating margins most PC OEMs live on.
Intel’s soldered-down LPDDR5X, once hated for killing the lucrative RAM-up-sell, now locks the memory cost inside the processor.
With memory inflation off their books via a safe margin play, OEMs can hold notebook ASPs and guidance


How 172% DRAM Spikes Turn Intel’s ‘Worst’ Feature Into Its Best Asset

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers </li>
<li>NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive </li>
<li>Silicon Valley's Substrate -- ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream? </li>
</ul>


NVIDIA Results: Taiwan Take-Aways -- Demand Visibility Implies Strength for Key Suppliers 
NVDA Strong Quarter, Strong Guidance, Consensus ~20% Too Low, Stock Is Not Expensive 
Silicon Valley's Substrate -- ASML, TSMC Slayer Or Ideological Pipe Dream? 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: NVDA Results- Taiwan Supplier Winners; Silicon Valley's Substrate- TSMC Slayer?

<ul>
<li>OpenAI’s growth model relies on an intricate loop of vendor financing, aggressive forward contracts, and $80B+ in projected external capital.</li>
<li>Long-Dated chip commitments seem less about immediate infra demand and more about bolstering OpenAI’s fundraising optics by showcasing secured access to future capacity.</li>
<li>If credit tightens or execution slips, the weakest links—OEMs and private equity firms backing infra-hungry AI startups—may snap first, with cascading effects on Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC to follow.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI’s growth model relies on an intricate loop of vendor financing, aggressive forward contracts, and $80B+ in projected external capital.
Long-Dated chip commitments seem less about immediate infra demand and more about bolstering OpenAI’s fundraising optics by showcasing secured access to future capacity.
If credit tightens or execution slips, the weakest links—OEMs and private equity firms backing infra-hungry AI startups—may snap first, with cascading effects on Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC to follow.


OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

<ul>
<li>GB10 Brings Nvidia AI Performance From Data Center to the Desktop</li>
<li>GB10 PCs Will Be "True" AI PCs, Their Capabilities Will Be More Evident</li>
<li>From Niche to Market Driver; Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek, Asustek, Acer</li>
</ul>


GB10 Brings Nvidia AI Performance From Data Center to the Desktop
GB10 PCs Will Be "True" AI PCs, Their Capabilities Will Be More Evident
From Niche to Market Driver; Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek, Asustek, Acer


PC Monitor: Nvidia GB10 PCs Poised to Redefine the AI PC Category

United States

Dell Technologies Inc. provides computer products. The Company offers laptops, desktops, tablets, workstations, servers, monitors, printers, gateways, software, storage, and networking products. Dell Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Dell Technologies (DELL US)

Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

Mint Finance

How 172% DRAM Spikes Turn Intel’s ‘Worst’ Feature Into Its Best Asset

DRAM prices have surged 172% YoY, impacting PC OEMs' operating margins. Intel's LPDDR5X now includes memory cost, allowing OEMs to maintain...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: NVDA Results- Taiwan Supplier Winners; Silicon Valley's Substrate- TSMC Slayer?

NVIDIA's strong results suggest strong demand for key suppliers in Taiwan, while ASML and TSMC are at the forefront of Silicon Valley's substrate...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Mint Finance

PC Monitor: Nvidia GB10 PCs Poised to Redefine the AI PC Category

Nvidia's GB10 brings AI performance to desktop PCs, transforming them into "true" AI machines and driving market growth for Mediatek, Asustek, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sold Out Yet Stockpiled: Nvidia’s Q3 Highlights Potential Deployment Limits

​Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

Mint Finance

How 172% DRAM Spikes Turn Intel’s ‘Worst’ Feature Into Its Best Asset

​DRAM prices have surged 172% YoY, impacting PC OEMs' operating margins. Intel's LPDDR5X now includes memory cost, allowing OEMs to maintain...

Mint Finance

Taiwan Tech Weekly: NVDA Results- Taiwan Supplier Winners; Silicon Valley's Substrate- TSMC Slayer?

​NVIDIA's strong results suggest strong demand for key suppliers in Taiwan, while ASML and TSMC are at the forefront of Silicon Valley's substrate...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

​OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Mint Finance

PC Monitor: Nvidia GB10 PCs Poised to Redefine the AI PC Category

​Nvidia's GB10 brings AI performance to desktop PCs, transforming them into "true" AI machines and driving market growth for Mediatek, Asustek, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nvidia shifts focus to AI infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack systems supplier, but faces challenges with hyperscaler capex and rising...

DRAM prices have surged 172% YoY, impacting PC OEMs' operating margins. Intel's LPDDR5X now includes memory cost, allowing OEMs to maintain...

NVIDIA's strong results suggest strong demand for key suppliers in Taiwan, while ASML and TSMC are at the forefront of Silicon Valley's substrate...

OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Nvidia's GB10 brings AI performance to desktop PCs, transforming them into "true" AI machines and driving market growth for Mediatek, Asustek, and...