Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC US)

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

<ul>
<li>In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.</li>
<li>After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.


Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. At the same time, we are seeing signs that the worst of the declines may be behind us as global cyclical Sectors show RS improvements while defensive Sectors display early signs of RS deterioration.  In this report we review important technical levels for developed and EM indexes, and highlight a number of attractive opportunities across markets and sectors.

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation for continued downward pressure on global equities remains intact. At the same time, we are seeing signs that the worst of the declines may be behind us as global cyclical Sectors show RS improvements while defensive Sectors display early signs of RS deterioration.  In this report we review important technical levels for developed and EM indexes, and highlight a number of attractive opportunities across markets and sectors.

Global Indexes Approaching Major Resistance

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities remains extremely cautious and we expect downward consolidation to continue. Equity prices will need to show signs of bottoming in order for this outlook to change.  In our December International Strategy, we explore various themes which lead to our cautious outlook, provide a technical appraisal of major world markets, explore a possible bottom in the Chinese market, and highlight attractive setups in the Consumer Staples, Communications, Health Care, and Utilities Sectors.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities remains extremely cautious and we expect downward consolidation to continue. Equity prices will need to show signs of bottoming in order for this outlook to change.  In our December International Strategy, we explore various themes which lead to our cautious outlook, provide a technical appraisal of major world markets, explore a possible bottom in the Chinese market, and highlight attractive setups in the Consumer Staples, Communications, Health Care, and Utilities Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Cautious Outlook Intact; Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership

Germany

Deutsche Telekom AG offers telecommunications services.  The Company offers a full range of fixed-line telephone services, mobile communications services, Internet access, and combined information technology and telecommunications services for businesses.

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Deutsche Telekom (DTE GR)

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the $SPX 4100-4165 area. Upgrading...

Vermilion Research

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

Global Indexes Approaching Major Resistance

Broad global indexes are bumping up against logical downtrend resistance. As a result, our outlook remains cautious and our baseline expectation...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Cautious Outlook Intact; Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are testing 52-week lows as prices have been consolidating over the last 1-2 months. Our outlook for global equities...

Vermilion Research

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