Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<ul><li>
Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained marriage between OPEC and Russia, we have decided to re-publish some key excerpts from our note "Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing  - Watch for the Big Offload" dated November 17, 2019. </li></ul>
<ul><li>
Longer Lasting Damage This Time Around:The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition. </li></ul>
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Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained marriage between OPEC and Russia, we have decided to re-publish some key excerpts from our note "Risks In Leveraged Lending Skyrocketing  - Watch for the Big Offload" dated November 17, 2019. 

Longer Lasting Damage This Time Around:The sell-off in 2H18 credit markets was widespread due to global slowdown fears and nearly culminated with Jefferies (JEF) in a Lehman-style event. The wider fissures YTD in the leverage lending market look to be much more structural and longer lasting by definition. 


Risks In Leveraged Lending Have Skyrocketed - Watch For The Massive Offload

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<li>
No Confidence In American Leadership: The Trump administration's steroid-infused equity market left little room for slowdown and mistakes. There was certainly no buffer in a normal slowdown, let alone a buffer for a panic slowdown with the corona virus. The feckless American response to the pandemic has increased global uncertainty and a market crash.  </li>
<li>
Global Financial System Now On Edge:These market moves have wide implications for all financial institutions in Asia and Europe - especially those which are already capital challenged (China and Germany) - and reminiscent of issues we worried about during the global financial crisis.</li>
</ul>



No Confidence In American Leadership: The Trump administration's steroid-infused equity market left little room for slowdown and mistakes. There was certainly no buffer in a normal slowdown, let alone a buffer for a panic slowdown with the corona virus. The feckless American response to the pandemic has increased global uncertainty and a market crash.  

Global Financial System Now On Edge:These market moves have wide implications for all financial institutions in Asia and Europe - especially those which are already capital challenged (China and Germany) - and reminiscent of issues we worried about during the global financial crisis.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), also called 'The World's Most Important Number', acts as a benchmark for over US$240 trillion of assets and with LIBOR scheduled to be replaced by the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) by end 2021, the stakes have rarely been higher to ensure a smooth transition.In this Insight, we take a look at the history of LIBOR, what are LIBOR and SOFR and how they differ, why is the transition needed, the progress made in the transition and who will be affected by the transition.

The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), also called 'The World's Most Important Number', acts as a benchmark for over US$240 trillion of assets and with LIBOR scheduled to be replaced by the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) by end 2021, the stakes have rarely been higher to ensure a smooth transition.In this Insight, we take a look at the history of LIBOR, what are LIBOR and SOFR and how they differ, why is the transition needed, the progress made in the transition and who will be affected by the transition.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term. Additionally, considering the dearth of breakdowns, we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. We recap importat technical levels across markets and highlight opportunities within the Services, Technology, Financial Services, and Staples Sectors.

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term. Additionally, considering the dearth of breakdowns, we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. We recap importat technical levels across markets and highlight opportunities within the Services, Technology, Financial Services, and Staples Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Over Value

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<li>Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. </li>
<li>Higher share market prices have offset the impact of increasing unemployment claims and the decline in housing permits in the U.S.  </li>
<li>A European economic rebound appears extremely unlikely with the risk of recession being very high. As China currently is in lock down over the Wuhan corona virus, the Europe's economy would appear to be on a knife's edge given the impact this is having on exports. </li>
</ul>


Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However, asset bubbles continue to grow. 
Higher share market prices have offset the impact of increasing unemployment claims and the decline in housing permits in the U.S.  
A European economic rebound appears extremely unlikely with the risk of recession being very high. As China currently is in lock down over the Wuhan corona virus, the Europe's economy would appear to be on a knife's edge given the impact this is having on exports. 


Germany

Deutsche Bank AG is a global financial service provider delivering commercial, investment, private, and retail banking. The Bank offers debt, foreign exchange, derivatives, commodities, money markets, repo and securitization, cash equities, research, equity prime services, loans, convertibles, advice on M&A and IPO's, trade finance, retail banking, asset management, and corporate investments.

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Deutsche Bank (DBK GR)

Risks In Leveraged Lending Have Skyrocketed - Watch For The Massive Offload

Oil Weakness To Spur Increased Risk to Leveraged Loan Markets:In light of oil prices declining 21% over the day as a result of the strained...

Thomas J. Monaco

America Shakes, Global Banks Quake

No Confidence In American Leadership: The Trump administration's steroid-infused equity market left little room for slowdown and mistakes. There...

Thomas J. Monaco

The End of LIBOR Is Not SOFR Away

The London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), also called 'The World's Most Important Number', acts as a benchmark for over US$240 trillion of assets...

Brian Freitas

Global Equity Strategy: Growth Over Value

We continue to see coronavirus concerns as helping correct the excess bullish sentiment across global equity markets in the short-term....

Vermilion Research

Global Stall Speed Growth Confirmed

Massive central bank liquidity and fiscal stimulus came rushing in to stabilize the global economy in 2019, and should continue in 2020. However,...

Thomas J. Monaco

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