IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities. </li>
<li>In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the <a href="https://www.acga-asia.org/blog-detail.php?id=102" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA)</a> on 2 July and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5c99c107-58a4-4434-b1b3-d6be44cf849e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sloane Robinson Investment Management</a> on 8 July.</li>
<li>Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO's intrinsic value.</li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan is susceptible to a bump if there is enough vocal opposition from minorities. 
In July, two public pieces have sharply criticised the offer – the Asian Corporate Governance Association (ACGA) on 2 July and Sloane Robinson Investment Management on 8 July.
Some of the criticism has merit, while others do not. Nevertheless, these letters are the first and right step to agitate for terms that are closer to TICO's intrinsic value.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.</li>
<li>Our top in China are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)  </a>
</li>
<li>Our top picks in Japan are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> and in India Auto it is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) &amp; </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener"> </a>
</li>
</ul>


We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China and India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.
Our top in China are Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) , Midea Group (300 HK) and Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)  

Our top picks in Japan are Denso Corp (6902 JP),ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) and in India Auto it is Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) &amp; Ashok Leyland (AL IN) 



Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

<ul>
<li>Several investors have sharply criticised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. </li>
<li>The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.</li>
<li>Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.</li>
</ul>


Several investors have sharply criticised Toyota Industries (6201 JP)’s preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan. Oasis is pushing for a higher offer. 
The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. The key grievance is that it is below TICO’s intrinsic value.
Due to TICO’s varied business units, SoTP valuation is the most appropriate methodology. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.</li>
<li>While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation. </li>
<li>The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings. </li>
</ul>



Toyota Industries (6201 JP) disclosed a preconditional tender offer from Toyota Fudosan at JPY16,300, a 23.3% premium to the undisturbed price but a 11.4% discount to last close.
While representing a pre-rumour all-time high, the offer is below the midpoint of the special committee IFA DCF valuation range. The Board has a neutral recommendation. 
The offer undermines minorities as it lacks split pricing for the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and its affiliates’ shareholding and likely undervalues the significant real estate holdings. 


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.47news.jp/12601000.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kyodo news agency</a> reported that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a> plans to accept a tender offer by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> and Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda, potentially in May or June.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOFD305LH0Q5A430C2000000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> that Toyota plans to borrow JPY3 trillion to fund the acquisition. These articles provide more clarity on price, composition of the offeror, financing structure, and timeline. </li>
<li>These articles increase the probability of a tender offer around JPY18,515 (JPY6 trillion market cap). At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%.</li>
</ul>



Kyodo news agency reported that Toyota Industries (6201 JP) plans to accept a tender offer by Toyota Motor (7203 JP) and Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda, potentially in May or June.
The Nikkei reported that Toyota plans to borrow JPY3 trillion to fund the acquisition. These articles provide more clarity on price, composition of the offeror, financing structure, and timeline. 
These articles increase the probability of a tender offer around JPY18,515 (JPY6 trillion market cap). At the last close, the gross spread was 12.1%.


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Potential Privatisation Sooner than Expected

Japan

DENSO CORPORATION manufactures electronic parts for automobiles.  The Company's products include automobile air conditioners, air bags, ignition systems, generators, power steering systems, and spark plugs with iridium electrode. The Company also produces communication equipment for mobile navigation system.

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Denso Corp (6902 JP)

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

The onus is now on minorities to publicly advocate for better terms or scuttle the tender offer. Two recent letters are the first and right step to...

Arun George

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder

While representing an all-time high pre-media rumour, the offer leaves minorities short-changed. This long-dated offer is susceptible to a bump but...

Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Potential Privatisation Sooner than Expected

The articles suggest an accelerated timeline for the tender offer and provide incremental clarity on key aspects of the offer. At the last close,...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

The onus is now on minorities to publicly advocate for better terms or scuttle the tender offer. Two recent letters are the first and right step to...

Arun George

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas Across China, Japan, India - June 2025

​Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Thoughts on Intrinsic Value

The offer has several issues that are detrimental to minorities' interests. My analysis suggests a base case intrinsic value of around JPY19,000.

Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): After a High, Comes the Low of a Takeunder

While representing an all-time high pre-media rumour, the offer leaves minorities short-changed. This long-dated offer is susceptible to a bump but...

Arun George

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Potential Privatisation Sooner than Expected

The articles suggest an accelerated timeline for the tender offer and provide incremental clarity on key aspects of the offer. At the last close,...

Arun George

Our selection of top companies in Japan, China, and India is based on bottom-up triggers in each company, with picks including Chow Tai Fook,...