Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-sf-intra-city-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34916:1" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City (9699 HK)</a> is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sf-intra-city-industrial-ipo-delivering-losses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61272" rel="noopener">SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses</a>, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. </li>
<li>While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   </li>
</ul>



SF Intra-City (9699 HK) is the largest Chinese independent third-party on-demand delivery service provider. It launched an HKEx IPO to raise net proceeds of $273 million at the IPO mid-point. 
In SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Delivering Losses, we noted that SF Intra-city’s fundamentals are less than inspiring. 
While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of losses/cash burn.   


SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-logistics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34119:1" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics (1292621D CH)</a> operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.</p>
<p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.</p>
<p>A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). </p>
</div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-logistics-ipo-initiation-home-delivery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57807" rel="noopener">ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery</a>, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ane-ipo-the-freight-debate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57957" rel="noopener">ANE IPO: The Freight Debate</a>, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.</p></div></div></div>


ANE Logistics (1292621D CH) operates a leading express freight network in China’s less-than-truckload (LTL) market. ANE operated the largest express freight network in China as measured by annual total freight volume in each of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, according to iResearch. ANE’s shareholders include Centurium, Carlyle, CDH, CPE, NWS, Ping An, Goldman Sachs and Yili.
At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, ANE will have a market cap of HK$16,137-19,625 million ($2.1-2.5 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are HK$1,124.1 million ($144 million), materially below the rumoured target of $500 million.
A single cornerstone investor, Harvest Prosperity SP, will purchase $12.5 million worth of the offer shares (7.88% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price range). 
In ANE Logistics IPO Initiation: Home Delivery, we stated that ANE is a play on China’s LTL market which offers substantial opportunities for market consolidation as the top 10 LTL operators in China had a market share of 5.7% by shipper spend in 2020, according to iResearch. As the largest (by freight volume), fastest-growing and most profitable player, ANE is well-positioned to be a market consolidator. We concluded that ANE’s fundamentals are solid. In ANE IPO: The Freight Debate, we stated that the PHIP continues to support our view that the ANE IPO is worth a look for investors willing to brave the current weak sentiment on HKEx IPOs. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range is attractive particularly at the low-end.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Among active Global investors, EMEA Industrials are the 6th largest regional sector allocation and the largest in the EMEA region, with a 4.80% holding weight on average.  This allocation places EMEA Industrials as the largest regional sector overweight at +2.05% above benchmark (vs MSCI ACWI) with 72.9% of funds holding more than the benchmark weight.</p><p>Over the last 6-months, cash flows have been among the highest across all Regional Sector groups, with $1bn in net inflows, more buyers than sellers and a marginal uptick in absolute and relative weights.</p><p>Over the last 6-months, German Industrials stand out as the key recipient of increased levels of positioning, with 4.2% of funds moving to overweight and 3.4% of funds buying in to the sector.</p><p>Ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> more than doubled from 9.2% in July 2020 to 20.8% today, with every month in between seeing new funds enter the name.  Key holders are RBC, Artemis and Nuveen, all of whom hold north of a 3% allocation.  Over the last 6-months, no closures were registered and instead 2.9% of funds opened positions, led by Cambriar's Global Equity Fund (1.88%) and John Hancock's Global Equity Fund (1.81%).</p><p></p><p><em>The analysis looks at the positioning of 380 active Global investors with combined AUM of $1.1tr.</em></p>

Among active Global investors, EMEA Industrials are the 6th largest regional sector allocation and the largest in the EMEA region, with a 4.80% holding weight on average.  This allocation places EMEA Industrials as the largest regional sector overweight at +2.05% above benchmark (vs MSCI ACWI) with 72.9% of funds holding more than the benchmark weight.Over the last 6-months, cash flows have been among the highest across all Regional Sector groups, with $1bn in net inflows, more buyers than sellers and a marginal uptick in absolute and relative weights.Over the last 6-months, German Industrials stand out as the key recipient of increased levels of positioning, with 4.2% of funds moving to overweight and 3.4% of funds buying in to the sector.Ownership in Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) more than doubled from 9.2% in July 2020 to 20.8% today, with every month in between seeing new funds enter the name.  Key holders are RBC, Artemis and Nuveen, all of whom hold north of a 3% allocation.  Over the last 6-months, no closures were registered and instead 2.9% of funds opened positions, led by Cambriar's Global Equity Fund (1.88%) and John Hancock's Global Equity Fund (1.81%).The analysis looks at the positioning of 380 active Global investors with combined AUM of $1.1tr.

EMEA Industrials: Global Consensus Overweight

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.</p><p>UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.</p><p>Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.</p><p>Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.</p><p>German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21713:1" rel="noopener">Siemens AG (SIE GR)</a> were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.</p><p>Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.</p>

Over 50% of allocations are in the US with the bulk of the remainder split between Japan, China &amp; HK and the major European nations.  The EMEA overweight is comprised mainly of the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany, with active managers running underweights in the US, China &amp; HK, Australia and Japan.UK allocations hover around their lowest levels in history, though managers remain stubbornly overweight compared to the MSCI AC World index.  A total of 62% of managers are overweight the UK at an average +1.88% above benchmark.  Global Value investors are approaching their largest ever overweight in UK stocks of 3.64% above benchmark.Another month, another slump in Japan exposure.  Average weights in Japan stand at an all-time low of 5.06% with 85.5% of funds exposed (another low). Sony Corp (6758 JP) and KDDI Corp (9433 JP) are the most widely held stocks, with 23% and 21% of funds holding a position.Tech exposure is at record highs, though this is matched by a record underweight of -0.47%.  Indeed, the percentage of funds who are overweight technology has fallen to below 50% for the first time since the end of 2018, a sign that Global managers are tilting their portfolios away from Tech.German Industrials allocations have hit a 4-year high as more Global investors add exposure to the sector. Deutsche Post AG (DPW GR) and Siemens AG (SIE GR) were the key stocks behind the move, with 4.2% and 2.4% of funds adding exposure over the last 6-months.Alibaba has seen closures by some of the larger holders in our analysis, led by American Funds Capital World Fund (-$1.1bn) and New Economy Fund (-$451m).  Though closures have dominated, selected funds have opened exposure during this period of volatility, including Invesco's Global Focus Fund and Liontrust's Global Income Fund.

Global Fund Positioning Update:  Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

Germany

Deutsche Post AG provides mail delivery and other services to the public and businesses. The Company offers domestic mail delivery, international parcel and mail delivery services, and freight delivery and logistics services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Deutsche Post (DHL GR)

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

SF Intra-City Industrial IPO: Valuation Insights

While the valuation is undemanding vs peers, we give the IPO a pass as SF Intra-city offers an unappetizing mix of high growth at the cost of...

Arun George

ANE IPO: Valuation Insights

At the proposed IPO price range of HK$13.88-16.88 per share, the net proceeds are $144 m. Our valuation analysis, suggests that the IPO price range...

Arun George

EMEA Industrials: Global Consensus Overweight

Over the last 6-months, cash flows into EMEA Industrials have been among the highest across all sectors, with inflows of $1bn, more buyers than...

Steven Holden

Global Fund Positioning Update: Japan Lows, US Highs, UK Value Rotation, Tencent & Alibaba Exit

A detailed look at investor positioning among 380 active Global strategies, covering the major themes in country, sector and stock exposure.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)