Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

Koninklijke Bam Groep Nv / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel / Axalta | EU and UK ‘Phase I’ deadlines to expire soon • InPost | Offeror reaches 98.49% after post-acceptance period • Shell | robust downstream margins and upstream volumes offset exploration write-down • Fagron | marginal downward outlook adjustment due to industry wide IV bag recall • BAM Group | acquires A.Hak for EUR 504m, strengthening position in energy and water infrastructure • E-commerce & Logistics | last mile shift towards OOH in the UK accelerates</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel / Axalta | EU and UK ‘Phase I’ deadlines to expire soon • InPost | Offeror reaches 98.49% after post-acceptance period • Shell | robust downstream margins and upstream volumes offset exploration write-down • Fagron | marginal downward outlook adjustment due to industry wide IV bag recall • BAM Group | acquires A.Hak for EUR 504m, strengthening position in energy and water infrastructure • E-commerce & Logistics | last mile shift towards OOH in the UK accelerates

Koninklijke BAM Groep NV - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul><li>In this edition: What's News in Amsterdam 7 October 2026 In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state to further reduce its stake in ABN Amro to 10.5% • Fugro | warns of a sharp slowdown in European offshore wind • TomTom | 3Q26 new car registrations expected to increase by high-single-digit percentage in Europe • Bnode | to start offering Luminus energy contracts via its postal offices • DHL / EVRi | cross-border expansion into the U.S. • E-commerce & Logistics | Swiss Post CEO: EU parcel tax will not slow down Chinese retailers</li></ul>

In this edition: What's News in Amsterdam 7 October 2026 In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state to further reduce its stake in ABN Amro to 10.5% • Fugro | warns of a sharp slowdown in European offshore wind • TomTom | 3Q26 new car registrations expected to increase by high-single-digit percentage in Europe • Bnode | to start offering Luminus energy contracts via its postal offices • DHL / EVRi | cross-border expansion into the U.S. • E-commerce & Logistics | Swiss Post CEO: EU parcel tax will not slow down Chinese retailers

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Ahold Delhaize | Albert Heijn Belgium did not violate the law Albert Heijn did not breach competition or consumer protection laws with its high-profile ‘2+5’ discount promotions, according to an investigation ordered by Belgian Consumer Protection Minister Rob Beenders.</li>
<li>The probe found no evidence of selling below cost or misleading promotions despite complaints about empty shelves and unclear conditions.</li>
<li>Authorities will continue monitoring pricing strategies to ensure transparency and prevent cross-subsidization through price increases on other products.</li>
</ul>


Ahold Delhaize | Albert Heijn Belgium did not violate the law Albert Heijn did not breach competition or consumer protection laws with its high-profile ‘2+5’ discount promotions, according to an investigation ordered by Belgian Consumer Protection Minister Rob Beenders.
The probe found no evidence of selling below cost or misleading promotions despite complaints about empty shelves and unclear conditions.
Authorities will continue monitoring pricing strategies to ensure transparency and prevent cross-subsidization through price increases on other products.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns</li>
<li>Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada</li>
</ul>


We are not fighting the trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring a few potential concerns
Concerns: notably global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 5.5-month RS highs, crude oil prices bottoming, and gasoline prices (UGA) breaking out from a 3.5+ year downtrend
Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets, Taiwan, Korea, Spain, Japan, and Canada


Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

<ul>
<li>Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports suggested its local operations were under review.</li>
<li>With roughly 700 stores, the company maintains one of the largest retail networks in the country.</li>
<li>However, its Belgian revenues - estimated at EUR 4.0–4.5bn - lag far behind peers that operate far fewer outlets. </li>
</ul>


Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports suggested its local operations were under review.
With roughly 700 stores, the company maintains one of the largest retail networks in the country.
However, its Belgian revenues - estimated at EUR 4.0–4.5bn - lag far behind peers that operate far fewer outlets. 


Germany

Deutsche Post AG provides mail delivery and other services to the public and businesses. The Company offers domestic mail delivery, international parcel and mail delivery services, and freight delivery and logistics services.

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Deutsche Post (DHL GR)

Koninklijke BAM Groep NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel / Axalta | EU and UK ‘Phase I’ deadlines to expire soon • InPost | Offeror reaches 98.49% after post-acceptance...

The IDEA!

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 7 October (ABN Amro | Fugro | TomTom | Bnode | DHL/EVRi | Ecom. & Log.)

In this edition: What's News in Amsterdam 7 October 2026 In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state to further reduce its stake in ABN Amro to...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam

Albert Heijn Belgium did not violate the law Albert Heijn did not breach competition or consumer protection laws with its high-profile ‘2+5’...

The IDEA!

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives: Energy, Materials, Real Estate, Telecom, Utes

Opportunity in Global Cyclical Value and Defensives; Actionable Themes: Energy, Materials, Transports, Real Estate, Telecom, and Utilities....

Vermilion Research

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

Ahold Delhaize | Carrefour firmly denies possible exit from Belgium Carrefour has firmly denied any intention to exit Belgium after media reports...

The IDEA!

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