Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* President Erdogan is Likely to Win, and Capital Controls Likely Will Follow;  and * All Signs Point to TRL Weakness on Par With Argentina.  <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Ahead of this weekend’s elections (June 24th) in Turkey, President Erdogan rescinded his recent narrative that the Central Bank of Turkey will regain independence. Instead, he indicated that “You will see how we deal with interest rates and other things once you give me the authority".  President Erdogan has removed any doubt that  this…

* President Erdogan is Likely to Win, and Capital Controls Likely Will Follow;  and * All Signs Point to TRL Weakness on Par With Argentina.  Investment SummaryAhead of this weekend’s elections (June 24th) in Turkey, President Erdogan rescinded his recent narrative that the Central Bank of Turkey will regain independence. Instead, he indicated that “You will see how we deal with interest rates and other things once you give me the authority".  President Erdogan has removed any doubt that  this…

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

We attended a series of lectures by an SCB executive Danai Aroonkittichai recently, and while we're not bond gurus ourselves, it's interesting to share some of his thoughts. We're not gonna bore you to death with all plain/technical stuff like plain-vanilla bonds, conventions, duration, and convexity. Instead, let's talk about the five new kinds of bonds. Some of their Thai examples were even highlighted. We think they have a role in better capital allocation and may help increase the value of…

We attended a series of lectures by an SCB executive Danai Aroonkittichai recently, and while we're not bond gurus ourselves, it's interesting to share some of his thoughts. We're not gonna bore you to death with all plain/technical stuff like plain-vanilla bonds, conventions, duration, and convexity. Instead, let's talk about the five new kinds of bonds. Some of their Thai examples were even highlighted. We think they have a role in better capital allocation and may help increase the value of…

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will  drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide Italy into a recession, as such, the September election appears to be a de facto referendum on the European Union (EU) and EUR. * Financials Tax Looming: Questions arise over how coalition will cover the budget deficit. The financial sector is the proverbial fish in the barrel with over EUR 20 bn in profits. Investment SummaryOn Monday, June 4, 2018…

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will  drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide Italy into a recession, as such, the September election appears to be a de facto referendum on the European Union (EU) and EUR. * Financials Tax Looming: Questions arise over how coalition will cover the budget deficit. The financial sector is the proverbial fish in the barrel with over EUR 20 bn in profits. Investment SummaryOn Monday, June 4, 2018…

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and TRL. * Even in a best case scenario of a soft landing and a Chinese rescue package, significant EPS downgrades are likely with 2018 GDP warnings, the pro-cyclicality of IFRS9 which will increase loan provisioning by 100 bps, and imminent loan growth deceleration on the back of higher local rates. * Economic data is weak: Current account deficit of 6.5%…

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and TRL. * Even in a best case scenario of a soft landing and a Chinese rescue package, significant EPS downgrades are likely with 2018 GDP warnings, the pro-cyclicality of IFRS9 which will increase loan provisioning by 100 bps, and imminent loan growth deceleration on the back of higher local rates. * Economic data is weak: Current account deficit of 6.5%…

*Out of Control Credit Risk: High yield credit risk is out of control at 5% of global GDP just as credit metrics at the top of the market are exhibiting vulnerabilities.*Other Credit Challenges Ahead: Areas such as student lending, sub-prime auto, credit cards, Alt-A /home equity loans, securities-based lending , commercial MBS, and non-financial debt also pose global financial sector vulnerabilities.<h2>Investment Summary</h2>American bank CEOs argue that the leverage lending market is healthy due to…

*Out of Control Credit Risk: High yield credit risk is out of control at 5% of global GDP just as credit metrics at the top of the market are exhibiting vulnerabilities.*Other Credit Challenges Ahead: Areas such as student lending, sub-prime auto, credit cards, Alt-A /home equity loans, securities-based lending , commercial MBS, and non-financial debt also pose global financial sector vulnerabilities.Investment SummaryAmerican bank CEOs argue that the leverage lending market is healthy due to…

Systemic Leverage Risk Has Returned In Full Force

Germany

Deutsche Bank AG is a global financial service provider delivering commercial, investment, private, and retail banking. The Bank offers debt, foreign exchange, derivatives, commodities, money markets, repo and securitization, cash equities, research, equity prime services, loans, convertibles, advice on M&A and IPO's, trade finance, retail banking, asset management, and corporate investments.

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Deutsche Bank (DBK GR)

Cold Turkey

* President Erdogan is Likely to Win, and Capital Controls Likely Will Follow; and * All Signs Point to TRL Weakness on Par With...

Thomas J. Monaco

Sathorn Series G: SCB on Bonds

We attended a series of lectures by an SCB executive Danai Aroonkittichai recently, and while we're not bond gurus ourselves, it's interesting to...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide...

Thomas J. Monaco

Turkey Shoot

* Stronger USD on the back of higher interest rates, and higher USD-denominated oil prices are the perfect storm for the Turkish economy and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Systemic Leverage Risk Has Returned In Full Force

*Out of Control Credit Risk: High yield credit risk is out of control at 5% of global GDP just as credit metrics at the top of the market are...

Thomas J. Monaco

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