Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
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Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
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Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
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Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Lexus announced its new LF-Z EV concept yesterday, laying out broad plans for its electrification strategy and future development outlook. The brand has seen less news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing. This has implications for a variety of suppliers.

Lexus announced its new LF-Z EV concept yesterday, laying out broad plans for its electrification strategy and future development outlook. The brand has seen less news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing. This has implications for a variety of suppliers.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

A month ago, known active (and occasional activist and concentrated investor) Effissimo Capital Management announced an unsolicited partial Tender Offer to purchase 4,834,343 shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanken-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6073:1" rel="noopener">Sanken Electric (6707 JP)</a> to take it from 9.97% to 30.00% at ¥5210/share. The announcement was deliberately couched in terms to make it seem friendly. Effissimo is not going for negative control, or seeking to interfere with management in any way. They say they just want more stock. The shares, which had recently traded from the area of the Tender Offer Price down to sub-¥4500/share, immediately bounced, trading 10% through terms on the first full day of trading after going limit up on Day 1.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/998/original/Screenshot+2021-03-09+at+3.51.32+PM.png?1615276314" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192998"></figure></section>Since then, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allegro-microsystems" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29707:1" rel="noopener">Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM US)</a> shares - Sanken's 52% subsidiary which it listed in November (and the key value driver for Sanken Electric), have fallen nearly 20% from just under US$31/share on 8 Feb the day after the announcement to US$25.14 yesterday.And Sanken itself has fallen back down to ¥5300/share, ~1.7% above the Tender Offer Price.In my first insight on the deal, I did not address "the stub trade" (Sanken's holding in Allegro, which was originally Sanken North America) and where I thought it should trade - as such - in the insight because frankly, it's difficult. The future is tough to predict. Below is a brief look at the parameters and the modalities.

A month ago, known active (and occasional activist and concentrated investor) Effissimo Capital Management announced an unsolicited partial Tender Offer to purchase 4,834,343 shares of Sanken Electric (6707 JP) to take it from 9.97% to 30.00% at ¥5210/share. The announcement was deliberately couched in terms to make it seem friendly. Effissimo is not going for negative control, or seeking to interfere with management in any way. They say they just want more stock. The shares, which had recently traded from the area of the Tender Offer Price down to sub-¥4500/share, immediately bounced, trading 10% through terms on the first full day of trading after going limit up on Day 1.Since then, Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM US) shares - Sanken's 52% subsidiary which it listed in November (and the key value driver for Sanken Electric), have fallen nearly 20% from just under US$31/share on 8 Feb the day after the announcement to US$25.14 yesterday.And Sanken itself has fallen back down to ¥5300/share, ~1.7% above the Tender Offer Price.In my first insight on the deal, I did not address "the stub trade" (Sanken's holding in Allegro, which was originally Sanken North America) and where I thought it should trade - as such - in the insight because frankly, it's difficult. The future is tough to predict. Below is a brief look at the parameters and the modalities.

Effissimo, Sanken, and Allegro - Thinking About the Future

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/toyota-autonomous-vehicle-startup-aurora-enter-self-driving-cars-partnership" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Toyota and Denso have reportedly struck a long-term partnership with key autonomous technology startup Aurora Innovation</a>. Part of our core thesis for automakers is that increasingly confident shifts into electrified technologies and later autonomous would reveal the immaturity and deficiencies of EV makers, popping this bubble. We do not expect this to happen overnight but there is one more step being taken here to shine light on the underlying reality in the space.

Toyota and Denso have reportedly struck a long-term partnership with key autonomous technology startup Aurora Innovation. Part of our core thesis for automakers is that increasingly confident shifts into electrified technologies and later autonomous would reveal the immaturity and deficiencies of EV makers, popping this bubble. We do not expect this to happen overnight but there is one more step being taken here to shine light on the underlying reality in the space.

Toyota – Strengthening Autonomous with Aurora Partnership

Japan

DENSO CORPORATION manufactures electronic parts for automobiles.  The Company's products include automobile air conditioners, air bags, ignition systems, generators, power steering systems, and spark plugs with iridium electrode. The Company also produces communication equipment for mobile navigation system.

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Denso Corp (6902 JP)

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

Toyota – Electrifying Lexus

Lexus has seen less EV related news flow than the main Toyota brand in terms of technological progress but this appears to now be changing and has...

Mio Kato

Effissimo, Sanken, and Allegro - Thinking About the Future

Effissimo launched a partial tender for Sanken (6707) and it went through terms as people noted the "stub trade" for Allegro Microsystems. It's...

Travis Lundy

Toyota – Strengthening Autonomous with Aurora Partnership

A partnership between Toyota and Denso and autonomous startup Aurora Innovation continues the trend of traditional automakers partnering with tech...

Mio Kato

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