Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29</li>
<li>In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process</li>
<li>We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress</li>
</ul>


Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29
In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process
We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress


SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • DHL | DHL e-Commerce UK / Evri merger receives unconditional approval • e-Commerce and Logistics | Shein fined EUR 150m for breaching European privacy rules</li></ul>

In this edition: • DHL | DHL e-Commerce UK / Evri merger receives unconditional approval • e-Commerce and Logistics | Shein fined EUR 150m for breaching European privacy rules

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 5 September (DHL / Evri | e-Commerce & Logistics)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America</li>
<li>No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are <em>falling</em>
</li>
<li>Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak</li>
</ul>


Airline &amp; airport air cargo data shows moderating demand, Asia &gt; N America
No signs of supply tightness in the system; in fact, reported yields are falling

Most indicators show that demand is mediocre, space plentiful, pricing weak


Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

<ul>
<li>Last week in its June quarter earnings release Alibaba "demoted" CaiNiao's status</li>
<li>It's become clear that boosting eComm logistics simply isn't a priority for Alibaba</li>
<li>For firms that took investment from Alibaba &amp; CaiNiao, implications are -Ive</li>
</ul>


Last week in its June quarter earnings release Alibaba "demoted" CaiNiao's status
It's become clear that boosting eComm logistics simply isn't a priority for Alibaba
For firms that took investment from Alibaba &amp; CaiNiao, implications are -Ive


Alibaba's Logistics Arm CaiNiao Relegated To "Others" Status | Implications for Chinese Express?

<ul>
<li>The Bad: Margins &amp; cash flow both declined sharply compared to Q224 </li>
<li>The Ugly: ZTO cut FY25 parcel volume growth target after a sluggish H1</li>
<li>With no signs of a turnaround in sight, we retain our negative view of ZTO</li>
</ul>


The Bad: Margins &amp; cash flow both declined sharply compared to Q224 
The Ugly: ZTO cut FY25 parcel volume growth target after a sluggish H1
With no signs of a turnaround in sight, we retain our negative view of ZTO


ZTO Express Q225 Results: No 'Good', Just the 'Bad' and the 'Ugly'

Germany

Deutsche Post AG provides mail delivery and other services to the public and businesses. The Company offers domestic mail delivery, international parcel and mail delivery services, and freight delivery and logistics services.

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Deutsche Post (DHL GR)

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

The end of the US "de minimis" loophole has already decimated inbound parcel volume. It will also alter the business models used by SHEIN & Temu,...

Tracking Traffic

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 5 September (DHL / Evri | e-Commerce & Logistics)

In this edition: • DHL | DHL e-Commerce UK / Evri merger receives unconditional approval • e-Commerce and Logistics | Shein fined EUR 150m for...

The IDEA!

Monthly Air Cargo Tracker | May-July Data Shows Soft Demand, Ample Capacity, Lower Yields

A look at July yields, load factors, and tonnage growth in July suggests an Asian air cargo market that has plenty of supply to meet moderating...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba's Logistics Arm CaiNiao Relegated To "Others" Status | Implications for Chinese Express?

As part of its June quarter earnings release last week, Alibaba effectively "demoted" logistics arm CaiNiao by pushing it into a new "Others"...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q225 Results: No 'Good', Just the 'Bad' and the 'Ugly'

ZTO reported a weak set of results for Q225, with margins and cash flow declining sharply. Management also cut FY25 volume growth targets. We...

Tracking Traffic

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