Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • a.s.r. Nederland | solid 1H26; Aegon integration completed, momentum intact • ING | reduces stake in TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) • InPost | EU clearance for the proposed takeover of InPost by the consortium • Alfen | reiterates FY26 as well as FY27 guidance • TomTom | Orbis Maps selected by Cedar Electronics • E-commerce & Logistics | Amazon brings AWD to Europe</li></ul>

In this edition: • a.s.r. Nederland | solid 1H26; Aegon integration completed, momentum intact • ING | reduces stake in TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) • InPost | EU clearance for the proposed takeover of InPost by the consortium • Alfen | reiterates FY26 as well as FY27 guidance • TomTom | Orbis Maps selected by Cedar Electronics • E-commerce & Logistics | Amazon brings AWD to Europe

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Ctt-Correios De Portugal Sa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises worldwide semiconductor market outlook upward again just two months after initial dizzying revision • bnode | lowers FY26 adj. EBIT guidance due to strikes and Paxon • Austrian Post | 1H26 revenue up, earnings down as expected; outlook reaffirmed • E-commerce & Logistics | Cainiao launches ‘Global 3-Day Delivery’ on 15 routes</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises worldwide semiconductor market outlook upward again just two months after initial dizzying revision • bnode | lowers FY26 adj. EBIT guidance due to strikes and Paxon • Austrian Post | 1H26 revenue up, earnings down as expected; outlook reaffirmed • E-commerce & Logistics | Cainiao launches ‘Global 3-Day Delivery’ on 15 routes

CTT-Correios de Portugal SA - What's News in Amsterdam

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

SHEIN Global Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st</li>
<li>Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting </li>
<li>For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous</li>
</ul>


Crucial US "de minimis" imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st
Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting 
For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous


May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

<ul>
<li>Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29</li>
<li>In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process</li>
<li>We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress</li>
</ul>


Postal parcel volume bound for the US fell -81% after exemption ended Aug 29
In many cases, logistics providers unwilling to manage US Customs process
We believe the change undermines US model used by SHEIN, Temu, AliExpress


SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

Germany

Deutsche Post AG provides mail delivery and other services to the public and businesses. The Company offers domestic mail delivery, international parcel and mail delivery services, and freight delivery and logistics services.

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Deutsche Post (DHL GR)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 19 August (asr NL | ING | InPost | Alfen | TomTom | E-com & Logistics)

In this edition: • a.s.r. Nederland | solid 1H26; Aegon integration completed, momentum intact • ING | reduces stake in TMBThanachart Bank...

The IDEA!

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

CTT-Correios de Portugal SA - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises worldwide semiconductor market outlook upward...

The IDEA!

May 1st Marks End of US "De Minimis" Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

Now that fast-fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong (July 27), we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN / Temu / AliExpress: After US Ended "De Minimis" Exemption, Shipments to US Declined 81%

Now that fast-fashion giant SHEIN has finally filed offering documents in Hong Kong (July 27), we believe it's a good time to revisit the company's...

Tracking Traffic

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