'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 28th MARCH •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/770/original/image_57334545521616964192596.png?1616964192" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197770"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/771/original/image_10738985631616964271545.png?1616964271" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197771"></figure><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Of Friday's seven results announcements, only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/demae-can-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10524:1" rel="noopener">Demae-Can (2484 JP)</a> saw a significant decline in profitability, although our scoring system gives the company credit for the 210% year-on-year change in revenues - they continue to 'make it up on volume'! </p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 28th MARCH •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/772/original/2021-03-27_08-15-34.png?1616964525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197772"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Of the 32 annual forecasts and revisions, only 56% scored positively of which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life (8194 JP)</a> was the largest cap. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/774/original/image_47158678551616964791891.png?1616964792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197774"></figure><p>Meanwhile, urban railway operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/odakyu-electric-railway-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5405:1" rel="noopener">Odakyu Electric Railway (9007 JP) </a>is forecasting slightly lower full-year operating income but has added ¥8.3 billion in net losses to February's forecast.</p><p></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/197/775/original/image_73678410461616964884061.png?1616964884" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="197775"></figure>

• RESULTS - 28th MARCH •RESULTS - Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability, although our scoring system gives the company credit for the 210% year-on-year change in revenues - they continue to 'make it up on volume'! • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 28th MARCH •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 32 annual forecasts and revisions, only 56% scored positively of which Life (8194 JP) was the largest cap. Meanwhile, urban railway operator Odakyu Electric Railway (9007 JP) is forecasting slightly lower full-year operating income but has added ¥8.3 billion in net losses to February's forecast.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/304/original/2021-01-18_07-21-17.png?1611015356" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183304"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/305/original/2021-01-19_09-18-35.png?1611015525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183305"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><p><strong>POLES APART</strong><strong>&amp; ECHOES OF 2000</strong>- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/321/original/2021-01-19_10-25-51.png?1611019564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183321"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/323/original/2021-01-19_10-27-10.png?1611019660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183323"></figure></section><p><strong>BLOW OUT</strong> - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/363/original/2021-01-19_12-45-46.png?1611027961" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183363"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/183/367/original/2021-01-19_13-09-06.png?1611029374" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="183367"></figure></section><div><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.</p></div></div></div>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE OUTLIERS •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsPOLES APART&amp; ECHOES OF 2000- As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold (Relative Price Score &lt;-2.0) and those that are OverBought (RPS &gt; 4.0) remains at extreme levels as does the spread in terms of market weight. 7.2% of listed companies are Oversold; while 2.2% are OverBought, but the latter account for 13.7% of market value; the former just 5.4%. The last time both pairs of metrics were at these levels was the 2000 technology bubble.BLOW OUT - As was the case in 2000, the total number of Sectors either OverBought or Oversold is also at an extreme level having peaked at 13 in December. This number has been exceeded only twice in the last fifty years  - in December 1999 (16) and February 2000 (14).   In the DETAIL section below, we provide an update on  Sector, Peer Group and individual company Relative Price Score trends and outliers and make some stock-specific recommendations.THE JAPAN ANALYTICS RELATIVE PRICE SCORE -  The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices over the last 28 years and 24 months, respectively. As all companies on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and short-term changes in scoring can offer some trading opportunities. The data for all 3,919 currently-listed Companies is cap-weight-aggregated into Relative Price Scores for our 328 Peer Groups and 30 Sectors. The Overbought and Oversold outlier 'thresholds are set' at +4 &amp; -2 for Companies, +3 &amp; -1.5 for Peer Groups and +2 and -1 for Sectors, respectively. These thresholds equate with the top and bottom percentiles of over 3.2 million observations.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores -  Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/203/original/2020-11-17_12-24-48.png?1605583510" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172203"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>BRIGHTER, LATER</strong> - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by ¥1.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward multiple is unchanged at 31 times, despite a 7% rise in market capitalisation. Although this 'season' was the best in two years in terms of forecast profits, trailing earnings are still falling, by almost ¥3 trillion in the case of operating income. Much of the market optimism rests on a Japan experiencing a mild COVID winter and the impact of the incoming Biden administration's policy pronouncements on the US dollar. </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/219/original/2020-11-17_13-33-54.png?1605587647" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172219"></figure></section><p><strong>5.2% TTM OPERATING MARGINS</strong> - Aggregate Operating Income has declined by a third year-on-year on a 10% decline in revenues. The good news is that the pace of decline is slowing. Nevertheless, all of the Abe-era gains in earnings have now been unwound.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/230/original/2020-11-17_13-47-49.png?1605588488" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172230"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/394/original/2020-11-18_07-24-55.png?1605651921" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172394"></figure></section><p><strong>4.8% FORECAST OPERATING MARGINS</strong> - Operating margins are forecast to contract further over the next five months to 4.8%. Forecast revenues and operating income are both 3% lower than three months ago, the slowest rate of attrition in three quarters. The current market euphoria, which has taken total capitalisation to within 3% of the pre-COVID high is implying that the next 'print' of this data series, will be positive.    </p></section><section class="figure"></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/172/256/original/2020-11-17_14-22-29.png?1605590564" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="172256"></figure></section><p><strong>POSITIVE MOMENTUM</strong> - The sharp recovery in earnings momentum, which the market has been discounting is now materialising. Our Forecast/Revision Score has returned to March levels while the trailing Results Score has bottomed out well above the low of 2009. </p>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"></section><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. </p></div></section></section>

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by ¥1.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward multiple is unchanged at 31 times, despite a 7% rise in market capitalisation. Although this 'season' was the best in two years in terms of forecast profits, trailing earnings are still falling, by almost ¥3 trillion in the case of operating income. Much of the market optimism rests on a Japan experiencing a mild COVID winter and the impact of the incoming Biden administration's policy pronouncements on the US dollar. 
5.2% TTM OPERATING MARGINS - Aggregate Operating Income has declined by a third year-on-year on a 10% decline in revenues. The good news is that the pace of decline is slowing. Nevertheless, all of the Abe-era gains in earnings have now been unwound.
4.8% FORECAST OPERATING MARGINS - Operating margins are forecast to contract further over the next five months to 4.8%. Forecast revenues and operating income are both 3% lower than three months ago, the slowest rate of attrition in three quarters. The current market euphoria, which has taken total capitalisation to within 3% of the pre-COVID high is implying that the next 'print' of this data series, will be positive.    POSITIVE MOMENTUM - The sharp recovery in earnings momentum, which the market has been discounting is now materialising. Our Forecast/Revision Score has returned to March levels while the trailing Results Score has bottomed out well above the low of 2009. 
In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkiso-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6272:1" rel="noopener">Nikkiso (6376 JP).</a></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/825/original/2020-10-23_06-19-12.png?1603401664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166825"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/166/826/original/2020-10-23_06-20-11.png?1603401680" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="166826"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>8 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 38% Positive / 0% Neutral / 63% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.3% Quarter YoY / -1.4% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 6% Neutral / 63% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 53% Positive / 7% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS
8 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 38% Positive / 0% Neutral / 63% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -3.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.3% Quarter YoY / -1.4% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%
16 Annual • 15 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 31% Positive / 6% Neutral / 63% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 7% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a> and health and beauty product E-commerce play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitanotatsujin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6126:1" rel="noopener">Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP)</a>.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/456/original/2020-10-16_06-21-15.png?1602796892" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165456"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/457/original/2020-10-16_06-22-00.png?1602796932" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165457"></figure></section>
</div><div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>73 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 11% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +0.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.3% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.1ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 36%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>44 Annual • 18 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 52% Positive / 9% Neutral / 39% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 39% Positive / 0% Neutral / 61% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.6 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS73 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 45% Positive / 11% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +0.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.3% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 36%
44 Annual • 18 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 52% Positive / 9% Neutral / 39% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 39% Positive / 0% Neutral / 61% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.6 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Japan

Demae-can Co., Ltd. operates websites offering comprehensive delivery services.  The Company's websites allow users to order food, dry cleaning, and repair and recycling services through the Internet.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Demae-Can Co., Ltd. (2484 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability - they continue to 'make it up on...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Campbell Gunn

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🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

Of Friday's seven results announcements, only Demae-Can (2484 JP) saw a significant decline in profitability - they continue to 'make it up on...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • January Relative Price Scores - Actionable Mean Reversion Trades

As the Japanese equity market continues to rise the 'spread' between the percentage of listed companies that are OverSold and those that are...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Autumn 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRIGHTER, LATER - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter, higher than three months ago by...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP) and Nikkiso (6376 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is Pasona (2168 JP) and health and beauty product E-commerce play Kitanotatsujin (2930 JP).

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/26 - Demae-Can, Life, Odakyu Electric Railway

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/22 -Chugai, Disco, Benefit One [& Pasona], Oisix

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/15 - Pasona [Grata], FastRe, Demae-Can, NGK Spark